AFL SuperCoach 2024: The Phantom’s burning questions and full trade plan

Take the value pick or go with the top-liner? In this week’s burning questions, The Phantom reveals his ultimate SuperCoach trade plan through the byes. Has he got it right?

“Start the car!”

That was me to Mrs. Phantom last week running out of the SuperCoach fallen premium sale with Bailey Dale at $457k before anyone realised I had basically robbed them.

There’s no denying everyone loves a bargain – and most of the time a good deal is a good deal.

But sometimes it’s, well, not.

Are you talking about Tom Green, Phant?

Too soon. Technically, he fits into the latter category, but that was just bad luck.

What I am talking about is the cheap SuperCoach premium we jump on every year that we work out in the end is that price for a reason.

In 2023, Sydney skipper Callum Mills – who averaged 117 the previous season – was available for $430k after the bye rounds.

Plenty jumped on, and he averaged 88 over the next 10 matches.

There’s still value in Bailey Dale. Picture: Will Russell/AFL Photos

So, don’t jump on the value then?

I’m not saying that, but it’s just a warning. Not all value is real.

Bailey Dale was – and still is. So, too, was Jordan Dawson. And I paid less than $600k for Green, Walsh and Steele, keeping to my early take-the-value-when-it’s-there strategy.

It’s a strategy that allows – all going well – for a complete team sooner.

And I don’t think any of those names above are a compromise – but there comes a point when just the value isn’t enough.

With 40 trades this year, don’t compromise on your premium targets. If you don’t think they are a top 6-8 – 10 in the midfield – chance in their position from the point you trade them in, reconsider – depending on the price, of course.

One word answer then, Phant… Clayton Oliver?

Yes.

Straight the point – you’ve changed.

The protective glove is off, the history is there and the price is ridiculous.

Tom Stewart?

I need more than one word on this, sorry.

While he hit the ground running in his return from concussion, the Geelong star faded in the second half to finish with 104 points.

Ignoring the concussion-affected score in round 6, that gives him a four-round average of 97.

On the other hand, Docker Luke Ryan is averaging 134 in his past four matches, and the same figure across the season – 16 points more than the second-ranked Nick Daicos.

When the gap is that big, and the Dockers have the SuperCoach point-leaking Saints in two weeks, the value becomes secondary – especially given Ryan’s extraordinary ceiling in the best SuperCoach role in the game that could hurt you every week.

Luke Ryan scored 197 SuperCoach points on Sunday. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

So just spend all my money on Ryan then?

You could, yes. That’s what I am considering before he gets too far out of reach.

But consider how what you do this week fits in with what you are doing over the next month – and beyond.

How much money do you need next week? How many premium spots do you have left to fill?

With a variety of different options available, the answers to these types of questions should probably dictate your trades more so than another week this year.

What’s your plan then, Phant?

How long you got?

We’re used to it…

Here it is then.

Subject to changes of course.

Ha. I mean subject to pending SuperCoach carnage and bye-round doom.

But it’s, at least, what I will be working off.

If more value pops up along the way, I’ll take it, but, otherwise, it’s time for a few big guns.

For context, I am ranked 5086 and have 21 trades and no boosts left ahead of round 9.

ROUND 9

OUT: Jason Horne-Francis ($485,000 MID), Sam Darcy ($314,900 FWD),
IN: Luke Ryan ($644,200 DEF), Darcy Jones ($117,300 FWD)
REMAINING SALARY: $50,700
TRADES LEFT: 19

I am $600 short of downgrading Darcy and upgrading Sam Clohesy to Tom Stewart – so I’ve pivoted to Ryan, before his match-up with St Kilda in two weeks. And the move actually opens things up the following round. You know I’m a big Horne-Francis fan, but he’s still too up-and-down – and that’s just during a game. I want Oliver in his spot, so he’s the ticket to Ryan. Doing Oliver this week and Ryan next might not work.

Is Clayton Oliver back? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

ROUND 10

*All prices are estimates from here.

OUT: Sam Clohesy ($291,400 MID-DEF), Will Graham ($297,000 MID-DEF),
IN: Clayton Oliver ($510,000 MID), Lachie Sullivan ($102,400 MID),
REMAINING SALARY: $26,700
TRADES LEFT: 17

That price is based on Oliver scoring 120 on Thursday night against the Blues. Ideally, he doesn’t, but I will have some cash in reserve if the star Demon goes big.

Saint Jack Hayes is the other one to watch, with Tom Powell to Hayes an alternative move if he backs up his round 8 SuperCoach ton and becomes a must-have. But it would make the Oliver trade tight.

That’s the defence and midfield finished – for now.

ROUND 11

OUT: Tom Powell ($385,000 FWD), Riley Garcia ($250,000 MID-FWD),
IN: Izak Rankine ($510,000 FWD), Rookie ($102k-$123k)
REMAINING SALARY: $28,000
TRADES LEFT: 15

Powell will roughly hold his price with scores around the 75-80 mark over the next two weeks – and with the ball likely to be on the deck up at TIO Stadium on Saturday night, he’s a chance.

Even two low Rankine tons and he’d be in reach. And, boy, with the Crows facing the Eagles, Hawks and Tigers in the following three weeks, I hope he is.

These moves would leave me with a forward line of Isaac Heeney, Sam Flanders, Luke Jackson, Izak Rankine, Harley Reid, Darcy Wilson.

ROUND 12

OUT: Darcy Wilson ($415,000 MID-FWD), Darcy Jones ($255,000 FWD), Hugo Garcia ($235,000 FWD-MID)
IN: Dylan Moore ($580,000 FWD), two rookies (123k)
REMAINING SALARY: $107,000
TRADES LEFT: 12
BYE-ROUND PREMOS: 16 + Harley Reid and Jordon Sweet

With an average of 80 over the next three rounds, boom Saints rookie Wilson can get to $415k. It could be Harley Reid going out here, too, but the Eagles have St Kilda and North Melbourne at home in the first two mid-season bye rounds. Go for ceiling in best-18 weeks.

The above are conservative estimates for Jones and Garcia, but hopefully it’s all enough for another premium forward.

The big question we’ve all been asking still remains unanswered, though – who else is in the top six?

My new friend in The Lair, Dos, tells me it’s Moore. And, after a slight uptick in centre bounce attendance and scores of 116, 136 and 140 in the past three weeks, maybe he’s right.

The Hawk has done this before, though, so I haven’t committed yet. But, again, who else? Dayne Zorko has the bye in round 12.

The Phantom wants to finish his side with Tim English at R2. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

ROUND 13

OUT: Jordan Sweet ($400,000 RUCK), Lachie Sullivan ($250,000 MID),
IN: Tim English ($650,000 RUCK), Rookie ($102,400)
REMAINING SALARY: Not much
TRADES LEFT: 10
BYE-ROUND PREMOS: 17 + Harley Reid

Sorry Tim English owners, we don’t want a third consecutive 130 this weekend. But the $650k projection is based on about a 120-point average, so we just need Sweet to hit $400k – and he will do that with an 85-point average until Port’s round 13 bye.

Ideally, you traded in English last week at a discount of more than $120k, but stay on the Sweet money train until the Power has the week off. The English upgrade just leaves Reid at F6.

And, yes, I’m being hopeful with the rookies here, I know.

ROUND 14

OUT: Harley Reid($410,000 FWD-MID), Rookie
IN: Dayne Zorko ($580,000 MID-FWD), Rookie
BYE-ROUND PREMOS: 17

Still with me? There’s one more upgrade to go. This sure is an easy game on paper.

Unless he’s gone back-to-back 100s against the Saints and Roos, Reid’s time might be up.

I’m not 100 per cent locked in on the target but, if he’s still on the field and flying at half-back, it might have to be Dayne Zorko – even at $580k – ahead of a meeting with the Saints.

If that is possible in two trades, I’d have eight left with a full team and a forward line featuring Heeney, Flanders, Zorko, Moore, Rankine, Jackson.

Zorko and Moore would be top-price options, so there will be room to adjust if value pops up. Will they even be the best options by this point? It’s hard to say given this year’s forward line.

ROUND 15

BYE-ROUND PREMOS: 13

This one might hurt, but if you’re low in any bye-round, it should be the final one, given the ability to trade to adjust in the previous three weeks. I’ll try to get up to 15 premiums with potential sideways moves, depending on form, with Matt Crouch, Bailey Dale or Jack Steele.

Six trades will be enough for injury and suspensions, right?

Let’s not think about that yet.

Originally published as AFL SuperCoach 2024: The Phantom’s burning questions and full trade plan