AFL predictions 2022: We analyse each club’s win/loss tally

Every side will enter the 2022 season with hope. But who will quickly fall on the wrong side of the win-loss ledger? Find out here.

How many games will your team win this season? TAB has produced an under/over for every club and our footy writers Scott Gullan, Glenn McFarlane and Jay Clark have delivered their verdicts ahead of the 2022 season. It could be bad news for St Kilda and West Coast, while Collingwood could spring a surprise after a tumultuous year. What does your crystal ball say?

ADELAIDE

MACCA’S TIP: UNDER 7.5 wins ($1.87)

Seven wins last year, but suspect this season will be every bit as challenging on the field. In many ways, 2022 will be about development and game time for the kids as much as wins and losses. Jordan Dawson is a great pick-up, Josh Rachele is going to be some sort of player and Riley Thilthorpe will derive plenty of benefit from his first year. Crows coach Matthew Nicks will have one eye on the present and one eye on the future, so we’re expecting a status-quo season in wins/losses.

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BRISBANE

MACCA’S TIP: OVER 14.5 wins ($1.87)

This is a flip of the coin in terms of whether they can match last year’s 15 wins for the home-and-away season. I’m still glass half full with the Lions, but surely a finals win this year is a bare pass mark for a team with so much talent. Cam Rayner is back, Zac Bailey is ready to go to the elite level and they have a relatively young list full of potential. If they can tighten up team defence, it might yet prove the September difference.

CARLTON

MACCA’S TIP: OVER 9.5 wins ($1.70)

This looks like a good bet. Surely the Blues will win 10 or more games this season under new coach Michael Voss as they push towards another finals appearance. Sam Walsh won’t be out for too long, Patrick Cripps will hopefully be back to his best, Adam Cerra and George Hewett are good inclusions, and the key forward ‘Harry and Charlie Show’ will be one worth watching. Over to you, Blues.

COLLINGWOOD

MACCA’S TIP: OVER 7.5 wins ($1.65)

Teams with new coaches often get a mini-spike and the early evidence is this could be the case with Collingwood under Craig McRae. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Magpies still have a long way to go. But there is still plenty of experience with Pendlebury, Moore, Maynard, De Goey, Grundy, Adams, Crisp, Howe, Sidebottom and Elliott as well as young talent of Daicos (x2), Quaynor, Henry, Macrae and others can lift the Magpies to eight wins.

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ESSENDON

MACCA’S TIP: OVER 11.5 wins ($1.80)

I’m not quite as buoyant as Mick Malthouse on the Bombers, but I do think Ben Rutten’s team can break an almost two decade finals drought this year. There is a sense of excitement about Essendon, which we haven’t seen for a long time. The kids look really good; the midfield looks potent and dangerous; and defence is strong. The most telling question is: Can they manufacture enough goals from this forward line? Surely they can win at least one more game than last year (11) to cover the overs line here.

FREMANTLE

MACCA’S TIPS: OVER 9.5 wins ($1.72)

Judging by the way they systematically smashed the Eagles in a practice match, the Dockers might well be one of the sleepers of 2022. They won 10 matches last year and it is hard to see them going backwards this year, particularly given the WA borders will be open again. Justin Longmuir’s team will be pushing for the finals, which means they 11 wins. Nat Fyfe will work between mid and forward, Sean Darcy can give the onballers first use and the midfield still looks good, even without Cerra. It’s going to be a fun watch for Dockers fans.

GEELONG

Clarky’s tip: Over 13.5 wins ($1.75)

Looks like a low line for everything we’re hearing about Jeremy Cameron this preseason. The key forward is flying and a strong Coleman Medal chance. A quicker game style, more one-on-ones forward, home ground advantage, plus a knuckled-down Tyson Stengle should see the Cats sneak over the 13.5 wins.

GOLD COAST

Clarky’s tip: Over 5.5 wins ($1.60)

Surely. Even despite the loss of Ben King, Gold Coast should be able to manage a minimum six wins for the season. Ex-Richmond tall Mabior Chol can help fill the King void and there enough high draft picks in that team to keep Kevin Sheehan talking for hours. Alastair Clarkson probably still gets the job if he wants it, but the Suns should shine enough to salute the overs in this one.

GWS

Clarky’s tip: Under 11.5 wins ($1.75)

It’s line-ball this one. On their day the Giants can still turn on a blinder against the top teams, but Tim Taranto will have to play a key role filling in for Toby Greene in attack throughout the first five games. They looked good against the Swans in the preseason and have the midfield stars to book another berth in September. Small bet.

HAWTHORN

Clarky’s tip: Under 7.5 wins ($1.90)

They’re on the right path with the rebuild, the Hawks, but it wouldn’t surprise if Sam Mitchell’s first year in charge is a tough one. They were 2-11 over the first three months last year and will surely play more youngsters in 2022. The brown and gold need to invest in the kids and will again consider trading off some stars for more early picks. Going to be a big story either way.

MELBOURNE

Clarky’s tip: Under 16.5 wins ($1.65)

The Demons could embarrass me on this one given the way they’re talking about capitalizing on the flag window. And the signs against the Kangaroos in the preseason were ominous. But there are plenty of top-line challenges looking to pop the balloon including Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Richmond and Geelong. Melbourne don’t appear to have any real weaknesses but who knows with COVID-19. Can the Dees stay hungry? That’s the big question.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Clarky’s tip: Over 6.5 wins ($1.65)

Should get some lift-off after taking out the spoon last year. Have to admire the talent building in the midfield, Aidan Corr adds to the back line and Callum-Coleman Jones is a strong body they need in attack. Still a bottom-four side, but the Roos should sing the song enough to deliver on the overs.

PORT ADELAIDE

SCOTT’S TIP: Over 14.5 wins ($1.87)

They won 17 last year, 14 in a shortened season in 2020 so Ken Hinkley’s boys are a good bet to continue delivering during the home and away season. Watch for Zak Butters to elevate to a new level to ensure it happens.

RICHMOND

SCOTT’S TIP: Over 13.5 wins ($1.95)

Don’t think for a minute last year’s debacle was a sign of the empire crumbling. Word out of Punt Rd is that a number of the stars – ie Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Toby Nankervis – are refreshed and reinvigorated while coach Damien Hardwick sounds like a man on a mission.

ST KILDA

SCOTT’S TIP: Under 10.5 wins ($1.80)

There is an eerie feeling the Saints may have missed this window and will go down again before getting another opportunity to rise. An old list and injury worries already popping up are major red flags for a team who only won 10 games last year.

SYDNEY

SCOTT’S TIP: Over 13.5 wins ($2.10)

Stunning turnaround last season after a horror 2020, winning 15 games before bombing out in first week of finals. Have found some quality young players and if Buddy Franklin shows up for more than half-the-season they could even evolve into a legitimate premiership contender.

WEST COAST

SCOTT’S TIP: Under 10.5 wins ($1.60)

Have train wreck written all over them already. The injuries keep coming with so many guns having an interrupted summer with captain Luke Shuey, Dom Sheed, Liam Duggan, Jamie Cripps, Elliott Yeo, Oscar Allen and Jack Darling all set to miss a large part of the new season.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

SCOTT’S TIP: Over 15.5 wins ($2.25)

Tricky bet in the sense that the Dogs normally like to just do enough in the home and away season and then surge through finals. But with the hurt of last year’s GF and Aaron Naughton becoming the best forward in the game, back Bevo’s boys to have a dominant year.

SCOTT GULLAN’S BEST BETS:

West Coast under 10.5, Carlton over 9.5, Collingwood over 7.5.

JAY CLARK’S BEST BETS:

West Coast under 10.5, Fremantle over 9.5 wins, Collingwood over 7.5

GLENN McFARLANE’S BEST BETS:

West Coast under 10.5, Carlton over 9.5, Collingwood over 7.5, Essendon 11.5

Originally published as AFL predictions 2022: We analyse each club’s win/loss tally