AFL news 2024: How Sam Mitchell’s Hawthorn can plot its path to finals

Hawthorn is on track for an miracle finals berth. However, MATTHEW FORREST writes that three clubs have the chance to spoil the party for the Hawks.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JULY 20: Nick Watson of the Hawks celebrates a goal during the round 19 AFL match between Hawthorn Hawks and Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on July 20, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

They are the AFL’s most entertaining show, and after an 11-goal win over the reigning premiers, the Hawks are alive in the hunt for September.

Collingwood is set to be the second-straight flag defenders to miss the top eight, following in the footsteps of Geelong last season, with the Pies now 13th on the ladder; two wins and percentage outside of the finals race.

The 66-point victory gave the Hawks a much-needed percentage boost, jumping from 95.4 per cent to 100.1 per cent, and with five weeks to go in the season, Sam Mitchell’s men are a red-hot chance to feature in finals.

Since the 76-point loss to Sydney in round 7, which dropped them to 17th with a 1-6 record, the Hawks have turned into one of the best teams in the competition.

While the game against Collingwood was a quasi-elimination final in July, every game on the run home for the Hawks is crucial if they want to climb into the top eight.

The percentage booster that was the win over Collingwood has given the Hawks a bit of flexibility with its run home.

Before the game, Hawthorn would have needed five wins from its last six games to make finals.

Thirteen wins is looking like the bare minimum to make finals in 2024, and for the Hawks it’d have to be 14 wins with a poor percentage compared to other finalists.

But a positive percentage means three wins could be enough for the Hawks, provided there is another big win on the horizon.

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Connor Macdonald celebrates after kicking a goal in the Hawks’ rampaging win over Collingwood. Picture: Graham Denholm/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.

HOW DO THEY GET THERE?

If the Hawks are to play finals in 2024, they will need to beat Adelaide, Richmond and North Melbourne.

One of those wins will need to a ruthless win, ideally by at least 10 goals to help boost the percentage.

Hawthorn will definitely play finals if it wins all five games on the run home, and would even likely host an elimination final if they do.

If the Hawks secure a win over the Giants as well, they’ll jump them and finish in seventh, while a win over the Blues but not the Giants would be enough to secure eighth.

The three-month transformation from the Hawks has them primed for finals.

Only the Hawks and Brisbane have won nine of their past 11 games, while Hawthorn’s percentage (126 per cent) since round 8 is third-best behind Sydney (139.2 per cent) and the Lions (134.8 per cent).

Hawthorn is the best defensive team in that time span, conceding on average 71.9 points per game, having been the third worst defensive side (96.9 points per game) in the opening seven matches.

OTHER SIDES THAT WILL SHAPE THE EIGHT

Port Adelaide is currently fifth on the ladder but face a tough run home in order to play finals, with games against Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Fremantle.

The round 23 Showdown will play a massive part in shaping the finals picture; on ladder positions it’s a game the Power should win, but Adelaide has been much improved in recent weeks and has won four of the past five Showdowns.

The round 24 clash against the Dockers could be an elimination final for Port Adelaide as well.

Can Willie Rioli and the Power make waves come the pointy end of the season? Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images.

The Bulldogs’ big win at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday has shaken the build of the ladder a bit.

A healthy percentage has Luke Beveridge’s men leading the other 10-win teams but they still sit outside the top eight at the end of round 19.

With Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, North Melbourne and GWS to come, it’s not a stretch for the Bulldogs to finish on 14 wins.

But the round 24 game against the Giants could be one that decides the fate of both sides. With both sides boasting healthy percentages (Western Bulldogs 117.7 per cent and GWS Giants 112.2 cent), 13 wins would likely be enough to finish inside the top eight, but if the Hawks topple the Giants in round 21, this becomes a knockout game for Adam Kingsley’s side.

Marcus Bontempelli and the Bulldogs are firming as favourites to make the eight. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Essendon’s loss against Adelaide on Friday night has the Bombers teetering on the edge of finals.

The draw they secured on Anzac Day means their poor percentage will likely have no impact, unless the Bombers finish equal on points with Fremantle or Brisbane, who are both in the top four at the end of round 19.

The round 20 clash against St Kilda is shaping to be a season-defining one for Essendon; lose and the Bombers have little-to-no chance of securing a top-eight finish.

But the loss against Adelaide means the Bombers will need to beat one of Fremantle (at MCG), Sydney (at Marvel Stadium) or Brisbane (at the Gabba), while also beating St Kilda and Gold Coast. It’s a tough run from here.

Will Essendon make the eight? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Originally published as AFL news 2024: How Sam Mitchell’s Hawthorn can plot its path to finals