AFL ladder predictor: Analysing the run home with two rounds to go
They have won two of their last eight games but the Tigers remain in with a shot of making the finals. However, they need other results to go their way.
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The race for top-eight and top-four spots had another shake-up in Round 21, with some teams rising and the hopes of others fading.
With just two rounds to go, we’ve taken a look at how the rest of the season could play out — and who will make the finals cut.
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1. MELBOURNE
Record: 15-1-4, 130.7%
R22: Adelaide (W)
R23: Geelong (L)
WE SAY: The Demons took back top spot from the Western Bulldogs as they held on to a nine-point win over West Coast in Perth on Monday night. Melbourne has now won its past two matches after a shaky month before that. The Demons sit two points clear on top and face Adelaide this weekend – a side they lost to by a point back in Round 10. It’s hard to see the Crows causing an upset again. However, will the Demons be able to topple Geelong in the final round? They won by 25 points when the sides last met in Round 4, but at this stage I’m leaning towards the Cats.
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.50
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Record: 15-5, 138.1%
R22: Hawthorn (W)
R23: Port Adelaide (W)
WE SAY: The Bulldogs coughed up top spot on the ladder with a surprise 13-point defeat to Essendon on Sunday, which was made a lot worse by the loss of key forward Josh Bruce to a season-ending ACL injury in the closing stages. Still, you’d expect the Bulldogs to win their last two games. A league-leading percentage means that if Melbourne falls in one of its last two matches and the Bulldogs win both games, the team from the west will secure its first ever minor premiership.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.25
3. GEELONG
Record: 15-5, 129.1%
R22: St Kilda (W)
R23: Melbourne (W)
WE SAY: The Cats were a little flat against Greater Western Sydney last Friday night in a 19-point loss but it was not too much cause for concern given injuries and the fact they had six more scoring shots. You’d back Geelong in to win its final two games, which would see it secure a top-two spot. The expected return of key forward Jeremy Cameron this week will be a big boost.
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4
4. PORT ADELAIDE
Record: 15-5, 121.3%
R22: Carlton (W)
R23: Western Bulldogs (L)
WE SAY: A four-point win over Adelaide in the Showdown last weekend has all but locked in a top-four finish for the Power, who are now two games clear of fifth-placed Brisbane. The only way that Port can miss the double-chance now is if it was to lose its last two games and Brisbane was to win its final two matches. With a struggling Carlton side to come this week for the Power, it’s hard to see that happening.
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $8
5. BRISBANE LIONS
Record: 13-7, 128.1%
R22: Collingwood (W)
R23: West Coast Eagles (W)
WE SAY: After a poor previous month, Brisbane bounced back with a commanding 64-point win over Fremantle on the weekend. Unfortunately, it appears to be too little, too late as far as top-four hopes are concerned. The Lions would need to win their last two games and rely on either Port Adelaide or Geelong losing their last two to secure the double chance. But, regardless, finding form heading into finals is a good thing and the Lions should extend their winning run to three matches entering September.
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $9
6 SYDNEY
Record: 13-7, 115%
R22: North Melbourne (W)
R23: Gold Coast (W)
WE SAY: Any slim top-four hopes were extinguished on Saturday night when the Swans suffered a surprise 29-point loss to St Kilda. Two bottom-five sides are still to come, both of which have showed a bit at stages over the back half of the year and won’t be pushovers. However, you’d expect Sydney to win its last two games and enter September on a winning note.
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $11
7. WEST COAST
Record: 10-10, 95.5%
R22: Fremantle (W)
R23: Brisbane (L)
WE SAY: The Eagles’ spot in the top-eight is highly vulnerable, especially given its poor percentage. West Coast was little match for Melbourne on Monday night, trailing by as much as 34 points in the last quarter before rallying a little at the end to kick the last four goals. History tells us that West Coast has won its past 11 games against Fremantle dating back to 2015, so you’d tip the Eagles to continue that streak in Round 22. But unless it beats Brisbane in the final round, West Coast is likely to miss the finals cut on percentage.
PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $51
8. GWS GIANTS
Record: 9-1-10, 96.4%
R22: Richmond (W)
R23: Carlton (W)
WE SAY: A massive upset win over Geelong last Friday night against all odds means a finals spot is now the Giants’ to lose. The key to reaching September is clearly the Round 22 clash against Richmond. Win that and knock over Carlton in the final round and the Giants are in — and could finish as high as seventh. But lose to the Tigers and GWS is likely to miss the cut. Based on recent form, you have to back in the Giants to get there — and hopefully they get some players back from injury in time for an elimination final.
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $41
9. ESSENDON
Record: 9-11, 103.4%
R22: Gold Coast (W)
R23: Collingwood (W)
WE SAY: The Bombers knocked off ladder-leader Western Bulldogs by 13 points in a result that not many saw coming last weekend to make the finals dream a realistic reality. The Bombers have two bottom-five sides to come and will be heavily favoured to win both matches. The equation for Essendon is fairly simple — it needs to win both games and rely on either West Coast or GWS losing at least one of their final two matches. A healthy percentage works in Essendon’s favour when it comes to jumping the Eagles.
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $51
10. RICHMOND
Record: 9-11, 100.1%
R22: GWS (L)
R23: Hawthorn (W)
WE SAY: An 11-goal-to-three second half against North Melbourne on Sunday looked a lot like the Richmond of old, but perhaps we should not get too sucked in to one good half. The fact is the Tigers had kicked just two goals in the first half against the bottom-of-the-table Kangaroos and they have won just two of their past eight matches. If the Tigers win their last two games and West Coast or Essendon drop at least one more game, Richmond is in September for a fifth successive year. But GWS has a far better form line than the Tigers right now and Hawthorn is proving itself to be a potentially dangerous side in the second half of the season. A massive game awaits against the Giants this weekend, but it’s hard to see the Tigers scraping in at this stage.
PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $26
11. ST KILDA
Record: 9-11, 88.2%
R22: Geelong (L)
R23: Fremantle (W)
WE SAY: Mathematically, the Saints are still a fighting finals chance after pulling off an upset win over Sydney on Saturday night. But a poor percentage means they would have to win their last two games and rely on a host of other things falling their way. Not going to happen.
PREDICTED FINISH: 11th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $251
12 FREMANTLE
Record: 9-10, 87.7%
R22: West Coast (L)
R23: St Kilda (L)
WE SAY: The Dockers were tracking along nicely before being brought back down to earth with a 64-point loss to Brisbane last weekend. Like the Saints, they are still a mathematical finals chance, but that’s where it stops. A poor percentage – and a lengthy injury list – means Fremantle is all but out of the race.
PREDICTED FINISH: 12th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $251
FINAL PREDICTED LADDER AFTER ROUND 23
1. Western Bulldogs (68 pts)
2. Geelong (68)
3. Melbourne (66)
4. Port Adelaide (64)
5. Brisbane Lions (60)
6. Sydney (60)
7. GWS Giants (46)
8. Essendon (44)
------------------------------
9. West Coast (44)
10. Richmond (40)
11. St Kilda (40)
12. Fremantle (36)
13. Carlton (32)
14. Gold Coast (28)
15. Hawthorn (26)
16. Collingwood (24)
17. Adelaide (24)
18. North Melbourne (22)
What week one of finals would look like...
QF: Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
QF: Geelong v Melbourne
EF: Brisbane Lions v Essendon
EF: Sydney v GWS Giants
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Originally published as AFL ladder predictor: Analysing the run home with two rounds to go
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