AFL Ladder Predictor 2023: Our experts predict where every team will finish, week one finals fixture
They need a win and face a depleted opponent, but our experts are split on whether the Bulldogs will play in September. See how our experts expect week one of the finals to look.
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One week to go and the make up of the top eight is still anyone’s guess. Home finals, avoiding the rampaging Blues and actually locking in a spot are all up for grabs. Our AFL experts run their eye over the round 24 matches and have their view on what the ladder and consequentially how week 1 of finals will look.
I reckon the Giants are a better team than the Dogs but don’t think they can beat Carlton. And the Dogs have to better against a Cats team who could be depleted. The Giants would be stiff but not as stiff as Adelaide.
North Melbourne gets the No. 1 draft pick, GWS qualifies for finals in Adam Kingsley’s first season as coach and Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, Carlton and St Kilda get to host home finals. In what looks as one of the most open finals series in recent memory, this final round should set up a highly-anticipated September.
Greater Western Sydney could have everything to play for in the final game of the home-and-away season and the Blues might be in preservation mode by then.
So given the Cats seem to be resting a spate of players there is every chance the Dogs find a way to get it done at GMHBA Stadium – fired up after an insipid loss to the Eagles – before the Giants jump over the top of them as their miserly defence holds up against Charlie Curnow and co.
I’m not giving up on the Dogs. With some big names out at Geelong, expect a determined response from Luke Beveridge’s men down at the Cattery to seal eighth spot. The Saints will win a final, and the Melbourne-Collingwood qualifying final will pack-out the MCG.
Finally, the top-eight on the ladder looks set. The city of Melbourne should be rocking in the first week of September with three finals, along with a fourth in Brisbane. The Western Bulldogs haven’t beaten Geelong at Kardinia Park since 2003 and I can’t see that streak ending this weekend. All four top-eight sides should secure wins. Melbourne has the toughest task of that group against Sydney at the SCG, but the Demons did thump the Swans by 50 points back in round 3 at the MCG.
How can you possibly back the Dogs to make a play for the eight after a dismal last fortnight? GWS will know before Sunday’s season-closer against Carlton if that final spot in the eight is on the line or not but again, you just can’t rely on the Bulldogs to make a game of it this weekend. Fascinatingly, the Blues and Giants will meet again in an elimination final if this ladder shakes out. A qualifying final blockbuster between Melbourne and Collingwood is an intriguing pivot point for the finals series, who starts favourite at the MCG?
It’s going to be a bit of an anti-climax with just the one finals spot up for grabs. If GWS make it then Adam Kingsley should be right in the mix for coach of the year but John Longmire could also be a sniff if Sydney can finish sixth given the Swans end to the year. Melbourne will be happy to finish fourth and take on Collingwood at the MCG, while for the second time in three weeks we will have a Carlton and Giants clash.
If the Dogs couldn’t get themselves up to defeat a historically poor West Coast with finals on the line, it’s difficult seeing them getting the job done at Kardinia Park to sneak into September. The top eight should now be set in stone but we will learn a lot about the contenders and pretenders this weekend. Have the Lions, Blues and Dees all winning their pre-finals litmus tests against top eight rivals and for Brisbane that crucially means locking in a home qualifying final.
There won’t be any change to the top eight as Geelong should end their season with a win against the Dogs at home. However, Sydney will rise to the occasion and beat the Dees in front of a packed-out SCG on Sunday and propel themselves to a home elimination final against St Kilda. The Giants are in good form and should win against a Carlton side already with one eye on the post-season, but the two teams are likely to meet again in the first week of the finals.
The Bulldogs can’t trip over themselves again – they just can’t. Have to break the drought at GMHBA Stadium to ensure they sneak that eighth spot. As for Brisbane, it could be the difference for a home final come week one of the finals. More valuable than a Taylor Swift ticket, that.
Originally published as AFL Ladder Predictor 2023: Our experts predict where every team will finish, week one finals fixture
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