AFL grand final 2024: Mick McGuane unpacks where the premiership decider will be won
The Sydney Swans have had an Achilles heel all season, and in the biggest game of the season it could well cost them. MICK McGUANE unpacks each side’s path to victory.
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The best two teams this year are set to do battle at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in the 2024 AFL Grand Final.
Can Sydney secure a premiership after finishing as minor premiers or will the Brisbane Lions make amends after finishing runners-up last September?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane puts his coaches’ hat on and details how he would attack the game for both sides.
Plus, Mick gives his nine key match-ups which could determine the contest.
IF I WAS SYDNEY…
START STRONG
The Swans have won 19 games this year — but they have only won 10 of a possible 25 opening quarters.
Across the home and away season, Sydney ranked as the fourth-worst side when it came to points differential in first quarters.
Coach John Longmire knows it has been an issue and will also know his side is coming up against a fast-starting Brisbane Lions outfit which has won 14 of its past 15 opening quarters.
Sydney has to be prepared to fight tooth and nail from the first centre bounce and try to gain some early momentum.
The Swans know what happens when you don’t get it right early, having lost the first quarter of the 2022 Grand Final to Geelong by 35 points on their way to an 81-point defeat.
Burying those demons with a hot start should — and probably will — be front of mind for the Sydney players.
STOPPAGE CONTROL
If you want to get away to a strong start, you need to bring some serious intensity where the game starts and stops — in the midfield.
Given the absence of Lions ruckman Oscar McInerney, Brodie Grundy has to be the most influential player on the ground for the Swans.
Grundy needs to dominate the hiouts and provide first-use of the footy to his gun midfield of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and James Rowbottom.
Lions back-up ruckman Darcy Fort is a competitor but has played just two AFL games this season and hasn’t played a match at any level for three weeks.
It’s Grundy’s time to shine and if he does, so will his side’s midfield group.
TAKE AWAY LIONS’ TRANSITION
The challenge for the Swans will be defending Brisbane’s transition play.
The Lions like to control the game by advancing up the field with uncontested marks and have recorded 100 or more marks in 14 of their 17 wins this season.
However, they also showed against Geelong in their preliminary final that they can attack in a different way through forward handball.
I thought I was watching Richmond of 2017 at times as Brisbane recorded a season-high 532 metres gained by handball last week to disrupt the Cats’ defensive structure and allow for open looks inside 50.
Sydney’s pressure game and defensive accountability must be incredibly high to defend the Lions’ transition by hand or foot.
When the Swans come forward to get in the face of the Brisbane ball carrier, they also need to ensure there is coverage outside the contest and there are off-side sliders to roll back behind the ball.
If there’s not, the Lions could leapfrog the ball to a player in space who can hit the scoreboard.
PUNISH TURNOVERS
This is going to be a high-pressure contest where both teams create plenty of turnovers.
The Swans have to ensure that they maximise the damage they do from Brisbane’s turnovers.
They need to create turnovers with manic pressure on the Lions’ ball carriers and then get the ball into the hands of their best and most creative ball users like Gulden, Nick Blakey, Heeney, Warner, Justin McInerney and Oliver Florent.
They have to bring a mindset not only to create turnovers but also to go forward at speed and score from them when the opportunities present.
Brisbane is a very good defensive side when it has time to get set.
However, the Lions can be exploited when the game is in chaos on a fast turnover, given their backmen like Harris Andrews like to zone-off.
MIDFIELD GOALKICKERS
The Sydney midfielders have been kicking goals all year but will need to slot a few more if the Swans are to salute on Saturday.
Warner (34 goals), Heeney (33 goals) and Gulden (15 goals) are all capable of being multiple goalkickers from the midfield and are setting up teammates in better positions when they’re not kicking snags themselves.
This group needs to challenge the workrate and defensive intent of the Brisbane on-ballers in a game that takes no prisoners.
IF I WERE THE BRISBANE LIONS…
PLAY OUR WAY
The Lions’ biggest strength is their onball brigade and they need to play their way despite the sizeable loss of injured ruckman McInerney.
McInerney had a huge impact when Brisbane last met the Swans in round 19, but don’t underestimate the competitiveness of Darcy Fort who is set to replace him.
The Lions will still have Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft around the ball.
As a collective, this group is highly competitive, is strong in contest and can extract the ball from inside and get it to a teammate in space on the outside to fuel the side’s territory game.
Brisbane ranks No. 1 for contested possession differential, No. 2 for clearance differential and No. 6 for points from clearances.
They have to put trust in Fort and continue to excel against what is also a strong Sydney midfield.
TERRITORY’S PRICELESS
If the Lions’ midfielders can win contest and clearance at the coalface, the territory that will result from that can challenge Sydney on two fronts.
Firstly, inside-50s will put the Swans’ defenders under constant pressure with one-on-one contests against a dangerous mix of Brisbane forwards.
Secondly, the Swans could find it incredibly difficult to exit their defensive 50 when they win the ball back, fuelling more scoring opportunities for the Lions.
Brisbane not only ranks second for time in forward half this season but also sits fourth for generating forward-half intercepts.
Contrast that with the fact that Sydney has coughed up the fourth-most defensive half turnovers this season and there’s an opportunity for the Lions to dine out.
Brisbane has to get the footy forward and lock it in there by squeezing the ground aggressively and denying the Swans space to work into — especially the corridor — when exiting their back half.
DEFEND DILIGENTLY
Lions co-captain Harris Andrews should have as hoarse a voice as anyone post-game on Saturday.
The key defender’s tell-and-yell instructions to his teammates must be assertive and aggressive, clear and concise to ensure all pockets of space are taken away from the Swans when they win the ball back further afield.
Andrews and the Lions’ other defenders must also reference and locate dangerous Sydney players spitting forward, because the Swans are an offensive juggernaut when they get going.
Sydney has averaged 97 points a game this season — ranked No. 1 — and players generally make the right decisions when entering their forward 50.
How the Lions set up ground behind the ball — with the help of traffic cop Andrews — will be crucial to the result.
TURNOVER GAME
Sydney is a side which makes you pay for turnovers.
The Swans rank No. 1 for points from turnovers at 56.3 per game.
When they have won the points from turnover battle this season, John Longmire’s side holds an 18-0 record.
The Lions will be aware of that and if their defensive structure is disjointed or their defensive starting points are poor it will be costly.
Quickly snapping into defensive transition if you turn over the ball is vital.
The Lions also need to ensure they hit the scoreboard themselves from turnovers they generate, through good decision making and effective ball use.
FORWARDS AT HOME
At times, the Lions should look to keep their six forwards at home.
The likes of Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron will roll up initially to saturate stoppages and find some footy.
But once the game settles down, Brisbane would be better off backing its midfield to operate in space rather than against a mass of numbers unless the Swans midfielders are on top in that area.
The other benefit of this is it will force all the Sydney defenders to defend one-on-one.
That’s better than having Dane Rampe play loose, win intercept marks to kickstart the Swans’ offence.
The likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Kai Lohmann, Cameron, Bailey and Rayner are all capable of winning one-on-one contests if they can get some separation and isolation.
9 KEY MATCH-UPS TO WATCH
MICK’S TIP
Sydney by 14 points
The Swans have held a high standard throughout the year, outside of one lean six-week patch. I expect Sydney’s transition game to be well-suited to the larger MCG surface and I think they have the maturity, experience and scoring ability to get over the line.
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