AFL Grand Final 2023 Collingwood v Brisbane: Best first goal scorer and most disposal picks and analysis

Which player will kick the first goal in this year’s grand final? It’s the question that dominates many conversations ahead of the first bounce. This will help you find the answer.

Brisbane spearhead Joe Daniher or Collingwood livewire Bobby Hill loom large among the likely first goalkickers in Saturday’s grand final.

Daniher (five) has slotted his team’s opening major more times this year than any player selected, while Hill leads the way for the Magpies in 2023 with four.

Former Bomber Daniher’s most recent first goal was against Richmond in round 16.

Ex-GWS goalsneak Hill’s came in Collingwood’s qualifying final victory over Melbourne three weeks ago.

Four players have booted the first major three times this year: Collingwood X-factors Jordan de Goey and Jamie Elliott, and Brisbane duo Zac Bailey and Lincoln McCarthy.

Magpies Tom Mitchell and Josh Daicos, and Lions Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage, Eric Hipwood and Jaspa Fletcher have opened their teams’ account twice each.

Bobby Hill for first goal? Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

In the previous meetings between the clubs this season, Collingwood midfielder Taylor Adams and Brisbane half-back Callum Ah Chee kicked the first goals.

Bizarrely, both of those came 1min and 9 sec into the match.

Champion Data expert Daniel Hoyne said statistics pointed to a Magpie booting the first one on Saturday.

“It has to be a Collingwood player,” Hoyne said.

“The first 10 minutes of matches this year, there is no better team in the competition than Collingwood.

“Brisbane rank 14th in the first 10 minutes of matches.”

Daniher and Elliott are TAB’s joint favourites ($10) to kick the opening major, ahead of Brody Mihocek, Charlie Cameron ($11) and Hipwood ($14).

Hill is $15.

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Charlie Cameron has booted 10 goals against Collingwood this year. Picture: Lachie Millard

When it comes to most disposals, Nick Daicos (averaging 31.1 in 2023), Lachie Neale (26.92), Josh Daicos (25.32), Mitchell (25.04) and Josh Dunkley (24.39) appear the likeliest candidates given they are the five highest possession winners in 2023.

Nick Daicos led the possession tally when the sides faced off in round 4, gathering 38, while Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury and Neale each had 31 in their clash last month.

The favourites for most disposals are: Nick Daicos ($2.50), Neale ($3.75), Mitchell, Dunkley (both $6.50) and Josh Daicos ($7.50).

MUST-SEE info before picking your first goalkicker in the #AFLGF from @hoyney35 and @davidking34.

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— SuperFooty (AFL) (@superfooty) September 29, 2023

Daniher, Mihocek (both $5.50), Elliott, Charlie Cameron ($6 each) and Hipwood ($10) – the five leading goalkickers this season – are the shortest odds to finish with the most majors.

Charlie Cameron (six and four) shapes as the one to watch after topping the tally in the clubs’ previous two meetings.

Originally published as AFL Grand Final 2023 Collingwood v Brisbane: Best first goal scorer and most disposal picks and analysis