AFL Finals: Mick McGuane analyses the Port Adelaide vs. GWS semi-final
The pressure is on at Port to avoid a straight-sets finals exit, but the Power have responded to pressure all year. Mick McGuane analyses how GWS or the Power book a date with the Pies.
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The pressure is on Port Adelaide to avoid a straight-sets finals exit against a Greater Western Sydney side that is the in-form team of the competition this weekend.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken an in-depth look at both sides to try and find a winner.
PORT ADELAIDE
STRENGTHS
The Power have shown strong belief in their ability to respond under coach Ken Hinkley this year.
Leading into a round 22 match against Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide had lost four consecutive games.
However, Hinkley’s side came out and belted the Giants by 51 points at Adelaide Oval that day.
That win came on the back of a plan to control ball movement through kick-mark, while also being highly efficient when going inside-50.
The Power took 16 marks inside-50 in that match and generated 34 shots on goal from their 65 entries.
Port Adelaide has been challenged at various stages this season but is a highly dangerous team when it’s aggressive at the contest, controls the footy and is efficient going inside-50.
WEAKNESSES
It is fair to say that Port Adelaide has not been ruthless enough in defence at times this season.
So, can they last the journey in a high-pressure semi-final against the Giants?
The Power defenders – including Aliir Aliir, Miles Bergman, Dan Houston and Ryan Burton – tend to roll off and give their opponents a lot of leg-rope in search of intercept opportunities.
They all like to back their judgement in the air, but they don’t always get their decisions right when they roll off their respective opponents to win the ball back.
They won’t want to give Toby Greene, Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels too much time at ground level with space to work their craft inside-50 this week, or they will be punished on the scoreboard.
OPPORTUNITIES
It will be all about taking chances for the Power in this semi-final.
Especially in finals, goalkicking is something that must stand up when the opportunities present – but it deserted Port Adelaide in its qualifying final against Brisbane last week.
Todd Marshall wasn’t alone, but he missed two chances from close range against the Lions and the Power logged 25 shots on goal for a return of 11.9 (75).
When Port Adelaide beat GWS in round 22, it recorded its second-highest score of the season with an accurate 21.10 (136).
That scoreline stemmed from Port’s ability to create front-half intercepts and go back in and find the middle of the big sticks.
Since round 13, the Giants have ranked No. 2 in the competition for scores against and No. 1 for opposition scores per inside 50.
Against such a strong defence and in a final, taking those chances in front of goal will be crucial.
Conversion helps win games of footy.
THREATS
The Giants’ ability to score from stoppages will challenge Port Adelaide.
Against St Kilda in its elimination final, GWS scored 54 of its 101 points from stoppages.
At the same time, the Power midfielders were embarrassed at times by how easily they allowed their Brisbane counterparts to break away from stoppage and spread in their qualifying final.
The Lions kicked an accurate 13.3 (81) from stoppages for the game – almost two-thirds of their total score.
Brisbane’s midfielders manipulated the space, got what they wanted, worked harder for longer and spread from congestion with great intent. Port Adelaide must not allow that to happen again this week.
How the Power defend after they lose a stoppage this week will be very important to the result.
GWS
STRENGTHS
The Giants are the form team of the competition at the moment and can hurt their opposition in multiple ways.
You could argue that their game is in the best shape of any of the six sides who remain in the finals race.
GWS is a high pressure team that creates turnovers and has the capacity to score from them through dynamic ball movement and an efficient forward line.
While their turnover game has been their weapon in the second half of the season, the Giants also showed in their elimination final against St Kilda that they can score heavily from stoppages.
Defensively they are a rock-solid side, led by the likes of Sam Taylor, Harry Himmelberg and Jack Buckley down back but don’t underestimate the pressure that comes from Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford further afield.
WEAKNESSES
Given the Giants rely heavily on their pressure and turnover game, they can be troubled by teams who are able to possess the ball with elite kicking skills.
In round 22, Port Adelaide played keepings off with a kick-mark game and recorded 94 uncontested marks against GWS.
That helped to take away the Giants’ pressure and ensured it was instead a controlled, tempo game which was played on Port’s terms.
The Power were able to generate highly-efficient entries going inside 50 from their ball use, which troubled the GWS defence.
If Port Adelaide gets anywhere near 100 uncontested marks again this week, the Giants will be in trouble.
OPPORTUNITIES
There’s a prime opportunity for GWS to expose Port Adelaide’s leaky and unstable defence this week.
Since round 18, the Power have ranked 15th in the competition for points against and 17th for opposition scores per inside-50.
Port Adelaide’s midfielders were meek in defending stoppage loss last week – which only put more pressure on their defenders – and GWS will look to that to try and find an advantage on this front.
If GWS can go back-to-front with speed through in-form rebounding defenders Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash, it could also throw up some major challenges.
The Giants rank fourth in the competition since round 18 for points from defensive half, while the Power rank 16th for defending opposition points from defensive half.
THREATS
Port Adelaide’s tall forward line will be a worry.
Charlie Dixon’s return makes for a potent forward line for the Power, alongside Todd Marshall and Ollie Lord
The Giants have three key defenders in Sam Taylor, Harry Himmelberg and Jack Buckley, and the message from Hinkley to Dixon will be to stay deep and keep Taylor away from intercepting the ball higher up the ground.
Dixon is Port’s emotional barometer, not only for his teammates but for the Power faithful as well.
Taylor must control Dixon early and take away the positive energy he provides the team.
MAGNET BOARD
Hinkley has three viable options to ponder with his midfield.
Ollie Wines has been off the radar a little from a consistency and output perspective, but Port Adelaide should throw him a challenge to go head-to-head with Tom Green this week.
I like Wines more inside the contest than outside and it would be a perfect match up – big body on big body.
Like Marcus Winghager did for St Kilda last week, Willem Drew can go to Josh Kelly, if needed, and take away his creativity through the midfield.
Or does the Power coach just take on the Giants midfield and go head to head and back in his midfield group to respond.
There is a fair argument to suggest, even though Drew did a terrific job against Lachie Neale last week, the Port’s midfield were dictated to and got towed around because of that one v one match up.
Drop the tags, back them in and let them play is what I’d be doing.
Ryan Burton is likely to get what will be a critical match-up with Toby Greene and can’t allow himself to be badly beaten.
Darcy Byrne-Jones has to play in the backline this week and be given the job to play on the Giants’ live wire small forwards Brent Daniels.
Sam Taylor has to go to Charlie Dixon as he is the Power’s most dangerous, deepest marking forward, while Jack Buckley goes to Todd Marshall and Harry Himmelberg plays on Ollie Lord.
I’d look to play Connor Rozee 50/60 per cent as a forward in this game and if that eventuates Lachie Ash must be given the responsibility to quell his influence. Rozee has the capabilities to kick multiple goals if not kept in check
MICK’S TIP – Port Adelaide by 14 points
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