AFL Draft 2024: How the final home-and-away round can drastically alter national draft standings

Collingwood is facing a draft wipe-out. The Suns are sweating on the result of GWS v Bulldogs. Richmond could still lose pick 1. JON RALPH unpacks how round 24 could alter the draft.

In Round 24 last year, North Melbourne shocked the football establishment with a win over Gold Coast and the ramifications of that ladder shake-up are still being felt today.

The Roos famously gave up pick 1 – and the rights to Harley Reid.

But Gold Coast’s slip from 12th to 14th on the ladder saw them pick up the No.5 draft selection and turn it into six first-round picks through inspired trading.

This year as Round 24 approaches, there is no Reid-type player.

But the No.1 pick is still live for both the Tigers and North Melbourne. And there is so much still up for grabs for clubs that traded 2024 draft selections last year.

So which clubs are desperately hoping their opponents fail leading into round 24 and which clubs will benefit from shock results?

1. PIES DOING DOCKERS, HAWKS A FAVOUR

Collingwood is putting its veterans out to pasture for the Friday night clash against Melbourne. But a club that so craftily secured Scott Pendlebury as its second top five pick in 2005 when it gained a priority pick after a spate of late-season surgeries is this time benefiting other clubs.

Fremantle has the Pies first-rounder (the Lachie Schultz trade) and Hawthorn has Collingwood’s second-rounder (the Jack Ginnivan trade).

A win and a Freo loss would have put that selection at pick 10.

Lachie Schultz celebrates a goal against Brisbane. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

If Melbourne beats the Pies on Friday night and Essendon upsets Brisbane, Collingwood’s selection goes from the current No.9 pick to the No.7 overall pick.

That potential No.7 selection could be crucial for Fremantle in its dealings with Richmond on Shai Bolton.

Because even if it shuffles back a couple of spots through a father-son bid on Brisbane’s Levi Ashcroft and an early bid on Gold Coast’s Leo Lombard, it will still fall in the top 10.

Hawthorn can make finals and even conjure a deep run and having swapped second-rounders with the Pies, they could effectively get Jack Ginnivan for free given the trade was set up on the likelihood Collingwood would finish top four and the Hawks bottom 10.

2. TIGERS AT RISK OF FUMBLING TOP PICK

Richmond can still lose the No.1 overall pick

The Tigers are 2.7 percentage points and four premiership points behind North Melbourne.

But can you see them beating Gold Coast for the first time in five attempts even if the Roos lose to Hawthorn?

Jagga Smith is in contention for pick 1. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.

If that did happen – and the Roos copped a belting last week against the Dogs so don’t count on them to win – then the Tigers lose flexibility over which of young mids Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith or Harvey Langford they get to secure.

Everyone says it’s an even draft, but make no mistake, in 24 months time we will be judging the 2024 draft and the Tigers will want to have nailed the No.1 pick.

The No.1 pick also gives Richmond the first crack at the rookie draft and pre-season draft.

3. SUNS CHEERING FOR FELLOW EXPANSION CLUB

Gold Coast will be desperately hoping the Dogs get stage fright against GWS and fall from finals contention.

They have the Dogs’ first-round pick, which currently sits at pick 13 on ladder order.

It will blow out to the late teens with father son and NGA picks in a spot where the likes of Essendon-aligned Isaac Kako could be bid on.

But if the Dogs miss finals it becomes pick 10 and is a powerful pick to offer to the likes of Richmond on Dan Rioli.

It would give the Suns picks 5, 10 and 20, even before they do a deal with Adelaide on Jack Lukosius.

Daniel Rioli‘s fate could hinge on the result of the Giants and Dogs’ clash in Ballarat. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

4. DOCKERS RUING POWER’S SURGE

Fremantle is a little stiff.

Six weeks ago the Port Adelaide first-rounder in their keeping was at pick 10. Now with the Power second on the ladder it’s at pick 17 and with compo picks, NGA and father-son bids it might end up closer to 30.

It’s still handy in any trade dealings but it’s massively diluted as a trade commodity if they have a dash at someone like Sydney’s Chad Warner this year.

The rumblings about West Coast having a dash at Warner this year won’t die, either.

5. SAINTS FACING BATTLE OF THEIR OWN

If Gold Coast beats Richmond and St Kilda loses to Carlton, the Saints will finish with pick 5.

It will secure the Saints their best draft pick since Max King (pick 4, 2018) and also affect a potential compensation pick for Josh Battle.

Rival clubs still believe Battle will head to Hawthorn – which is brimming with confidence about its position.

St Kilda hoped a month back Battle would stay but is less confident now, and is also far from optimistic he would harness Ross Lyon a first-round compensation pick.

Josh Battle’s future is still up in the air. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

That deal would likely need to be in as much as $950,000 a season to trigger a selection immediately after their first-round pick.

St Kilda is aware it might instead fall at the end of the first round.

Losing Josh Battle for pick 20 – which will eventually drift back to about pick 30 – is not great business.

But given he’s an unrestricted free agent they can only offer a significant deal and hope Hawthorn’s offer eclipses it, and gives them a chance at first-round compo.

6. HAWKS’ DAYLIGHT ROBBERY NEARLY COMPLETE

Collingwood’s first selection in this draft is currently at pick 32, given it holds Hawthorn’s second-round pick after the Jack Ginnivan trade.

Consider the possible bids to come on players before then – Levi Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako, Sam Marshall, maybe Ben Camporeale, maybe FA compensation for Battle.

If the Hawks make a deep finals run, a Collingwood side which desperately needs to secure elite young talent might be making its first bid at pick 40.

It’s why you could see them trading next year’s first-rounder into this draft, given the desperation to get into a quality draft with the key position players the Pies need.

Originally published as AFL Draft 2024: How the final home-and-away round can drastically alter national draft standings