AFL Draft 2021: Jay Clark looks at how the top 20 picks could look

Richmond would love a guaranteed talent in the mould of midfielder Ben Hobbs at next month’s draft, but might have to settle for a riskier prospect. Jay Clark predicts the top 20.

The teens are an intriguing spot in this year’s AFL Draft.

From the biggest boom-or-bust prospects of this year’s pool, to the top-end talent from SA and WA and the potential top-10 slider, clubs will see it differently.

After predicting how the first 10 picks could fall last week, Jay Clark has been working the phones to round out his early phantom draft with a look at picks 11-20.

1. North Melbourne: Jason Horne-Francis (South Adelaide)

184cm midfielder-forward

The player: The buzz around Jason Horne-Francis has gone through the roof over the past fortnight after North Melbourne knocked back a truckload of top picks from Adelaide and Richmond for rights to the goal kicking playmaker. Likened to Sydney Swans’ Isaac Heeney, the exciting blonde turned on a blinder in the SANFL preliminary final snagging three goals from 24 disposals and 11 clearances. Recruiters already knew he was the top talent, but this was an astonishing performance on the eve of the draft that will surely see the competitive midfield-forward make an immediate impact for the Kangas next season. Wins his own footy in the air and on ground level and is polished and impactful with his ball use. Will put bums on seats.
The pick: Adelaide offered three first-round selections for the Roos’ No. 1 pick and will keep knocking on that door for as long as the South Australian Horne-Francis is wearing football boots. Watch North Melbourne attempt to lock in Horne-Francis with a very early contract extension.

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Jason Horne-Francis enjoying his time at the draft combine. Picture: Russell Millard

2. Collingwood: Nick Daicos (Oakleigh Chargers)

183cm midfielder

Matching GWS’ father-son bid

The player: Nick Daicos would have played a considerable number of games for the Magpies this year if he was already on their senior list. The big-time ballwinner zips through congestion and has regularly shown he has elite vision in tight spaces, finding tough targets by hand and foot. Played some exceptional football in the NAB League this year and could have a Sam-Walsh style impact in his first few seasons, according to the talent gurus. Son of Collingwood great Peter Daicos and the younger brother of Josh. Averaged 36 touches and two goals a game in the NAB League. Will be the face of the Collingwood list rebuild.
The pick: This hurts. Collingwood originally had this pick but traded it to GWS last year, meaning the Magpies could have taken Daicos plus another top-three talent if they held it. Ouch. Instead, GWS or any club the Giants trade this pick to will surely bid on Daicos here, making the Pies pay full tote odds for one player.

3. Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (Oakleigh Chargers)

204cm key forward-ruck

Matching GWS’ father-son bid

The player: The Bulldogs are truly blessed to have access to this skilful and versatile big man, adding to the incredible riches already down the club’s spine. Darcy has excelled playing at centre half forward, kicking six goals in a Vic Metro trial game, and in defence where he set tongues wagging with his aerial work and rebounding earlier in the year. There hasn’t been as much hype around Darcy as there is around Horne-Francis and Daicos, but as one top scout said, the big man is equally special. Can kick on both sides of his body and is smooth around the ground.
The pick: The Dogs are certain to match a bid for Darcy at this spot and will have a wealth of talented tall options over the next decade, if they can all be kept at the club, with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Aaron Naughton, Tim English and Darcy. Son of Bulldogs’ great and club director Luke Darcy.

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Sam Darcy will bless the Bulldogs with another incredible father-son pick for the second year in a row. Picture: Michael Klein

4. GWS: Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons)

189cm midfielder

The player: This left-footed wingman has significant upside and has risen up recruiters’ draft boards all season long. The speedster is damaging on the outside in a way that has drawn comparisons to Hugh McCluggage, but it is his size, creativeness, and potential growth as a tall inside midfielder that has clubs wondering whether he can blossom like Marcus Bontempelli. That is why a club can hit the jackpot with this pick. Callaghan takes on the opposition with his weaving run and carry and is a nice marking option at his height. Has lots of tricks by hand and is a penetrating kick.
The pick: This is where the big moves can start. GWS owns this pick and would happily take Callaghan, but the reality is the club already has loads of gun midfield talent and would prefer a tall such as Mac Andrew or Josh Gibcus. That is why the Giants are considering trading several spots down the order if they can get something else in a deal, such as an early future pick. A swap with Hawthorn makes sense as it would give the Hawks a blue-chip midfielder such as Callaghan (which they need) and allows the Giants to nab a big man. But Richmond, Gold Coast and Adelaide are all in the same conversation.

5. Gold Coast: Josh Gibcus (Greater Western Victoria Rebels)

195cm key defender

The player: Springy defender is an intercept marking specialist. Gibcus has a canny knack of floating in from the side and reaching above the rest of the pack as he reels in his grabs. He was impressive in a recent series of club interviews and is a top-six lock for some recruiters. Like Alex Rance, Gibcus is handy linking up on the rebound and will look to develop that side of his game. Given the emphasis on scoring on the turnover in the modern game, Gibcus’s marking power makes him a standout prospect.
The pick: Gold Coast is loaded with midfielders and has been found wanting in the key position department, especially in the back end. Gibcus would help form an excellent twin tower combination with Ben King at the opposite end as part of sound long-term play. Suns could try to shuffle this pick up or down the order depending on where the Suns think Gibcus will be taken, if the club is prepared to be patient with him. Stuart Dew may prefer a midfielder such as Ben Hobbs to get the instant impact.

6. Adelaide: Ben Hobbs (Greater Victorian Western Rebels)

183cm midfielder

The player: Already been dubbed a future-captain in the making, Hobbs is certain to thrive at AFL level as a hard-as-nails inside midfielder. The strong-bodied onballer stepped up impressively this season after an early ankle injury and will be a safe bet at the pointy end of the draft. The competitive beast won admirers for his excellent contested ball work, all-round defensive application and team-first attitude. Vic Country captain shines in the clinches and will be a key pillar in an AFL onball unit in a similar manner to Collingwood’s Taylor Adams.
The pick: Adelaide has been strongly linked to Josh Rachele as an exciting and creative small forward and could yet trade up or down the order. But it would be hard to pass up Hobbs here as a long-term Rory Sloane replacement.

Ben Hobbs could have the qualities to be a future captain of the Adelaide Football Club Picture: Michael Klein

7. Hawthorn: Josh Ward (Northern Knights)

181cm midfielder

The player: Reliable onballer has earned comparisons to Essendon star Zach Merrett for his polish and work rate in the middle. Might not be as flashy as others but Ward is a consistent performer who is clean around the stoppages and hits targets. Was named captain of the NAB league team of the year averaging 25 disposals a game. May not have the size as some of the other top draft prospects but he uses his huge tank and determination to work hard to get to the next contest. Scouts say coaches will love knowing that they can count on him on game day. Averaged 30 disposals and six clearances a game in the NAB League. He would be right up Sam Mitchell’s alley.
The pick: This would be a dream get for the Hawks at this pick as Ward could become the face of the next generation Hawthorn midfield alongside Will Day. Sam Mitchell would rate Ward’s foot skills, work ethic and ability to connect through the middle of the ground. His great grandfather, Alex Lee, played 31 games for the Hawks between 1933-35.

8. Fremantle: Jye Amiss (East Perth)

195cm key forward

The player: The smart key forward is a snug fit for the Dockers as they can lock-in a local talent to become a spearhead for the next decade. Amiss has impressed in the WAFL Colts bagging 53 goals and is the best key forward prospect in the country. He has a strong-lead up game and works hard to kick goals in different ways, either second-chance opportunities at ground level, pressuring the opposition or linking up. Even better, he is an accurate kick for goal from set shot and general play. Has nice hands.
The pick: The Dockers need another developing key forward and it will be hard to pass up on the local star goal kicker. Richmond has the next pick and could also snap him up after losing Mabior Chol and Callum Coleman-Jones, so if the Dockers really want they may have to pounce here.

Can the Dockers land WA product Jye Amiss to have their future spearhead. Picture: Getty Images

9. Richmond: Josh Rachele (Murray Bushrangers)

180cm forward-midfielder

The player: Rachele this low in the top-10 would be an excellent pick-up for the Tigers if he is still available. The crafty goal kicker has an exciting mix of speed and talent in the forward half and could develop into an absolute match winner at AFL level as his fitness builds. He can blow past defenders, create play out of nowhere and hit the scoreboard and there is significant upside in his midfield prospects. Lethal in the air and at ground level, and will be a fan favourite.
The pick: The Tigers would be keen to get their hands on Hobbs as a Trent Cotchin replacement, but there is a lot to like about Rachele if he slides this far. Easy to see the Tigers snapping him up given the way they have used small forwards like him in the past. And could impact early.

10. Fremantle: Mac Andrew (Dandenong Stingrays)

200cm ruck-key forward

The player: One of the buzz players of this year’s draft has continued to rocket up draft orders across the season. At 200cm the exciting ruck-forward has Nic Naitanui-like qualities the way he can reach above those around him to either mark the ball or tap down to his teammates. And in-play he has a capacity to have a big impact with his tackling and follow-up and ground level. The spring-heeled Andrew is also developing his game in the forward half and according to the talent gurus can be anything in a few years.
The pick: Is this Fremantle’s Nic Natanui moment? Fremantle has two choices inside the top-10 which gives them flexibility to take the key forward they need (Amiss) and if not a midfield replacement for Adam Cerra, then the super athletic Andrew. Greater Western Sydney could take him as high as pick two, they rate Andrew so highly. He is tied to Melbourne’s next generation academy but there is no chance he slides past pick 20 which is what needs to happen to land at the Demons. Tall midfielder Neil Erasmus also in the mix.

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Neil Erasmus made the move into the midfield at Subiaco this year. Picture: Michael Klein

11. St Kilda: Neil Erasmus (Subiaco)

188cm midfielder

The player: If this tall midfielder from Subiaco slips past Fremantle’s two picks, then the Saints won’t be able to call out his name quick enough. There is some Nat Fyfe in the way he can take a mark in the forward half and have a big impact through the middle with his size and clean hands. Initially shone as a forward but became a big-time ballwinner in the midfield this year. Reliable and hardworking.

The pick: Could easily see the Dockers snaring Erasmus as the local star midfield talent and Adam Cerra replacement. But he would tick all the boxes for the Saints who need some quality and size in a middle-of-the-road engine room. St Kilda has a lot riding on this year’s draft and Erasmus would be a dream addition for a club which is in the midst of a reset after loading up on mature-age talent in recent trade periods.

12. West Coast: Matthew Johnson (Subiaco)

192cm midfielder

The player: Another tall midfielder who has drawn comparisons to Collingwood champion Scott Pendlebury for his silkiness, evasiveness and class disposal. He is one of those players who seems to have time with the ball in hand and finds room in tight spaces. Johnson’s sidestep and fend-off are two of the weapons in a considerable trick bag. But while there is enormous upside, there has also been questions about consistency and intensity. Recruiters have challenged him on his tackling but he had nine of them in the curtain-raiser game on Grand Final day to answer the call.

The pick: Hard to know whether West Coast is a top-four or bottom-four team in 2022, given their form over the past two years. But the club knew in the trade period it had to keep its picks for this year’s draft to reinvest in some top young talent to help replenish an ageing squad. Ex-Blue Sam Petrevski-Seton, a former pick six, was basically a free hit in exchange for pick 52. Johnson is a high-end midfield talent who was best-on in the Grand Final day curtain-raiser, but not everyone is completely sold. Intriguing pick.

Glenelg young gun Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. Picture: Cory Sutton/SANFL

13. Essendon: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Glenelg)

187cm midfielder

The player: A weapon on the wing or pushing deeper forward, Wanganeen-Milera breaks the lines with his run and carry and is elite by foot. Simply, forwards’ eyes light up when the nephew of Essendon and Port Adelaide great Gavin Wanganeen is delivering the ball their way. It is why Wanganeen Milera is one of the most damaging outside midfielders available and could help finish off a midfield which already has some grunt power.

The pick: Essendon is in the market to go up the order in this year’s draft and has spoken with clubs about potential swap deals. They could be open to moving on a future second-round selection to help march up the order next month. The Bombers have an exciting young list and while Bobby Hill unsuccessfully tried to make his way to Tullamarine, they are clearly in the market for a speedy forward. Irving Mosquito also departed. Wanganeen-Milera is more of a midfielder but would be an exciting addition nonetheless.

14. Port Adelaide: Arlo Draper (South Adelaide)

185cm midfielder/forward

The player: Arlo Draper is a classy and versatile playmaker who can add to the riches of young talent at the Power. Port’s recruiters deserve recognition for helping keep the club’s premiership window open with some recent hits and Draper is a classy ball user who can do some special things in the forward half, hitting difficult targets or impacting inside 50m. He’s a confident mark overhead which means he can play in different spots. The South Australian hurt his shoulder late in the year but it won’t be an ongoing concern.

The pick: The Power are in a decent position here as they look closely at several local talents including Wanganeen-Milera, Draper and Matthew Roberts. Port looks well-stocked for key forward targets with Mitch Georgiades, Todd Marshall and now Jeremy Finalyson, so there’s scope to target a versatile midfield type.

Will the Giants pounce on Tyler Sonsie? Picture: Michael Klein

15. GWS: Tyler Sonsie (Eastern Ranges)

181cm midfielder

The player: Speedy midfielder likes to blow past his opponents and hit the scoreboard. He is classy on both sides of his body, clean by hand and can zip through bunches of players in the same manner as his one of his idols, Richmond premiership hero Trent Cotchin. He is likely to be a bigger threat on the outside earlier in his career and certainly has the versatility to be a dangerous player in the forward half. Was impressive for Box Hill in the VFL with 24 disposals and two goals. Has some elite traits with the ball.

The pick: GWS is in a strong position to manipulate the draft order to their advantage with picks two and this one. They would love ruckman Mac Andrew to fall this far and would snap him up here in a heartbeat if he happened to slide. With Bobby Hill potentially set to request a trade in 12 months’ time, Sonsie would be another nice addition if they’ve already taken Andrew or Finn Callaghan.

16. Brisbane: Jacob Van Rooyen (Claremont)

194cm key defender/forward

The player: The versatile key position prospect has been likened to Essendon’s Michael Hurley for his ability to impact at both ends. Started in defence and kicked the matchwinning goal in the dying seconds for Western Australia against South Australia. In a draft which features a lot of midfield types, Van Rooyen is one of the top talls available. Overcame a bout of glandular fever but already has a strong frame and can work his opponents over.

The pick: The Lions could add to their key position stocks here and Van Rooyen has a future in the AFL at both ends. The Lions’ recruiters have done a fine job in recent years snaring, among others, Zac Bailey at pick 15 in 2017, and will like their options with two picks inside 20. Expect one of them to target a tall.

17. Richmond: Josh Goater (Calder Cannons)

190cm midfielder/defender

The player: Quick and powerful midfielder has considerable x-factor and will be one of the most interesting selections of the draft. At 190cm, the big-bodied midfielder can explode out of the stoppage and use his leap to advantage anywhere around the ground. While he is still considered a raw prospect, recruiters believe he could pop up inside the first 10 picks considering the explosiveness and potential growth in his game. Could use him across half back for his burst and be a game breaker across wing or half forward.

The pick: This is Richmond’s strongest draft hand in a decade and if the Tigers nail the picks, it can really help recharge the Tigers’ premiership prospects after a golden run. With multiple picks, they can take some risks and scouts think Goater is one of the biggest boom or bust prospects of this year’s pool. If they nabbed Rachelle and Goater with their first two picks, Tigers fans should get excited.

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Josh Sinn in full flight during the under-19 challenge game. Picture: Michael Klein

18. Sydney: Josh Sinn (Sandringham)

186cm defender-midfielder

The player: Speedy half back is renowned for having one of the most deadly left-foot kicks in this year’s crop. His ability to turn defence into attack on the burst makes him one of the most eye-catching players in the first round, but the Sandringham product suffered a hamstring injury and has slid down clubs’ draft boards a little this year. Takes the game on in an aggressive manner and will be a huge asset with his flair on the counter-attack.

The pick: Sydney would ideally love a top key position prospect to help bolster the club’s defensive stocks but maybe they have something up their sleeves in the free agency market. Logan McDonald is an exciting key forward and Tom McCartin has blossomed into an All-Australian contender but depth in this area is a query. With Jordan Dawson gone, Sinn has some appeal here.

19. Melbourne: Matthew Roberts (South Adelaide)

183cm midfielder/forward

The player: This ready-to-go midfielder has the kind of competitive edge the Demons built their premiership on. The hardworking left-footer with a penetrating kick and strong overhead mark has the versatility to play midfield-forward and looked comfortable this year playing SANFL seniors for South Adelaide. Looks like he could become a leader for his side and can be counted on whether he is winning a hard ball or on the end of a kick to the forward line.

The pick: The Demons’ midfield is already stacked so the club could go any way it wants to at this pick, but the reliable Roberts would be hard to pass up at this mark. The Demons have a well-balanced squad and after shooting the lights out with Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett and Bayley Fritsch, among many others, Roberts might just be the best talent available here. Jason Taylor has arguably the best recruiting record in the game and, after signing a four-year contract extension with the Demons, the club will be thrilled he remains in charge of the draft analysis.

20. Brisbane: Campbell Chesser (Sandringham Dragons)

186cm defender/midfielder

The player: Former track star has a big motor and uses it to break the lines at either half back or on a the wing. The classy ball user is a link-up specialist and was All-Australian at under-16 level before a knee issue caused him some headaches at Sandringham. Can zigzag around his opponents if given licence to run and has impressed in club interviews. Briefly considered a future in athletics.

The pick: The Lions could do with an extra dose of pace and that is what Chesser would bring. There is a question mark over some of the Victorian prospects given how interrupted the past two seasons have been with COVID-19 restrictions but Chesser has been on recruiters’ radars for years. Impressive individual.

Originally published as AFL Draft 2021: Jay Clark looks at how the top 20 picks could look