AFL 2025: Mick McGuane’s verdict on eight big 50-50 calls

Would you rather be Essendon or Richmond for the next five years? Would you rather have Zak Butters or Harley Reid for the rest of their careers? Mick McGuane has his say on eight 50-50 calls.

Which team would you rather coach and which player would you rather have in your team?

We asked AFL analyst Mick McGuane to get out his crystal ball and pick a side on eight big 50-50 calls — each with some different context.

Here are the results.

WHO WOULD YOU RATHER BE?

Essendon. Picture: Getty Images

Richmond. Picture: Getty Images

ESSENDON OR RICHMOND?

Context: For the next five years

I like the direction the Tigers are headed as they rejuvenate their list, but I’ve also got some concerns about their top-heavy age profile.

Toby Nankervis, Tom Lynch, Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad and Kamdyn McIntosh are all still playing key roles despite being the other side of 30, while Jayden Short is 29.

Nankervis turns 31 in August and I am worried about who takes over the No. 1 ruck mantle from him.

Samson Ryan has featured in only nine senior games over the past two years and at 24 years old hasn’t developed into the player Richmond might have hoped for.

There will also be a big hole in the forward line when Lynch finishes up, given young key forwards Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims are going to take time to hit their straps.

I love the way young players Seth Campbell and Tom Brown go about their footy, and I’ve always rated Josh Gibcus highly as he works his way back from an ACL.

If Gibcus can return to fitness and live up to his potential, he can form a strong defensive partnership with Noah Balta across the next five years.

It is a similar conversation for the Essendon, who have finally got fellow key defender Zach Reid fit and are now reaping the rewards.

Reid has been given significant jobs this year but has helped shore up the Bombers’ defence alongside Ben McKay.

Essendon also has issues with their ruck stocks, which will be heightened if Sam Draper departs as a free agent at the end of the year.

I believe keeping Draper (26) and Bryan (23) is critical for the long-term.

The Bombers only have two players over 30 on their list, with more players either in or entering their prime over the next five years.

Zach Reid mark vs Collingwood

Zach Merrett is a top-five player in the competition right now and looks a young 29, while Jye Caldwell is an emerging leader and potentially a captain in waiting.

There is clear upside to come with young players like Nate Caddy, Isaac Kako and Archie Roberts, while the Bombers will land a father-son beauty in 2027 with Koby Bewick.

I’ve watched him since he was young and he’s an AFL player in waiting with great skills, decision making and work ethic.

Both Essendon and Richmond also hold two first-round draft picks this year, so there is more talent on the way.

It is a lineball call, but I’m taking the Bombers.

Mick’s Pick: Essendon

Brisbane. Picture: Getty Images

Collingwood. Picture: Getty Images

BRISBANE LIONS OR COLLINGWOOD?

Context: For the 2025 season

The Lions sit in top spot on the ladder, but they are in the best of form at the moment.

Brisbane’s only loss so far came against Collingwood by 52 points in round 6, where the Magpies took away their opponent’s renowned strengths around contest, clearance and territory.

The 17th-placed North Melbourne also took away those same strengths in a highly disappointing draw for Chris Fagan’s side in Hobart last weekend.

Despite sitting No. 1 on the ladder, the Lions don’t rank among the top-four sides in the competition for many key metrics.

They rank sixth in points for and seventh for points against.

Fagan’s side has had more clearances than any other team in the competition but ranks sixth for scoring from those clearance wins and also sit sixth for defending opposition points from stoppages.

Their turnover game is slightly worse, ranking seventh for both scores from turnovers and scores against from turnovers.

To put that all simply, the Lions are a bit leaky in defence and aren’t punishing sides with ball in hand like they were last year.

Of course, it is only May and there is a long way to go.

However, it is hard to pick similar holes in Collingwood’s profile thus far.

The system is holding true regardless of the personnel on the park for Craig McRae, as we witnessed against Fremantle last week.

Nick Daicos kicks a third-term goal

Collingwood is showing exceptional balance between offence and defence in its game, ranking No. 3 for scoring from turnovers and No. 1 for defending opposition scores from turnovers.

That balance in their system is what is separating the Magpies from the rest of the competition.

If Collingwood was to lose Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe, Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard, it would have a problem.

But if these two teams remain relatively healthy, I think the Magpies can master the Lions — including if they are to meet at the MCG on the last Saturday in September.

Mick’s Pick: Collingwood

Gold Coast. Picture: Getty Images

GWS. Picture: Getty Images

GOLD COAST OR GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY?

Context: For the next five years

Since the inception of both of these clubs a year apart, the Giants have clearly had the better resume to date.

But now it is the Suns’ time to shine.

The way I see it, GWS has an ageing list profile while Gold Coast is stacked with exciting youth.

At the Giants, captain Toby Greene turns 32 later this year, Lachie Whitfield and Josh Kelly are both 30 and Callan Ward won’t be in the conversation beyond this year.

Jesse Hogan is playing the best footy of his life at age 30, but is that sustainable for more than the next couple of years?

In saying that, GWS aren’t about to fall off a cliff, given they have locked away plenty of younger stars including Tom Green, Finn Callaghan, Lachie Ash, Sam Taylor, Connor Idun and Brent Daniels.

Key defender Harry Himmelberg has just turned 29, while 2022 No. 1 draft pick and key forward Aaron Cadman continues to get games under his belt.

For the Suns, their biggest strength is around the ball.

They must get the signature of Matt Rowell and have him continue to work with Noah Andrerson and Touk Miller for years to come.

As good as Jarrod Witts has been, it is time to introduce a younger player who can take the reigns in that No. 1 ruck role.

I’d like to see Gold Coast get more games into Ned Moyle and Ethan Read, with Witts set to turn 33 later this year.

The recruitment of halfbacks Daniel Rioli and John Noble — who are both 28 — was a masterstroke and that rebounding pair have plenty of footy left in them.

The Suns have invested heavily in key defender Mac Andrew, who is still just 21, and have a 24-year-old key forward in Ben King who is leading the Coleman Medal race but still has further growth to come in his game as he becomes bigger and stronger.

Then there’s the Suns Academy, which continues to churn out talent.

In 2023, the Academy delivered Jed Walter, Read, Jake Rogers and one of my favourites, Will Graham.

This year, Zeke Uwland, Beau Addinsall and Dylan Patterson all shape as first-round picks.

Damien Hardwick has plenty to work with and their growth is sustainable.

Mick’s Pick: Gold Coast

Adelaide. Picture: Getty Images

Sydney. Picture: Phil Hillyard

ADELAIDE OR SYDNEY?

Context: For the next five years

Crows recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie and list boss Justin Reid deserve a big tick.

I think they’ve set up Adelaide beautifully, not just for the now but also well into the future.

The Crows copped it for a poor 2024, but sometimes a few key injuries can make all the difference.

What a difference a fit Riley Thilthorpe and Izak Rankine have made to the side this year.

As I wrote in pre-season, Thilthorpe is a Coleman Medal winner in waiting and there’s not many power forwards that can run as hard as he can.

Rankine — who only played five games after round 10 last year due to injury and suspension — is absolute class.

I also loved the recruits the Crows added over the off-season in Alex Neal-Bullen (29), James Peatling (24) and Isaac Cumming (26).

The trio have brought maturity to a group that is evolving in front of our eyes.

Veteran Rory Laird has been spat out of the midfield, with Rankine and the improving Jake Soligo spending more time onball.

Captain Jordan Dawson is a star — and is still only 28 years old.

The Crows’ defence is rock-solid, but it is their forward line which is their point of difference.

Taylor Walker keeps spiking at age 35, but won’t be around for much longer.

The good news is that Daniel Curtin looks capable of filling the Walker role long-term, as a talented hybrid forward who I think we will be talking about a lot more in two or three years’ time.

The Crows’ strength in the forward half is contrasted by Sydney’s struggles.

Izak Rankine steals the show in the final quarter

I’m not sure Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean can get it done as the key targets in attack. Logan McDonald’s injury is also a big concern.

The Swans have always had an iconic key forward — think Tony Lockett, Barry Hall and Lance Franklin — and need to go out and get another one if they are to challenge for a premiership over the next five years.

Adelaide might come up a little bit short this year, but I’m confident we’re going to see a serious team next year and beyond.

Mick’s Pick: Adelaide

WHO WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE?

Adam Cerra. Picture: Michael Klein

Matthew Kennedy. Picture: Michael Klein

ADAM CERRA OR MATTHEW KENNEDY?

Context: For the 2025 season

Recruiters have a tendency to focus on what players can’t do, as opposed to what they can do.

The knock on Matthew Kennedy has always been his lack of speed, but should the focus have instead been on his willingness to compete?

Where those at Carlton might have seen the negative, the Bulldogs saw the positive and Kennedy has got to work to invigorate himself in a new environment.

He ranks second at the Bulldogs for total clearances this year — behind only Tom Liberatore who is one of the best extractors of the footy at stoppages I have ever seen.

Across the past eight weeks, Kennedy ranks No. 7 for clearances in the competition.

Talk about a moneyball recruit.

His ability to go forward and be a competitive beast is also understated.

He can take a mark, gets after the loose ball, applies great tackling pressure and can kick a goal.

More opportunity in the midfield has resulted in Cerra averaging a career-high 5.3 clearances and a healthy 24.8 disposals as he starts to show why Carlton coughed up the cash to get him back from Fremantle.

Cerra can also be used across halfback or as a high half-forward, but Kennedy can impact more in his secondary position, having kicked 10 goals and logged eight goal assists across his first nine games.

Matthew Kennedy goals against the Blues

That ability to impact in another role is what sets these two midfielders apart for mine.

At the start of this year, I would have picked Cerra without hesitation.

But Kennedy – who is the No. 23 ranked player in the AFL according to Champion Data – deserves plenty of credit for his campaign at the Bulldogs.

Mick’s Pick: Matthew Kennedy

Lachie Schultz. Picture: Michael Klein

Jack Ginnivan. Picture: Getty Images

LACHIE SCHULTZ OR JACK GINNIVAN?

Context: For the next three seasons

Schultz is 27, Ginnivan is 22.

Time is on Ginnivan’s side, but will there even be a spot for him in the Hawthorn side three years from now?

He has already been dropped once this season and the Hawks have plenty of forwards to pick from.

Dylan Moore and Nick Watson are staples in attack, Connor McDonald has been a regular and Will Day and Jai Newcombe can spend time down there.

That’s not including the talls in Mabior Chol, Calsher Dear and even the flexible duo of James Sicily and Blake Hardwick who can fill spots in the forward six.

There’s no doubt that Ginnivan has quality forward craft, he understands how to create space and has terrific goal sense.

He has booted a respectable 7.5 from eight matches this season, but I question his preparation and professionalism at times.

Footy is about trust and reliability — it’s not about picking and choosing and purely relying on your creative nous.

Schultz is a tough cookie who teammates love playing with because he his team-first in everything he does with little fanfare.

Lachie Schultz's goal in 2024

He is a heart-and-soul type of teammate.

Schultz’s forward 50 pressure is elite and he has averaged 5.5 tackle a game this season — more than twice that of Ginnivan’s 2.4 a game.

Schultz doesn’t always hit the scoreboard like Ginnivan can, having kicked 5.6 from six matches this year.

But you can simply trust him more than Ginnivan to bring his all every week.

Mick’s Pick: Lachie Schultz

Zak Butters. Picture: Getty Images

Harley Reid. Picture: Getty Images

ZAK BUTTERS OR HARLEY REID?

Context: For the rest of their careers

On exposed form, Butters has a four year head start here.

But even when he was 20 — like Reid is now — I said publicly that he was a potential future captain of Port Adelaide.

He is vice-captain of the Power to support captain Connor Rozee, but in my eyes is the clear spiritual leader of a playing group which performs much better when he is on the field.

When Butters speaks, teammates listen because he is character in action and gets things done in areas of the game that matter most.

While I’d like to see Butters kick more goals than he does, I love the urgency he plays with, his team-first attitude and his ability to find players in space with kicks across his body that other players wouldn’t dare try and go for.

Across six games this season since returning from injury, he has averaged 29 disposals (14 contested), 7.5 clearances, seven tackles and 5.8 score involvements.

Butters plays on edge — which I love — much like Reid does as well.

The Power onballer tried to get in everyone’s face in his younger years as well but now puts his energy towards the ball — something that Reid must also do.

I’d also like to see Reid start to bring more defensive intent to his game, because it’s not all about playing the game with just an attacking mindset.

The petulant attitude that Reid has been showing can be eradicated if he wants to put the team first and is coached strongly.

He’s a versatile player who has all the makings of a future superstar if he can get that right.

But Butters is already there — as the No. 4 ranked player in the AFL according to Champion Data.

You never let champions like that leave your club without a fight and Port Adelaide must do everything they can to keep him beyond the end of his current contract which expires next year.

Mick’s Pick: Zak Butters

Kysaiah Pickett. Picture: Michael Klein

Luke Jackson. Picture: Getty Images

KYSAIAH PICKETT OR LUKE JACKSON?

Context: For the rest of their careers

These two are very different players, but they are also similar in that they are both 23 and were both first-round draft picks to Melbourne in 2019.

Pickett is a dynamic small forward who provides great pressure with his leg speed, but his game is also evolving as he is deployed more in the middle of the ground.

He attended 33 per cent of centre bounces in games he played in 2024, but has attended 63 per cent of centre bounces this year.

A 24-disposal and five-goal game against Fremantle in round 6 showed exactly why Simon Goodwin has been trying to get him around the ball a lot more and there is still upside to come in Pickett’s game if he can improve his consistency.

Jackson, who was traded to Fremantle at the end of 2022, took some time to find his feet at AFL level as most talls do.

However, he is a multi-positional player who is a clear point-of-difference.

As a ruckman, he’s more mobile than most and his follow-up work to get after the footy after the ruck contest is as good as anyone.

A bit like Nic Naitanui, I don’t think Jackson gets the recognition he should given he plays in the west.

Cheeky Pickett kicks a goal

But what he can provide as a No. 1 ruckman is similar to Naitanui with his follow-up work, ground ball wins and ability to push forward and take marks or get back and support his defence.

If Jackson wants to be the No. 1 ruckman, Fremantle might not be the club for him going forward given the Dockers have invested heavily in Sean Darcy.

But if Darcy doesn’t reach the expected level and get the continuity he needs to promote his talent, Justin Longmuir will need to bite the bullet and give Jackson the reigns.

Mick’s Pick: Luke Jackson

Originally published as AFL 2025: Mick McGuane’s verdict on eight big 50-50 calls