AFL 2024: Adelaide dreams of late finals run, Matthew Nicks holds out hope

Adelaide is less than a 1 per cent chance of sneaking into the top eight – but that won’t stop Matthew Nicks from dreaming big. The Crows coach explains why he hasn’t lost hope.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 19: Sam Berry of the Crows celebrates a goal during the 2024 AFL Round 19 match between the Essendon Bombers and the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium on July 19, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks is not giving up hope his team can secure an unlikely finals berth.

“0.6 per cent,” Nicks said, referring to the Crows’ chances of making the top eight.

“It’s still possible so you never want to give up on that.

“We just believe in the footy gods and keep doing what we’re doing.

“We’re going to have to beat some very good sides and it starts this week with Hawthorn.

“Unfortunately our (0-4) start to the year has put us in this position.”

Adelaide likely needs to win all five of its remaining games and rely on other contenders losing to make the finals.

Sam Berry celebrates a goal during Adelaide’s win over Essendon. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The odds are long – the Crows are listed at $51 to finish in the top eight – but Nicks’s side has kept its season alive on the back of winning three of its past four games.

Adelaide’s next hurdle is a Hawthorn team that has prevailed in seven of its past eight matches and nine of 11.

“The Hawks are the in-form team in the competition,” Nicks said.

“There’s not a team as confident as they are.

“Our guys are really confident with the way we’re playing our footy that we match up well.”

Veteran Taylor Walker will return after freshening up with a week off in the win over Essendon and Adelaide is weighing up playing four talls.

Defender Josh Worrell, who had not featured at AFL since round 9 because of a broken arm, and midfielder Matt Crouch, whose season was believed to be over when he had shoulder surgery in June, seemed likely to make their comebacks via the SANFL this week.

Nicks said his side might field a younger midfield again on Sunday, wanting to back them in.

The likes of Sam Berry, Jake Soligo and Zac Taylor – all 22 or under – played crucial midfield roles in the two-point victory over Essendon last week with captain Jordan Dawson (concussion) sidelined.

The Crows will field a shorter backline – partly out of necessity with Jordon Butts (foot) and Nick Murray (knee) sidelined – in a bid to combat the Hawks’ dangerous small forwards, including Jack Ginnivan and Dylan Moore.

James Borlase returns for his first AFL game since round 14, while first-year defender/on-baller Dan Curtin is in the mix to play his third match at the top level after some strong SANFL form.

RUN HOME: HOW LAST FIVE ROUNDS LOOK FOR PORT, CROWS

Port Adelaide faces one of the competition’s trickiest runs home while needing at least two more wins to qualify for the finals.

The Power sits seventh on the ladder with an 11-7 record heading into the last five games, where it plays three of the top four, premiership contender Melbourne and a Showdown.

Port begins its season-defining month away to second-placed Carlton at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.

It returns home the following week to host ladder leader Sydney, then tackles the Demons at the MCG, before taking on the in-form Crows and ending the campaign in Perth versus the fourth-ranked Dockers.

The Power can still secure a top-four berth if it gets on a roll but is in danger of missing the finals altogether if its form dips given the ladder is so tight.

The Power are right in the thick of the finals race. Picture: Getty Images

Two-and-a-half wins separate third-placed Brisbane from reigning premier Collingwood in 13th.

Port midfielder Willem Drew described the last five weeks as a great opportunity for his team.

“We have a tough run home but we are excited about it,” Drew said.

“Obviously the competition is so close at the moment and these games are massive for our season.”

The Power will go into Friday night’s game as underdogs against the Blues.

Carlton has won the past three games between the sides, including by 36 points at Adelaide Oval in round 12.

Port has strong recent record versus the Swans, winning seven in a row, last losing in round 20, 2016.

Strangely, the Power has not played Melbourne at the MCG since 2019.

Four of their past five meetings have been at Adelaide Oval, including a seven-point Demons win in round 3, one has been in Alice Springs and the other at the Gabba during covid.

Melbourne is in 10th position with a 10-8 record, but is just two victories and percentage off being second.

Like Carlton, Adelaide is on a three-match winning run against Port.

The Power has prevailed on the past two occasions versus the Dockers – by three points at home in round 5 and by 16 on their previous clash in Perth in round 23 last year.

Power assistant Josh Carr said the team knew what awaited it, but could not afford to look beyond Carlton.

“You can’t take your eyes off this week and (must focus on) one week at a time because it’s so close and you’ve got to make sure you’re not getting ahead of yourself,” Carr said.

Adelaide will play a big role in where sides finish in the top eight. Picture: Getty Images

Adelaide’s last five games are no easier but it is determined the shape the top eight.

After consecutive wins for just the second time this year, the Crows finish the minor round with matches against finals contenders Hawthorn (home), Geelong (away), the Western Bulldogs (home), Port (away) and Sydney (away).

Crows assistant Jack Hombsch said the side wanted to build momentum in the last part of the season.

“We have had our mid-season bye and we have really recalibrated and played some good footy over the past four weeks,” Hombsch said.

“We’ve been really open about wanting to finish this season strongly.”

Originally published as AFL 2024: Adelaide dreams of late finals run, Matthew Nicks holds out hope