AFL 2023: Sydney Swans’ late fade-outs expose startling reality about fall down the ladder

The Swans’ fall down the ladder after making last year’s grand final has been one of the stories of the year – and the numbers have exposed the big issue.

The Swans are facing a bottom-four finish less than a year after making the grand final. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The Swans would be firmly inside the top four if the final siren sounded at three-quarter time.

Sydney’s decline from grand finalists to a bottom-four team has been one of the stories of the AFL season. They have lost six games by 20 points or fewer and missed countless opportunities in their draw against Geelong.

But the Swans would have won 11 of their 16 matches had they carried on the lead they held at three-quarter time.

It’s a reminder that while Sydney isn’t far away from their best footy, their intent and consistency need to improve.

Sydney have been left to rue plenty of missed chances, particularly in games at home. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

“Games don’t go for three quarters. They go for four,” said John Longmire.

“We’ve got to play a bit longer than what we‘ve been playing and regardless of personnel, we’ve got to get that right.

“This time last year, we‘d only been in front in seven out of those 16 games. So, you know, we just haven’t been able to finish as strongly as we’d like to.”

The Swans aren’t the only team who would benefit from the final siren going early. Brisbane would jump to the top of the ladder while the Crows move into second position.

The new ladder also exposes the teams that have come home strong in 2023. The Bulldogs, Cats and Saints drop out of the top eight – a sign that they’re producing the four-quarter performances Longmire craves.

Reflecting on the season so far, the Sydney coach knows that while there are optimistic signs, missing out on finals is still a bitter pill to swallow.

“I think there’s a reality to it that you can’t escape,” John Longmire said. “Ultimately, that‘s what you get judged by (making finals).

“One thing, we’ve got a youngish midfield group and all the numbers that go through there.”

Longmire can sense that while his team aren’t far away, there’s no denying the nature of their drop off. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The Swans’ success in 2022 was built on the back of those midfielders. Chad Warner and James Rowbottom were praised for work around the stoppages while the likes of Errol Gulden and Justin McInerney provided run and carry down the wings.

It led Sydney to a clearance differential of +0.9 last year. That has dropped to -3.5 in 2023, the second-lowest mark in the AFL.

They’re also in the bottom third of the competition for contested possession differential (-1.7) and opposition points from clearances (33.2).

That’s despite Warner (10.57), Rowbottom (10.62) and Gulden (9.88) all averaging more contested possessions this season.

Errol Gulden has been one of the shining lights for the Swans in 2023. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

“We’ve done a lot right for lots of games this year,” Longmire said.

“Everyone wants one answer [for the decline]. It’s never one thing, it’s always a combination of things.

“Even on the weekend [against Richmond], we started the game and looked good at halftime, even when they came in and challenged us.

“There’s been something different every week, but we’ve got to be a bit more consistent.”

Unless the Swans can turn things around in the next two months, they face a staggering 12-position drop in the ladder. Only Fremantle in 2015 and 2016 have dropped more in the AFL era.

Their young core of players will undoubtedly be better for another season under their belts, but there’s no hiding the fact they’ve underachieved in 2023.

Originally published as AFL 2023: Sydney Swans’ late fade-outs expose startling reality about fall down the ladder