AFL 2023 Run Home: Every game and final ladder prediction
The AFL ladder was turned upside down after a host of bombshell upsets last week. What does that mean for the likely finals match-ups? See the full run home.
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It was a weekend where footy ventured into the upside down.
Upsets galore caused chaos to the ladder and has thrown the run home into disarray.
This incredibly tight season has us set for a grandstand finish and after going through every game to come in the final month before finals, our predicted ladder has seven sides winning between 13 and 11 games in an unprecedented squeeze for the top eight.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 16, Lost: 3, Points: 64, Percentage: 132.7
Was Friday the loss the Pies had to have or a sign for other teams how to beat them? Given the losses among the top-four this weekend, Collingwood should still claim the minor flag with ease.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 14, Lost: 5, Points: 56, Percentage: 109.8
A Showdown loss hurts anytime but when it could have just about sealed a top-two spot, it hurts even more. The Power have lost three in a row and righting the ship in Geelong would ease some growing concerns at Alberton. Tricky games against GWS and Richmond at home await after that.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 13, Lost: 6, Points: 52, Percentage: 125.2
A golden chance to claim a top-two spot went begging when the Lions let the Q-Clash slip. It could be the critical moment on the run home for Brisbane, who might need to knock off Collingwood at Marvel Stadium in round 23 to get past the Power. Percentage is still favouring the Lions, so they only have to make one game up.
4. MELBOURNE
Won: 13, Lost: 6, Points: 52, Percentage: 124.3
The sole top-four side to win in round 20, Melbourne is now in the box seat to finish in the top two. Wins over North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney should come, so an MCG clash with Carlton might be the deciding game for a home qualifying final. A far superior percentage gives the Dees an advantage over the Power.
5. ST KILDA
Won: 11, Lost: 8, Points: 44, Percentage: 106.5
What a breath of fresh air for Saints fans that it was their team that stood up and took the moment when other favourites squandered theirs this weekend. Hawthorn came hard at St Kilda but by weathering the storm, the Saints are within striking distance, needing just two more wins to lock in a top-eight spot. The draw is not kind but a bit more of the freewheeling dash shown this weekend and the Saints can make it.
6. GWS GIANTS
Won: 11, Lost: 8, Points: 44, Percentage: 102.4
No team has a winning record that can match the Giants, having banked their last seven to go from a potential bottom-four finish to now likely finish in the eight. Toby Greene’s men need just two more wins from here to make it, and a Sydney Derby win on Saturday night will get them one step closer. Will the Giants now host an elimination final?
7. CARLTON
Won: 10, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 116.5
Just like the Giants, the Blues have gone from rank outsiders to now favourites for a top-eight finish. Carlton should get there from here, likely needing to win just two more games. They could potentially win all four, with Blues fans riding high after a powerful win over Collingwood on Friday.
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 10, Lost: 9, Points: 40, Percentage: 105.7
This column predicted before the weekend that the Dogs would lose to GWS in Ballarat but still make the eight and that path remains wide open. But given their relatively poor percentage, the Dogs will have to win three of four to get there. Games against Hawthorn and West Coast should be banked, so a win in a massive game against Richmond this Friday night would be a huge step forward.
9. GEELONG
Won: 9, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 119.5
By laying an egg against Fremantle on Saturday, Geelong narrowed its path to September significantly. The Cats now need to win three of their last four and that final month begins with the top two sides in the competition. Thankfully for them, Port Adelaide heads to Geelong out-of-form. It’s hard to back the Cats in with any confidence in any of their last four games, a final-round home game against the Dogs could be the decider for their premiership defence.
10. SYDNEY
Won: 9, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 111.2
The Swans remain in striking distance even as they deal with injuries to key players, with four winnable games to come. This weekend proved the ladder doesn’t necessarily mean much when it comes to cross-town derbies and even a final round clash with Melbourne is at home. Win all four from here, Sydney make it. Win three and it will likely come down to percentage.
11. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 97.9
Leading late on Sunday against Melbourne, a win would have put Richmond in the box seat to make the finals. Now the Tigers probably need to win twice at Marvel Stadium and don’t ask Damien Hardwick how much they like playing there. It’s a tough run but they can still get there.
12. ADELAIDE
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Points: 36, Percentage: 116
The Crows are still probably too far back but a soft draw keeps the door ajar. They need to win every game from here to make sure of playing finals, but would start favourites in each of them except a trip to face the Lions. With Taylor Walker doing a pretty good Wayne Carey impression, anything is possible.
13. ESSENDON
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Points: 36, Percentage: 98.4
We’re getting dangerously close to ‘mathematically possible’ territory here for the Bombers. They should win their next two so you can’t put a line through them just yet but it would be a remarkable run to make finals from here.
14. GOLD COAST
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Points: 36, Percentage: 95.2
Much like Essendon, Gold Coast can make it but given the Suns’ draw, we will put a line through them. It’s too hard from here and really, the club moved its focus to 2024 a few weeks ago when Stewart Dew was moved on. Getting to 10 wins would equal 2014 and 2022 as Gold Coast’s most wins in a season.
15. FREMANTLE
Won: 8, Lost: 11, Points: 32, Percentage: 89
Was that win over Geelong a pleasant surprise or the cause of more frustration for Fremantle fans? The Dockers showed what they are capable of and what has been missing in this lost year. Three games in Perth to come for Justin Longmuir to build for 2024.
16. HAWTHORN
Won: 5, Lost: 14, Points: 20,Percentage: 78.4
With Fremantle’s win, the Hawks are now virtually locked into their worst-ever finish at 16th. Some tough games to come, with the final round against the Dockers the most winnable.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 17, Points: 8, Percentage: 67.6
North Melbourne now appears set to tie the 1972 season for the most losses in club history with 21. Again Brett Ratten got close but couldn’t get the Roos over the line. A big percentage gap keeps the Roos above top spot but the wooden spoon isn’t far away.
18. WEST COAST
Won: 2, Lost: 17, Points: 8, Percentage: 50.6
It might be a lot simpler for everybody if West Coast can snag an upset Western Derby win and move past North Melbourne, taking the conversation about Harley Reid moving to Perth out of West Coast’s hands. The win over North Melbourne means West Coast will at least equal last year as the club’s lowest win tally in a season.
Originally published as AFL 2023 Run Home: Every game and final ladder prediction
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