AFL 2023 crystal ball: Every club’s win tally for 2023 predicted, vote to have your say
TAB have released their lines on every club’s win total in 2023, but which are the locks you need to set your sights on? Our form experts have weighed in, do you agree? HAVE YOUR SAY.
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How many games will your team win in 2023?
TAB has set the line market for every club and our form experts Jay Clark and Gilbert Gardiner have their say on who will rise and who will fall this season.
Plus, the footy bets of the season.
ADELAIDE
TAB projected season-win tally: 9.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The Crows have made a significant investment in the forward line mix but there are still concerns about this midfield group. There will be fireworks and plenty of intrigue around Izak Rankine, Josh Rachelle and Riley Thilthorpe but the list still looks a long way off. First two months of the fixture look tough, too, as the club is a genuine chance to be 0-5. Big challenge for coach Matthew Nicks.
GARDINER: Under
Kind draw overall, but tricky start to the year could make-or-break the season. Have they got the cattle to notch double-digit wins? Would be a surprise if they did.
BRISBANE
TAB projected season-win tally: 14.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
The Lions are cherry ripe for a genuine top-two berth. It was a huge trade period adding Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft, Conor McKenna, Jack Gunston and Ashcroft looks a monty for the Rising Star award. Harris Andrews shoulders a big load in the back line and the club will count heavily on Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood but there are no excuses for Chris Fagan’s men.
GARDINER: Over
Covered the line in four of the past five seasons. List only gets stronger with the trade period recruits and you know they will chalk up the wins at home. MCG hoodoo behind them, too.
CARLTON
TAB projected season-win tally: 13.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
Could be the pick of the lot. The Blues have a soft draw and have been building for, well, a decade to get to this point. Should have played finals last year but pulled the handbrake in the last month after a nightmare injury run. Michael Voss would be a little worried about some of the continued injuries over the summer but this a superstar list which will ride a wave of momentum on the big stage.
GARDINER: Under
Not convinced. Read lots about the kind draw but loss of Zac Williams and Sam Walsh hurt and Mitch McGovern and Jack Martin have been on and off the track over summer. Should be around the mark again after 12 wins last season.
COLLINGWOOD
TAB projected season-win tally: 12.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
It was an extraordinary season for the Magpies last year but their percentage (104.3) was only a toenail ahead of Gold Coast’s (102.8) in 12th. They can’t win as many close ones, and teams will have gone to school on their game style. But the midfield improves with Tom Mitchell and Nick Daicos in his second year and Daniel McStay will become the main banana in attack, strengthening the forward setup. This line will be extremely tight, but back Craig McRae to bank enough victories to put the Pies in contention again.
GARDINER: Under
Emerged as the AFL ice men last year winning nine matches by nine points or less. Second hardest draw in the competition and double ups against Geelong, Brisbane and Carlton hurts.
ESSENDON
TAB projected season-win tally: 10.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The Bombers will still have one of the youngest lists in the competition and it is hard to envisage a rapid rise under new coach Brad Scott. Need another key forward and key defender and a year into the brigade of young small forwards. The positives are Zach Merrett is in excellent shape and Will Setterfield will provide some strength in the engine room, too. May move the ball more slowly to protect the defence.
GARDINER: Under
Untrustworthy. Gone above and below the line the past four years. Should take a step forward in 2023 but an extra 3.5 wins on last season a stretch.
FREMANTLE
TAB projected season-win tally: 12.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
Why is this line so low? Bet of the year. Fremantle will attempt to go deep into September with a list which improved over summer and a defence they know they can count on. Should notch up more wins at home and Nat Fyfe will plan to be out on the park a lot more in a forward role. Michael Walters in a similar boat. Ticks everywhere.
GARDINER: Over
Banked 15 home and away wins last year and pulled off a coup in the off-season adding Luke Jackson and Jaeger O’Meara.
GEELONG
TAB projected season-win tally: 16.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
Hunger is the only query, and this club has embarrassed its critics plenty of times over the journey. Tom Hawkins will be back in the first few rounds, and their pickups in the trade period will ensure they remain at the top. But 17 wins is a huge season, even with their home record. Chris Scott will continue to manage his troops on occasions which could leave them vulnerable at times. Huge back-to-back chance but 17 may be one too many. The youngsters will be played.
GARDINER: Over
Tough draw and lost a wealth of experience and inspiration but the Cats been far too consistent in the home-and-away season to discount. The benchmark.
GOLD COAST
TAB projected season-win tally: 10.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
This is the year, isn’t it? It has to be. The Suns have tested the league’s patience and Stuart Dew will be under the microscope (again) if the franchise club can’t make a serious tilt at their first finals appearance. They have had another huge summer on the track and are expected to start the season strongly but need to break the trend of tripping over in the back half of the campaign.
GARDINER: Over
Should play finals for the first time in club history – anything less is a failure. Watch Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Touk Miller begin to dominate the engine room.
GWS
TAB projected season-win tally: 9.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The Giants underachieved in a big way in 2022 and the highly-paid midfield stars had a poor year. Lachie Whitfield battled through a wrecked ankle and will attempt to bounce back strongly, and new coach Adam Kingsley is keen to change the way the onball group operates. Some pressure forward would help. Jesse Hogan in great shape.
GARDINER: Over
Threw in the towel last year but too much firepower on the list not to rally behind first-year coach Adam Kingsley and new captain Toby Greene after the disappointment of 2022.
HAWTHORN
TAB projected season-win tally: 6.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The Hawks are every chance to take out the wooden spoon after making some massive calls in the exchange period to punt Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara. It’s bold, probably the right call, and Sam Mitchell won’t deviate from his stated mission. But 2023 will be a tough year on the field. Harley Reid, the likely No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, will be a rich reward if they finish bottom.
GARDINER: Under
Wooden spoon contender as full rebuild mode activated. Lots riding on Jai Newcombe and James Worpel in the guts. Who kicks their goals?
MELBOURNE
TAB projected season-win tally: 14.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
Signs over summer indicate Melbourne is primed return to the top after last year’s disappointing straight sets exit. Brodie Grundy has turned heads on the track and Jacob van Rooyen will surely replace Ben Brown in the forward line, while Lachie Hunter adds some class delivery inside-50m. If they stay fit, they’ll be up to their eyeballs in another premiership opportunity. Training has been intense.
GARDINER: Over
Got too big for their britches last year as reigning premier and got stung. Will not make the same mistake twice.
NORTH MELBOURNE
TAB projected season-win tally: 6.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The club all but fell apart last year as David Noble completely lost the players. But Alastair Clarkson has gone back to basics and looked to reprogram the list on the defensive fundamentals of the game, so there will be less blowouts in 2023. But their depth is still an issue at either end of the ground and this will be a baby step forward. Charlie Comben and Paul Curtis need break-out years in attack and Ben McKay faces a big decision on his future down back.
GARDINER: Under
New era at Arden Street but gap between the Kangaroos’ best and worst last year too stark to warrant a rapid climb up the ladder.
RICHMOND
TAB projected season-win tally: 13.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
The team which won the flag in 2020 has been harder to read than a set of Ikea instructions over the two years. But there is an edge about their preparation. Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are waxing in the middle like Mr Miyagi and Dustin Martin has a full pre-season under the belt on a forward flank. Could kick 40 goals, Dusty. Defensively there have been some question marks but Noah Balta should settle in the back half.
GARDINER: Over
Back on the upward curve and love the inclusions of hard-edge midfielders Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. Dylan Grimes needs to stay on the park. Tiger time, again.
PORT ADELAIDE
TAB projected season-win tally: 12.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
This looks line ball and they need a decent run with injuries, unlike last year. Coach Ken Hinkley is all-in after adding Willie Rioli and Jason Horne-Francis to the forward mix. But the big upside lies within Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters, who all have elite capabilities. Nightmare start to the fixture.
GARDINER: Under
Should be around the mark but mix form too much to be considered a genuine finals contender.
ST KILDA
TAB projected season-win tally: 10.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
The list needs some significant repairs after trades to top-up left the club neither here nor there. You know Ross Lyon will lift the standards and inject more discipline and defensive principles, and he says they will try to maximize the running power on the list. But how will the small ball forward line fire? Tackle pressure will have to be through the roof after a shocking run of pre-season injuries. Reset will take time.
GARDINER: Over
Low confidence. St Kilda has been the model 9-11 win team the past few years and really only banking on comeback coach Ross Lyon to again be a difference maker at Moorabbin.
SYDNEY SWANS
TAB projected season-win tally: 13.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
It was a nightmare end to an otherwise excellent season for the Swans when they got pumped in the Grand Final. History says scars can linger after a thrashing in the premiership decider, but it would be no surprise to see John Longmire’s band of young playmakers buck that trend. Chad Warner and Logan McDonald will be exciting to follow and will ensure there’s plenty of growth, even if Luke Parker’s best footy is behind him. Will be hard to beat again.
GARDINER: Under
Need only look over the bridge to see what happens after a crushing Grand Final defeat. Too good to slide out of contention completely but wary of the MCG scar tissue.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
TAB projected season-win tally: 12.5
The verdict
CLARK: Over
Intriguing season ahead for the Bulldogs who have changed the way they defend after a leaky 2022. Liam Jones thickens the soup in the back end and Rory Lobb will form a potent three-headed monster in attack with Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, but Sam Darcy looks as talented as any of them approaching his second season. Big question is how they become more accountable through the middle without Dunkley.
GARDINER: Under
Too hot and cold the past few years and double ups against Geelong, Richmond and Fremantle only makes it harder to secure 13-plus wins.
WEST COAST
TAB projected season-win tally: 9.5
The verdict
CLARK: Under
They’ve had a shocker over the past three years and injuries were a big factor, but it’s time the Eagles dialed in, prepared well and showed some resilience. It appears this club has flown the white flag at times since the 2018 premiership and they are hard to trust. Should win games at home but the bigger tests will come on the road. Ten wins looks a stretch.
GARDINER: Under
It could take the Eagles three seasons to win a combined 10 games. Rebuild now for the future.
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Originally published as AFL 2023 crystal ball: Every club’s win tally for 2023 predicted, vote to have your say
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