AFL 2020: Expert predictions for the finals series

Just over 50 per cent of our experts think the Tigers will win this year’s flag. But who are the rest picking? To say it is wide open would be an understatement. Check out the Crystal Ball for more predictions and HAVE YOUR SAY.

AFL Round 16. Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles at Metricon Stadium. 05/09/2020 … Tom Liberatore of the Bulldogs drives the ball inside 50. Pic: Michael Klein

It has been the most drawn out season in AFL history, but we’ve finally reached the fun stuff.

Our experts have been watching every moment from that first bounce at the MCG way back in March 19 to the footy extravaganza in Queensland, and they’ve offered their predictions for how the finals are going to play out.

Are the Tigers set to join the Lions, the Cats and the Hawks as the only clubs to win three or more premierships this century?

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Will Lachie Neale take home Brisbane’s fourth Brownlow Medal, after Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis and Simon Black? Picture: Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

Is Lachie Neale a lock to win the Brownlow, or can an outside chance like Power veteran Travis Boak or Demons young gun Christian Petracca claim the medal?

And will Dusty Martin create history as the only man to win three Norm Smith medals?

Check out all the predictions below, vote, and have your say in the comments.

MARK ROBINSON

PREMIER: Richmond — Won eight of nine, beating West Coast, Brisbane, Geelong, and Dogs in that period and reckon their consistency of pressure is the best in the competition.. No grounds to doubt them

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Nick Vlastiuin

MR OCTOBER: Gary Ablett

SPRING SURPRISE: Cameron Raynor

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

MICHAEL WARNER

PREMIER: Richmond — Some said they lacked the hunger and off-field leadership to get it done again, but the Tigers still bat deeper than their nearest rivals and have timed their run to perfection.

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Dustin Martin

MR OCTOBER: Shane Edwards

SPRING SURPRISE: Liam Baker

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

MICK MCGUANE

PREMIER: Geelong — Good contested, possession based team that have good players in all areas of the ground. Their team defence is rock solid, have a deep midfield and have an efficient forward line led by Tom Hawkins, Gary Rohan and Gary Ablett.

RUNNER UP: Richmond

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Patrick Dangerfield

MR OCTOBER: Dustin Martin

SPRING SURPRISE: Shai Bolton

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

MICK MALTHOUSE

PREMIER: Port Adelaide — The most consistent team of the year, generally win with a full team effort but also have several match winners, in Dixon, Grey, Boak to name a few.

They have a solid defence and a good spread of young and experienced players who all know their roles.

RUNNER UP: Richmond

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Dan Houston

MR OCTOBER: Dusty Martin

SPRING SURPRISE: Todd Marshall

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

JON RALPH

PREMIER: Richmond — They have the system, the Queensland form, the players in form, the stars on the park (with Tom Lynch returning). Doesn’t mean they win it but they deserve favouritism.

RUNNER UP: Brisbane

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Nick Vlastuin

MR OCTOBER: Charlie Cameron

SPRING SURPRISE: Cam Rayner

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

JAY CLARK

PREMIER: Richmond — We’ll be saluting Damien Hardwick as one of the game’s greatest coaches in a few weeks. Re-tooled the defence, turned Shai Bolton into a jet midfielder, and will unleash Dusty on the big stage. Late-season COVID-19 breach might have sharpened things. Box seat

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Shane Edwards

MR OCTOBER: Dylan Grimes

SPRING SURPRISE: Zak Butters

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

GLENN McFARLANE

PREMIER: Richmond — The Tigers have had their fair share of drama this year, but their brand stands up in finals, their experience counts for plenty and a bloke named Dustin Martin just rises to the new level in … (well) October this year.

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Make that a record three Norm Smiths for Dustin Martin

MR OCTOBER: Patrick Dangerfield

SPRING SURPRISE: Shai Bolton

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

SCOTT GULLAN

PREMIER: Geelong — This crazy season needs a feel-good fairytale ending and Gary Ablett leading the Cats to a flag has to be it. They played the most impressive football of the season when dismantling Port and St Kilda inside five days back in August. Just need to repeat that for the next month.

RUNNER UP: Richmond

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Patrick Dangerfield

MR OCTOBER: Patrick Dangerfield

SPRING SURPRISE: Tim English

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

LAUREN WOOD

PREMIER: Richmond — It’s the vibe. The way the Tigers have timed their run – and the return of key players – has eerie shades of recent years. Dusty keeps doing Dusty things and you get the feeling they’re really ready to fire with all cogs turning in tune.

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Shane Edwards

MR OCTOBER: Patrick Dangerfield

SPRING SURPRISE: Liam Baker

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

SAM LANDSBERGER

PREMIER: Richmond — In 2017 it was Dusty haircuts on Swan St and in 2020 it’ll be mixed special kebabs on Cavill Avenue. Great mates Clarko and Dimma will soon have seven premierships combined as the Tigers achieve what the great Geelong team of 2007-11 couldn’t, and go back-to-back.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Shai Bolton

MR OCTOBER: Tom Liberatore

SPRING SURPRISE: Queensland boots Annastacia Palaszczuk, the queen of the AFL season, out of office one week after the Gabba Grand Final.

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

REECE HOMFRAY

PREMIER: Brisbane — They’re fit and healthy, won’t leave home, have the best midfield in the comp, got a taste last year and won’t want to experience that finals flop again.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Lachie Neale

MR OCTOBER: Robbie Gray

SPRING SURPRISE: Zac Bailey

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Travis Boak

LIZ WALSH

PREMIER: Brisbane — It will be an all non-Victorian grand final this year, with the Lions well placed to take full advantage of playing the grand final on their home ground.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Lachie Neale

MR OCTOBER: Travis Boak

SPRING SURPRISE: Cam Rayner

BROWNLOW MEDAL: A tie between Lachie Neale and Travis Boak

Finals fact: Since 1990, just nine teams that finished on top of the ladder won the flag. Bombers (1993 & 2000), Eagles (1994 & 2006), Blues (1995), Power (2004), Cats (2007), Magpies (2010) and Hawks (2013).

JON ANDERSON

PREMIER: Richmond — No obvious reason why the best team of the last three years won’t make it three from four years.

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Jack Riewoldt

MR OCTOBER: Jack Riewoldt

SPRING SURPRISE: Shai Bolton

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

CHRIS CAVANAGH

PREMIER: Richmond — At their best, the Tigers are still the best team in the competition by some margin. They’ve built some momentum on the back of six-straight wins and have got key troops back at the right time.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Dylan Grimes

MR OCTOBER: Robbie Gray

SPRING SURPRISE: Jake Aarts

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

Finals fact: Since the current finals system was introduced in 2000, teams that played each other in the first week of finals have met each other in the Grand Final on five occasions – and in only one of those was the result the same as week one – Eagles v Magpies in 2018. Magpies v Lions (2003), Eagles v Swans (2005 & 2006), and Eagles v Hawks were all reversed.

NICK SMART

PREMIER: Richmond — The Tigers have the experience, the nous and the star power required to do it again. It will be their third flag in four years and you get the feeling they’re not done yet.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Shane Edwards

MR OCTOBER: Charlie Dixon

SPRING SURPRISE: Noah Balta

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

REBECCA WILLIAMS

PREMIER: Port Adelaide — They haven’t been given a lot of cred so far as a contender, but there’s a reason they won the minor premiership and have the game to go all the way.

RUNNER UP: Richmond

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Travis Boak

MR OCTOBER: Dustin Martin

SPRING SURPRISE: Noah Balta

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

Finals fact: In the past 15 years, only four players who had the most touches in the Grand Final won the Norm Smith for their performance. Chris Judd (2005), Scott Pendlebury and Lenny Hayes (2010), and Luke Shuey (2018).

MATTHEW TURNER

PREMIER: Geelong — They are a hardened finals side with Ablett and Selwood’s returns to provide a major boost. More experienced than last year. Just feels like it is their time (again).

RUNNER UP: Richmond

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Sam Menegola

MR OCTOBER: Patrick Dangerfield

SPRING SURPRISE: Esava Ratugolea

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Travis Boak

CHRIS HONNERY

PREMIER: Brisbane — If there was ever a year for the Lions to win, it’s in 2020. The high-flying Brisbane side had their best season in recent years and with a Gabba grand final, it’s even more incentive to make it to the big dance.

RUNNER UP: Geelong

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Dayne Zorko

MR OCTOBER: Charlie Cameron

SPRING SURPRISE: Keidan Coleman

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON

PREMIER: Geelong — Forget the last two games, Geelong are still building nicely. Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood have returned at the right time, Tom Hawkins can tear teams apart and Patrick Dangerfield looks on a mission.

RUNNER UP: Port Adelaide

NORM SMITH MEDAL: Patrick Dangerfield

MR OCTOBER: Patrick Dangerfield

SPRING SURPRISE: Mark Blicavs

BROWNLOW MEDAL: Lachie Neale

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Originally published as AFL 2020: Expert predictions for the finals series