AFL 2024: Where it has gone wrong for Geelong in losing streak and how they fix it

Geelong has lost four games in a row for the first time under Chris Scott. What has gone wrong since their seven-straight wins? We assess their issues and how they can fix them.

It is never as good or as bad as it seems.

The saying rings true for Geelong’s season to date and the position they find themselves in right now.

The Cats were flying after seven wins to start the season where they looked every bit a flag contender.

But coach Chris Scott has said in recent weeks that even they knew they weren’t performing as well as that record suggested.

Since then, the Cats have lost three games by less than eight points and along with one complete blowout, which Scott viewed as an outlier.

Geelong’s loss to Greater Western Sydney marked the first time coach Scott has lost four games in a row across his 292-game coaching tenure.

While two of those defeats have come at their home fortress of Kardinia Park, their three narrow losses are to teams sitting third, fourth and fifth on the ladder, with the Cats in sixth position themselves.

It is first time Chris Scott has lost four games in a row. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

However, Carlton remains the only team inside the top eight side that the Cats have knocked off inside the first 11 rounds.

The rest of their sixth wins have come up against teams unlikely to make the finals in 2024: St Kilda (15th), Adelaide (12th), Western Bulldogs (11th), Hawthorn (14th), Brisbane (13th) and North Melbourne (18th).

Is Geelong a premiership contender, or are they destined to miss the finals altogether?

As always, the answer is somewhere in the middle, but they have some issues to address if they are to turn their form around.

And a loss to the Tigers at home this weekend would be catastrophic.

MIDFIELD CONCERNS

There were question marks over the midfield in the pre-season, but even when the Cats were up and about it remained an issue.

In the first five rounds, Geelong was 14th for points conceded from stoppages, 15th for contested possessions and 17th for clearances.

Over the last six weeks, they are 17th for points against from stoppages, 15th for contested possession differential and 15th for clearance differential.

Most will point to the absence of Patrick Dangerfield over the past four weeks, who will miss another 1-2 weeks with injury.

While he undoubtedly leaves a hole, Geelong’s midfield numbers are comparable if not worse with him in the line-up – the Cats have a -10.5 clearance differential with Dangerfield compared to -1 without him.

Still, their midfield lacks star power and ball-winning ability.

That’s why Max Holmes shapes as the most crucial magnet on Scott’s board.

It was difficult to move Holmes to the middle after his stellar form at halfback early in the season, but Geelong has increased his time on-ball in the past fortnight.

After spending just eight per cent of time in the midfield in the first nine rounds, Holmes’ on-ball time rose to 47 per cent of time in round 10 and 80 per cent in round 11, where he was the top-ranked Cat on the ground with 32 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 553 metres gained, five clearances and a goal.

Max Holmes starred in the midfield against the Giants. Picture: Martin Keep/AFL Photos/Getty Images

“We probably thought he was a midfielder at the start of the year but he was just so electric behind the ball that we kept going with it,” Scott said post-match.

“But we have been beaten in that area for a few weeks now, so it just made sense to have him around the ball a bit more. I think he has delivered.”

He has to continue playing primarily as a midfielder – especially with Mark Blicavs and Jhye Clark suspended and Cam Guthrie and Dangerfield missing again this week.

Brandan Parfitt’s omission raised eyebrows – having averaged the second most clearances of any Cat this year – and he should come straight back in for Clark.

Geelong should also consider giving Mitch Hardie his first taste of AFL footy.

The 26-year-old has been winning possessions for fun on the inside and the outside for Geelong’s VFL side, rating elite for disposals, uncontested possessions, clearances and score involvements this season and is coming off 37 disposals, nine clearances and a goal last weekend.

LEAKY DEFENCE

Leaky isn’t a term we generally associate with the Cats.

But in the past four weeks they are dead last in the competition for scores conceded per inside 50s, 16th for points against and 16th for points against from turnovers.

It was a completely different story in their seven wins, where they were able to restrict ball movement with ease. At that stage the Cats were on track to concede the least scores from turnover of any side of all time.

Their second quarters have been poor in the last three weeks, conceding -12, -36 and -33, leaving them with a massive mountain to climb after the halftime break.

Alarmingly, the Cats gave up goals in 35 per cent of Gold Coast’s 20 second-quarter entries in round 10. And it was even worse against the Giants, who kicked a goal from 40 per cent of theirs in the second term last Saturday.

It is never about individuals, and their midfield deficiencies have made it more difficult for the Cats back six, but key defender Sam De Koning has been exposed at times.

While he is 12th in the competition for winning one-on-one contests this season, he has lost 29 per cent of them – ranked 33rd in the competition.

He often takes the best key forward from the opposition side but he was convincingly beaten by Jake Riccardi in their loss.

At 23, he has a bright future ahead and with Jake Kolodjashnij and Jack Henry alongside him, he can definitely turn it around.

So can the Cats, who boasted one of the best elite defensive profiles in the competition during their winning streak.

Sam De Koning had his colours lowered over the weekend. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

TRADE AND FREE AGENCY

Hitting the draft after a quiet trade and free agency period last year, the Cats can afford to be aggressive.

And the acquisition of a quality on-baller should be front of mind to address their lacklustre midfield – especially with Dangerfield turning 35 next year.

Western Bulldogs excitement machine Bailey Smith, who the Cats have been linked to, looms as the perfect candidate with his line-breaking speed and ball-winning.

And he would play 100 per cent midfield, unlike at the Bulldogs where he has been pushed out of the centre square at times.

The Cats should target Bailey Smith. Picture: David Crosling

Elliot Yeo has recaptured his best form at the Eagles after an injury riddled few years, averaging the third-most clearances per game in the competition. He is a free agent and his contested ball-winning is just what the Cats need at the source.

Even with the promising development of Toby Conway and Shannon Neale, they may also need to look at an experienced key forward and ruckman in the event Tom Hawkins and Rhys Stanley call time.

Could another Bulldog in ruck-forward Rory Lobb be the perfect stopgap?

Lobb looks to be heading to a fourth club after being stuck on the outer at the Kennell. And while he isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, he is too good to be playing in the VFL, kicking 17 goals in seven games this season.

He turns 32 next year, but the Cats have shown that age is no barrier before, and he is unlikely to be worth a great deal on the trade market despite having two years left to run on his contract.

Geelong Falcons export Sean Darcy has been continually talked about as a trade option for the Cats and he has signed until the end of 2030 on a monster long-term deal with the Dockers.

But it is still worth asking the question as concerns hang over Fremantle’s dual ruck set-up with Darcy and Luke Jackson.

Originally published as AFL 2024: Where it has gone wrong for Geelong in losing streak and how they fix it