AFL 2021: Mick Malthouse on what separates Melbourne from Carlton

Carlton is where Melbourne was last year. The list profiles are very similar but there are key differences - and they are holding the Blues back, writes Mick Malthouse.

I haven’t been a big fan of the Demons since they were thrashed in the 2018 preliminary final by West Coast.

Melbourne went from fourth that season to 17th, then to ninth last year, so its consistency has been questionable.

But this year it is a different team. In fact, you can’t fault Simon Goodwin’s men.

And it’s not just because they are undefeated at the top of the table. It’s because they are getting the most out of their list. A list that is remarkably similar to the club the Demons face Sunday, Carlton.

The Blues are where Melbourne was last year. The team profiles are very similar.

But they are separated at the moment by the Demons’ will to win and commitment to the task. No soft options. No soft players.

There is still a long way to go, and there are going to be some bumps in the road, but the indicators are that it’s going to take a very good side to beat Melbourne because of the way it currently plays.

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You can’t fault Simon Goodwin and his men, says Mick Malthouse. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

In the past three seasons, the Blues have finished 18th, 16th and 11th. They were 13th heading into Round 9 with three wins, though they’ve remained in the hunt in almost every game.

Carlton fielded nine players from other clubs in Round 8, Melbourne had six. Carlton had nine players selected with first-round draft picks, as did Melbourne.

Structurally both sides are very similar, too.

The Blues’ leading goalkicker, and current Coleman Medal leader, Harry McKay — who averages an outstanding 3.8 goals per game — can be compared to Melbourne’s first-round draft pick Luke Jackson (out injured this weekend), who is not just a dangerous support forward for Bayley Fritsch and Ben Brown, but an important backup for Max Gawn, allowing him to rest and improve his output for an entire game.

Key Demon back Steven May is similar to Blues back Jacob Weitering. Both hold tight and generally win their one-on-one contests. Both are fine contributors.

There’s little to split them — May averages 20 disposals per game and Weitering 18, with 434m gained on average for May, and 385m for Weitering.

Steven May is the rock of Melbourne’s backline. Picture: Michael Klein

Reigning Carlton best-and-fairest Jacob Weitering has gone to another level again in 2021. Picture: Michael Klein

The more I look at it, the more I see parallels between the two clubs and wonder why such a big gap separates them on the ladder.

Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, and Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps are all extraordinary players. There’s no question that any side would love to have any of those four.

And the numbers are similar again. Oliver averages 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions and seven clearances per game in 2021. Petracca (29, 12 and three), Walsh (29, 11 and four) and Cripps (25, 13 and six) all have very similar numbers. There’s little between them.

But Melbourne this year, compared to last season, has improved greatly in its metres gained from the centre. Oliver and Petracca give the Dees almost 1000m gained per match between them, compared to Walsh and Cripps with a tick over 600m.

There is more support around the Demons duo this year, and with Gawn leading the way as usual, and Jackson as his sidekick, Melbourne is extremely effective through the middle.

Whereas Cripps has struggled recently. I think it’s the burden of expectation. He takes a hell of a lot on those young shoulders as co-captain. And when the side is not performing to the level Blues supporters want, it further weighs him down.

Walsh is young and can’t be expected to do it all on his own.

Star Demons Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Picture: Michael Klein

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh charge out of the centre square. Picture: Michael Klein

A smoky for the Brownlow Medal this year is Christian Salem. He is a lethal weapon for the rebounding power of Melbourne, as is Sam Docherty for Carlton. Salem averages 27 disposals a game and 520m gained. Docherty averages 26 and 590m. The stats are remarkably similar.

As much as Docherty is neat with his kicking, I don’t think he has the same penetration power and accuracy as Salem.

Kysaiah Pickett and Marc Murphy both average 15 disposals per game. But Pickett averages four tackles and two goals, while Murphy averages two and one respectively. Those subtle differences become magnified when there is a discrepancy in win-loss ratios.

There seems to be an attraction to play at Carlton, as evidenced by the number of players that change clubs to get there. Zac Williams was recruited last year along with Adam Saad and Lachie Fogarty. There is no question that Saad is a very good rebounding back. So, too, is Williams, but he was recruited as a midfielder, not a defender.

Wishing a player to perform in an unsuited position is fraught with danger. There might be cameos, but Carlton has probably recruited an expensive running half-back, not the mid they were after. His return of nine disposals and one tackle last Sunday against the Western Bulldogs, is hardly the reason they chased him.

Blues Zac Williams and Sam Docherty after the loss to the Lions. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

Goodwin has changed the Demons’ game structure this season. They are playing more defensive football which ultimately opens up the opposition going forward, and they have secured their wins without huge scores.

The players are certainly playing for one another more than they ever have under Goodwin, too.

It is extremely hard to continue to win a big number of games in a row. You need luck with injuries and luck with the draw.

I’m interested to see how Melbourne deals with its first loss, because that defeat will come. Gawn is an outstanding leader, and it is leadership that will get them to rebound quickly both mentally and physically.

There’s no foreseeable respite in the fixture for the Blues. They are certainly a team that has the credentials, the scoring power, and the midfield to go forward, but they need to find their will to fight out a victory, either coming from behind or hanging on when challenged by a good team. They need to get rid of the mental demons that brand them soft.

Carlton will win a big game — possibly on Sunday — and that could be the turning point.

Because just like the Demons, it has the profile and the structure, it just needs the grunt to match.

Originally published as AFL 2021: Mick Malthouse on what separates Melbourne from Carlton