Regional QLD house price growth tipped to beat the major capitals

Regional Queensland has been named one of Australia’s top ‘rising stars’ to watch in 2022, with growth tipped to outpace the major capitals, and some of the suburbs might surprise you.

Regional Queensland has been named one of Australia’s top “rising stars” to watch in 2022, with prospects for growth predicted to outpace the major capitals.

Canstar’s inaugural ‘Rising Stars Report’, in collaboration with Hotspotting, has ranked the nation’s eight capital cities and six regional areas based on their prospects for growth, drilling down into sales volumes, quarterly price growth, vacancy rates, rental growth and infrastructure spending.

Regional NSW came out on top, closely followed by regional Queensland (2) and regional Western Australia (3), with those areas tipped to outperform Sydney (4), Canberra (5), Darwin (6), Perth (7), Brisbane (8), Adelaide (9), regional Victoria (10), Melbourne (11), regional Tasmania (12), Hobart (13) and regional South Australia (14).

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Brisbane was ranked 8th in the report, behind regional Queensland at number 2 nationally.

“This result is largely thanks to the ‘Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle’ trend which is creating high demand and rising prices in the smaller capital cities and major regional centres,” the report said.

“Interestingly, despite the fact that it secured the 2032 Olympics, Brisbane is in the bottom half of the rankings coming in eighth overall for 2022.

“But, longer term, its prospects are good and it is eventually likely to become one of the strongest markets in the nation.”

Canstar teamed up with Terry Ryder of Ryder Research Resources, publisher of the Hotspotting reports, to determine which suburbs and towns would likely see the property boom continue, or explode.

“All roads don’t lead to Queensland, but for real estate consumers, a lot of them do,” Mr Ryder said in the report.

“The population data shows that Queensland is the nation’s number one beneficiary of interstate migration by a considerable margin.

“In simple terms, lots of people are vacating Sydney and Melbourne and many of them are heading north.”

Ryder Research Resources managing director Terry Ryder.

Mr Ryder said the Gold Coast market was “pumping strongly”, and the Sunshine Coast had been in a strong growth phase for at least three years, but the appeal of Queensland real estate was extending further out to Cairns, Townsville, the Whitsundays, Mackay, Rockhampton and nearby Yeppoon, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg and neighbouring Bargara.

“They all offer lifestyle at prices that big city residents find highly appealing,” he said.

“The important inland city of Toowoomba is attracting intense focus, as are hill change areas inland from the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.”

But Mr Ryder said there were locations with rising buyer demand right across the state, from mining towns and agricultural communities to regional cities on the coast.

“Locations that excelled last year may not be the market leaders in the year ahead,” he said. “Places with a poor track record can evolve into the outperformers of the future.”

Ray White’s Julie Mahoney will take 4 Pingel Court, a “treehouse” like home in Cranbrook, Townsville, to auction on Monday.

It is all about lifestyle at this Cranbrook home, which only has a fold up movie screen and no TV.

She said there had already been pre-auction offers, mostly from people local to the region.

“Townsville has seen growth (during the property boom) but that’s been off a low base,” she said.

“We are now seeing demand like we did back in the peak, and that is also coming from outside of the region.

“There are some interstate families moving here for lifestyle, but we are also seeing more buyers from the southeast who are cashing out to interstate buyers and moving for lifestyle and work, and to have some cash in the bank.

“I also think that we aren’t seeing the same number of people leaving Townsville so stock levels are tight.

“They can see that affordability in the southeast has gotten ridiculous so they are staying put.”

On the booming Sunshine Coast, McGrath Buderim agent Matt Diesel recently sold a modern house with ocean views at Little Mountain, one of the top 10 Queensland suburbs to watch in 2022, for $1.67 million.

“It is not surprising given the value for money in Little Mountain,” he said.

“A lot of the peripheral areas on the Sunsine Coast are catching up, with people realising there is a lot more services in those areas now, and they are still close to the beach lifestyle.”

Mr Diesel said interstate buyer interest was “picking up again” on the back of border reopening announcements, and as more people were “double vaxxed”.

This Little Mountain house recently sold for $1.67 million

In the Toowoomba region, Century 21 Marsden Realty principal Sam Marsden said it was an exciting time for Queensland’s biggest inland city.

“There is a flood of people looking to escape from interstate and a lot of people are coming from the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, either priced out by southern buyers or looking for that treechange,” he said.

“There is that ripple effect (of buyers) and the net migration (into Queensland) is massive.

“It is tough for buyers, it’s a sellers market right now, but I will still be here when it swings back around again.”

Renowned for its annual Carnival of Flowers, Toowoomba is attracting buyers looking for a treechange and an affordable lifestyle. Picture David Clark

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REGIONAL QUEENSLAND’S TOP 10 RISING STARS

SOUTHPORT: Sales activity in Southport, a suburb positively impacted by major infrastructure, has more than doubled in the past 12 months and the rate of price growth is accelerating. Very low vacancies also mean rents are rising strongly here.

PARADISE POINT: The Broadwater suburb of Paradise Point is also attracting rising buyer demand and prices have taken off notably in the most recent quarter, with the median house price reaching $1,105,000.

BURLEIGH WATERS: The canal suburb of Burleigh Waters has also seen a price explosion recently, with its median approaching $1,000,000, thanks to rising buying demand, against

a backdrop of very low vacancies and strongly rising rentals.

LITTLE MOUNTAIN: The Sunshine Coast has been one of the nation’s growth markets in the past two to three years and continues to attract strong buyer demand. Little Mountain (median price $665,000) is well-situated to benefit from new infrastructure, notably the multibillion-dollar medical precinct and has very low vacancies and strongly rising rents. Sales activity is up and prices continue to rise.

GYMPIE: A short drive up the motorway from the Sunshine Coast, the regional city of Gympie has been thriving based on its relative affordability and the upgrade to those otorway

links. Sales levels have doubled in the past year and the rate of price growth is increasing. Vacancies are very low and rents are rising in Gympie.

CENTENARY HEIGHTS: There is rising interest in the important inland city of Toowoomba, where new transport infrastructure is lifting its economic importance. Sales activity in suburbs like

Centenary Heights (median price $395,000) has doubled in the past year and prices are starting to respond, while low vacancies are causing rents to rise.

NEWTOWN: The suburb of Newtown is close to Toowoomba’s inner city infrastructure and is attracting strong demand from tenants and buyers. The typical rental yield is 5.3% and a low

vacancy rate. With a median house price of just $315,000, prices can only rise.

HERVEY BAY: Hervey Bay is a natural beneficiary of the ‘Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle’ trend and sales activity has turned sharply upwards in 2021. Towards the upper end of this

market, there is rising buyer demand in Dundowran Beach and prices are responding.

BUNDABERG EAST: The Bundaberg region is also attracting lifestyle buyers seeking attractive prices. This area is attracting significant government investment, including a new $1.5 billion hospital, and the city has very low vacancies and rising rents. With sales activity taking off, there is inevitable pressure on prices in suburbs like Bundaberg East, where the median house price remains below $300,000, for now.

NORMAN GARDENS: Further north, a big infrastructure spend is helping to generate revival in the Rockhampton market, where mainstream houses are still in the $200,000s. Low vacancies, rising rents and increasing demand from buyers seeking affordability complete an equation where prices must rise, including in more up-market suburbs like Norman Gardens (median price $410,000).

(Source: Canstar’s Australian Property Market Report 2022, Powered by Hotspotting by Ryder)

***The full Rising Stars report can be viewed here.