‘World War III’: US accused of stoking major escalation in war between Russia and Ukraine

Months ago, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin identified a glaring “red line” for the West. Joe Biden has decided to cross it.

Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin identified an “unacceptable red line”.

He said any use, by Ukraine, of Western-supplied missiles to strike deep into Russia would constitute a “direct involvement of NATO countries” in the war.

Ironic, perhaps, for the man who started said war in the first place to complain about escalation, but here we are. The United States this week authorised Ukraine to use long-range weaponry it had supplied to fire back at Russia, and it proceeded to do exactly that.

The move has not merely raised tensions in the region, but stoked worries in the broader world that the war in Ukraine could spiral into a larger conflict. The words “World War III” have been uttered more than once.

Vladimir Putin. Picture: Vyacheslav Prokofyev/AFP

Before Ukraine fired off its first long-range missiles, but after US President Joe Biden approved their use, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine. Putin personally approved the policy’s new language, which says Russia can consider using nuclear weapons in response to an attack with conventional missiles, if that attack is supported by a nuclear power.

The new doctrine also spells out that aggression against Russia by any member state of a coalition, such as the NATO alliance, would be attributable to the entire coalition. This means that, in theory, America’s decision to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles would be considered an act of aggression by all of NATO.

We’re using the word “aggression” loosely here, of course, given Russia started the war in Ukraine and NATO powers are merely seeking to help the country defend itself.

Joe Biden. Picture: Mauro Pimentel/AFP

Military experts have suggested Russia’s threatening use of language is largely “performative”, and Putin is unlikely to act on it.

“They have very carefully restricted the war to the boundaries of Ukraine,” defence analyst Tim Ripley told Sky News UK.

“So why would they escalate the war? By not escalating the war and not bringing in NATO, they have baked in their supremacy over the Ukrainians.

“If they had to fight NATO at the same time with the Ukrainians, the dynamics would be changed.

“At the moment, they have more men, more tanks, more planes, more missiles, more everything against Ukrainians.

“But if they had to factor in NATO as well, they would be outnumbered. So it’s really not in their interests to expand this war in a way that brings in NATO openly.”

Mr Ripley said the actual red line for Russia was not the use of long-range missiles but the prospect of NATO troops fighting on the ground in Ukraine. Thus far, that has not even been discussed as an option by the US or other leading NATO members.

Volodymyr Zelensky. Picture: Attila Kisbendek/AFP

Still, spokespeople for the Kremlin have been lashing out with renewed vigour in recent days.

Maria Butina, a Russian politician, accused the Biden administration of “trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power”. She was alluding, there, to the election of Donald Trump, who will take office in January.

“I have a great hope that Trump will overcome this decision, if it has been made, because they are seriously risking the start of World War III, which is not in anybody’s interest,” Ms Butina said.

Her remarks were echoed by official Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said Mr Biden was trying to escalate the conflict.

People in Mr Trump’s orbit have also been warning about the prospect of World War III. Here, for example, is a social media post from his eldest son Donald Jr.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War III going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” said Don Jr.

“Gotta lock in those trillions! Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”

Donald Trump. Picture: Allison Robbert/AFP

David Sacks, a politically active entrepreneur and longtime critic of the West giving aid to Ukraine, urged the world to seek an “easy” off ramp from the conflict.

“For the sake of our children and the entire world, we cannot fatalistically accept that WWIII is inevitable or has already begun,” Mr Sacks said.

“I find that view bizarre, even psychopathic. In fact, diplomatic off ramps exist, and they are easy to find.”

During a speech at the Republican National Convention earlier this year, Mr Sacks suggested the US had “provoked” Russia to invade Ukraine.

In his post on social media, he did not explain what said off ramps might be. One imagines they would involve Ukraine striking a deal with Putin, and perhaps agreeing to cede territory already occupied by Russia.

That’s not something the Ukrainians would be eager to do.

Mr Trump himself repeatedly suggested, during the US presidential campaign, that he would be able to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours upon taking power. At no point did he tell us how he’d accomplish such a feat.

‘New phase’ of the war

Ukraine’s long-range strike against Russia on Tuesday reportedly hit the Bryansk region, which lies a fair distance above the northern Ukrainian border. It came on the one-thousandth day of the war.

“We will be taking this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia. And we will react accordingly,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press conference at the G20 summit in Brazil.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused G20 leaders of failing to act over Putin’s nuclear threats, saying the Russian leader had no interest in peace. He later warned that his country would lose the war if the United States decided to cut its military aid.

“If they cut, we will – I think we will lose,” Mr Zelensky said in an interview with US network Fox News.

“We will fight. We have our production, but it’s not enough to prevail.”

Washington this week said it had cleared Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against military targets inside Russia – a longstanding Ukrainian request that the US had long resisted.

The Washington Post, citing two unnamed officials, on Tuesday reported Mr Biden had also authorised the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine, a step that will bolster its ability to defend itself against advancing Russian troops, but has drawn criticism from arms control groups.

Meanwhile NATO chief Mark Rutte warned that Putin must not be allowed to prevail.

“Why is this so crucial, that Putin will not get his way? Because you will have an emboldened Russia on our border, and I’m absolutely convinced it will not stop there,” he told reporters in Brussels.

At the United Nations, around 50 member states reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and demanded Russia withdraw its troops.

– with AFP

Originally published as ‘World War III’: US accused of stoking major escalation in war between Russia and Ukraine