One year on from what was the biggest invasion since WWII, more than 300,000 soldiers and 40,000 civilians have been killed, in a conflict that has touched every corner of the planet and threatens to spiral into a full blown world war.

The conflict appears a long way from ending with observers suggesting only the West and its dwindling armaments are pushing Ukraine to a peace settlement.

In the meantime, the UN has recorded the human misery, atrocities and displacement of more than 13 million Ukraines continues.

Australian National University Centre for European Studies Research Fellow Dr Sonia Mycak said it could have all been different had the West reacted in 2014 when President Vladimir Putin first began annexing Ukraine territory such as Donetsk and Crimea.

“Had there been some real reaction then by the West we may not have found ourselves where we are now frankly, and even a year ago if Ukraine had given the type of weapons they are only now talking about like fighter jets and if they had come in spades and sooner we might not have seen the sort of protraction that we see now,” she said.

“I believe what Putin is hoping for is to protract the battle so that public opinion in the West may begin to turn away from assisting Ukraine or the government might stop assisting. That is what he is hoping for but I cant see that happen … should Putin be victorious the precedence would be dangerous in the sense the message sent to large aggressive powers that they can achieve a change of border by doing that.”

Sydney University Professor Emeritus Graeme Gill agreed both nations were in it for the long haul but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was the only one subject to constraints of his Western backers.

“When push comes to shove I think what will happen is the West will put pressure on Zelenskyy to negotiate simply because the West I suspect cannot sustain the coalition it has had for the last 12 months ad infinitum into the future,” the Russian political expert said.

“It’s always been an East-West thing in large part because its about NATO expansion rather than the situation of Ukraine itself but clearly neither side is going to want to back down and ultimately there is going to have to be a negotiation because chances are neither side is going to be able to win the decisive victories that will lead to one side (being) able to impose a peace on the other.”

Analyst Liana Fix from the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations said the longer the war goes on the more EU nations will struggle to explain it to fatigued voters.

“I think the most likely scenario is Ukrainian gains leading to ‘a good enough’ victory, with continuous fighting in some territories,” she said citing Crimea.

The Russian president has been forced to make numerous humiliating changes to strategy and objectives in the war as Western nations rallied to support Ukraine with more than $120 billion worth of munitions and supplies, excluding the US fourth multi-billion dollar aid package offer.

Australia has provided Ukraine with about $655 million in support, including more than $475 million in military assistance including howitzer canons, Bushmaster and M113 combat vehicles, missiles and 70 ADF trainers to skill up Ukraine volunteer fighters.

President Putin announced Russia’s dawn invasion a year ago in a televised address in which he claimed “a special military operation” was underway to “de-Nazify” the Ukraine government and rescue pro-Russian territories in eastern Ukraine where militia groups had been fighting for independence since 2014.

There have been many harrowing scenes during the conflict including the battle for Mariupol which saw hundreds of civilians killed and atrocities in Bucha.

Up to 70,000 suspected war crimes have been recorded by Ukrainian prosecutors by Russian forced engaging in torture and mass executions, indiscriminate bombings of towns and cities and their hospitals and infrastructure and tens of thousands of Ukraines including orphaned children reportedly sent to “re-education camps” inside Russia.

The international Physicians for Human Rights recorded more than 700 attacks on the medical profession including 292 attacks that damaged or destroyed 218 hospitals, 62 health care workers killed and 181 assaults on other medical infrastructure like blood centres.

Ukraine’s resistance was highlighted in the first week when Russian troops captured Snake Island on the Black Sea, with the small Ukrainian contingent when ordered by the giant Russian warship Moskva to surrender infamous cabled the message “Russian warship: go f**k yourself”.

By September last year the Kremlin co-ordinated “referendums” in four Ukraine territories before declaring Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia formally annexed and now territory under their control. This month some of the fiercest fighting was held in the eastern city Bakhmut as Russia begins a spring offensive and secures one fifth of the country.

“The year ahead is decisive but together Ukrainians will defend not only themselves, but the whole world and secure peace, freedom and justice,” Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations co-chair Stefan Romaniw said.