Iran move that would send global oil prices soaring

One move by Iran in retaliation for US air strikes on three nuclear sites could send global oil prices flying.

The Middle East crisis has escalated with Iran’s parliament greenlighting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping channel which carries one-fifth of global oil output.

The move, which could prevent an estimated $1 billion in oil shipments a day, is expected to see oil prices skyrocket.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had urged China to persuade Iran to not shut down the vital channel after Washington carried out strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran.

“That would be a suicidal move on their part, because I think the whole world would come against them if they did that,” Mr Rubio told CBS.

A. Horowitz, a geopolitics and security analyst, had warned closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking US assets, or even attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, which hosts several US military bases were all options Iran could consider as retaliation.

Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz could impact the world economy.

“None of those are good options that achieve anything - this is mostly about saving face,” he posted on X.

“The risks, on the other hand, are great.”

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is expected to make a final decision on whether to shut the channel on Sunday local time.

HOW US ‘TOTALLY OBLITERATED’ IRAN’S NUKE FACILITIES

When the B-2 stealth bombers took off from Whiteman Air Base in Missouri on Friday night, only a few people knew they were about to make history.

A squadron of six B-2 bombers were loaded with 13.5 ton bunker busting bombs that had never been used before.

The weapons, officially known as GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), weigh as much as seven Toyota Hilux utes.

Other than nuclear weapons, they are the most deadly bomb in the world.

The 12 pilots – two for each aircraft – were given secret orders to fly to Iran.

At the same time, another squadron of refuelling aircraft took off from Oklahoma.

B-2 stealth bombers dropped 13.5 ton bunker busting bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant.

However, the world was not watching those flights.

They were instead tricked by a ruse – another set of B-2 bombers, the only aircraft capable of carrying the massive GBU-57 weapons, had taken off and were headed for Guam, a US-base off the coast of the Philippines, or Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK base, 4,700km south of Iran.

News websites and television stations around the world reported those B-2 bombers flight details, which were available on public aircraft tracking websites.

Headlines announced that the B-2s were being moved to one of the air bases in preparation for United States president Donald Trump’s telegraphed decision to make a call on a strike within two weeks.

That timeline was a ruse too.

While the world, and the Iranian defence analysts were focused on the decoy flights, the six B-2 bombers were making a flight to Iran.

For 37 hours, according to intelligence officials, the B-2s made a path to the hidden mountainside nuclear enrichment plant at Fordow, about 127km south of Tehran.

The B-2s have a range of about 9,500km, just shy of the 11,000km direct route to Iran

They needed to refuel mid-air, supported by those jets that took off from Oklahoma, at least once.

The B-2s would have been refuelled mid-air. Picture: US Department of Defense / AFP

The Massive Ordnance Penetrator sits in a bomb bay of the B-2 weapons load trainer. Picture: US Air Force/AFP

However, it’s likely that they were refuelled several times as they flew a zigzag, or circuitous path, mainly over oceans to hide from any radars and maintain their element of surprise.

The orders were clear – destroy Iran’s nuclear program and stop them from making an atomic bomb that could obliterate its enemy Israel, which it has for decades wanted to wipe off the map.

As those 12 pilots were making their way to Iran, the US Navy was manoeuvring its forces into place.

Ohio-class nuclear powered submarines based in waters likely south of Iran were ready to fire 30 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles at Natanz and another Iranian nuclear site at Isfahan.

An aerial image of theIsfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. It was destroyed by the US in a raid on June 22. Picture: Maxar Technologies / AFP

Isfahan nuclear power plant, pictured, was hit by US weapons. Picture: AFP

Mr Trump was yet to make the final call on the attack while his pilots and submariners were locking and loading their deadly payloads.

He was sitting in his private club in New Jersey, weighing up whether to make the bold move to strike Iran directly and risk tangling the United States in its third war in the Middle East in less than a generation.

Mr Trump has been recently mocked with the phrase TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – after his tariff backdowns gave the final approval.

This situation was different, with Mr Trump potentially thinking that Israel’s attacks on Iran had already made its defences so weak, that this was the right time to strike.

From the club, he gave the go ahead.

“The goal was to create a situation when everyone wasn’t expecting it,” a senior administration official told the Wall Street Journal.

US President Donald Trump it in the Situation Room at the White House in Washington as the B-2 bombers unleashed fury above the Fordow nuclear plant. Picture: The White House via X

On balance, that plan worked.

Mr Trump then relocated to The Situation Room where he received updates of the attacks.

Wearing his trademark bright red Make America Great Again cap, Mr Trump watched on as the US Air Force dropped their unprecedented payloads.

The B-2 bombers unleashed fury from 12km above the Fordow nuclear plant, which was suspected of being the main base for Iran’s atomic bomb operations.

The first aircraft opened its bomb bay and dropped the precision missile, which was remotely redirected by changes to the direction of its tailfins controlled via satellites.

Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Situation Room. Picture: The White House via X

CIA Director John Ratcliffe, in foreground seated, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, left, speaks with national security adviser Andy Baker with White House counsel David Warrington seated in background in the Situation Room. Picture: The White House via X

For 49.5 seconds, Mr Trump, and his aides waited, watching the progress from the Situation Room as the bunker busting bomb dropped towards the mountainside nuclear plant.

Then the massive weapon struck.

All 13.5 tons burrowing its way into the rock as far as possible before a delayed fuse detonated the 2.5 tons of explosive inside.

That force was propelled forward, unlike traditional bombs which spread horizontally, to make as much damage, as deep as possible.

And then a few seconds later, a second bomb from the same B-2 jet hit the exact same location, military experts suggest, further driving into the rock and shattering the underground bunkers protecting Iran’s deadly nuclear factory.

Sources claim that the other five B-2 bombers may have struck different parts of the mountain to weaken the structure further.

However, each bomb would have rocked the mountain, sending kinetic energy deeper and deeper through the layers of rock and concrete that Iran had hoped would keep its nuclear threat safe.

At the same time as those bunker busting bombs were exploding, the US Navy was also thrown into action.

The Tomahawk missiles flew, one by one, into the nuclear plants at Natanz and Isfahan.

Mr Trump said those names were well known. Now they are etched in history.

He called the attack “a spectacular military success” and claimed Iran’s nuclear sites were “completely and totally obliterated.”

The full extent, or success, of the attacks, however, remains unknown until independent observers from the International Atomic Energy Agency can take a look themselves.

That’s unlikely to happen any time soon as Iran threatens to retaliate against Israel and the United States.

The attack was not without risk, it could have sparked a new Chernobyl if there was a radiation leak.

The IAEA reported on Sunday night that there were no heightened levels of radiation near the Iranian nuclear sites.

That may be a sign that the design of the GBU-57s were effective.

Theoretically, those bombs would create a cave in after they detonated, effectively sealing in, or entombing the nuclear site.

The full details of the planning for the operation have not yet been revealed.

If they are ever disclosed, they may point to when the real ground zero of the attack.

An overview of the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, south of Tehran. It was destroyed by US bunker bombers on June 22. Picture: Maxar Technologies / AFP

Former US president Barack Obama revealed that Iran had been developing its nuclear capabilities in 2009 when he declassified secret intelligence about Fordow.

The site had been developed in secret since 2006.

Iranian leadership claimed that its nuclear program was only ever for peaceful reasons, to make clean electricity.

They argued that it was buried in the side of a mountain because no-one would believe that they had peaceful intentions.

They were right on that count.

Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo said on Sky News last week that when he saw that intelligence in 2009 he knew that one day it would have to be attacked.

The US Air Force began developing the GBU-57s as a direct result of that intelligence.

Schematics released by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018 showed a network of tunnels and halls.

The Israeli security agency Mossad will now be looking for updated images, which they hope will show that Mr Trump’s assessment was correct.

It remains to be seen if the calculation that the strikes have weakened Iran’s ability to retaliate against United States interests were right.

Originally published as Iran move that would send global oil prices soaring