Next steps after Joe Biden drops out of White House Race

By quitting the US presidential race, Joe Biden has thrown the Democratic Party into chaos. Here’s what could happen.

Vice President Kamala Harris is on the brink of being the Democratic candidate for November’s US election, despite failing to secure an immediate endorsement from Barack Obama.

In the wake of President Joe Biden’s stunning decision to drop out of the race, the former president pushed for “a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges” ahead of the party’s convention in Chicago in a month.

Democratic heavyweight Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker who helped orchestrate the rebellion against Mr Biden, also declined to endorse Ms Harris and privately lobbied for a competitive process.

And while a series of prospective candidates rowed in behind the Vice President, others including Illinois governor JB Pritzker and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer declined to rule out challenging her for the nomination, even after Mr Biden offered her his full support.

Top Democratic strategists said the likely path forward was that the party would rally around Ms Harris, avoiding a bruising open convention that had not been seen since 1968.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama’s campaign strategist, praised her “shock-and-awe” effort to ensure “a lot of the big dominos” in the party fell her way.

“Hard to see any other outcome here than her nomination,” he said.

But the Vice President could still face a challenge, with independent West Virginia senator Joe Manchin also considering re-registering as a Democrat and mounting his own campaign.

Party chiefs had been hoping to confirm their candidate in a virtual roll call early next month, with Ms Harris’s allies mounting a full-court press on key Democratic figures in a bid to deter any competitors from leaping into the race.

Vice President Kamala Harris faces huge challenges. Picture: AFP

The New York Times reported Mr Obama wanted to remain neutral, as he did during the 2020 primary battle that resulted in Mr Biden’s ascension to the White House, and that he would “help unite the party once we have a nominee”.

Mr Biden had become the party’s presumptive nominee after securing the support of nearly all the 3979 delegates to the convention during a series of nationwide primary elections earlier this year, during which he faced no serious challengers.

His endorsement of Ms Harris could encourage them to shift their support to her, although his decision to drop out essentially turns them into free agents at the convention, where she would need a majority of delegates if she faced off against other prospective nominees.

Joe Biden’s decision hs thrown the Democratic party in unchartered waters. Picture: AFP

Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison said: “The work that we must do now, while unprecedented, is clear.”

“In the coming days, the party will undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward as a united Democratic Party with a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in November,” he said.

“This process will be governed by established rules and procedures of the party. Our delegates are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people.”

Another complicating factor is money, with Republicans plotting a legal challenge to block the Biden campaign transferring the $US96m it had in the bank at the end of June to the party’s new nominee.

Campaign finance experts said they expected Ms Harris could inherit those donations, given she was already on the ticket, but that it could be more complicated for another candidate.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN AT THE CONVENTION?

The Democratic National Convention is due to start on August 19 in Chicago.

Harris is expected to officially announce her candidacy after Biden addresses the nation.

If other alternative candidates emerge over the next few days, the more than 4000 party delegates coming to the convention, as well as the hundreds of so-called “super delegates” (senior party members) will be free to vote for the candidate of their choosing.

Dr Jared Mondschein from the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney has stated that an open contest at the Convention would be “a bit messy”, with “lots of yelling and horse trading, and lots of negotiations” on the floor of the convention itself.

Under party rules, a candidate needs to get more votes than all other candidates combined – a tough ask which would likely see multiple rounds of voting.

US President Joe Biden and US Vice President Kamala Harris walk down the West Wing Colonnade, July 2021. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

In an influential opinion piece for the New York Times earlier this month, the actor and Democratic supporter George Clooney suggested a vote at the convention would be messy, but “it would enliven our party and wake up voters who, long before the June debate, had already checked out.”

He also urged any potential candidates not to attack one another in the style of typical party primary.

WHAT HAPPENS TO MONEY THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN RAISED?

Sources have suggested that the donations that had already been pledged for Joe Biden’s candidacy could be subject to disputes, as it would not necessarily be clear that donors would give the green light to the money going to other candidates.

But if Harris does win the nomination, this might be simpler as she was already on the ticket.

If another candidate ends up being the nominee, things could be trickier.

Some have suggested that Biden might direct his campaign to transfer all donated money to the Democratic National Committee, for them to disperse to a new campaign team. But legally, the Biden campaign would need to settle any debts first.

Other funds that are held by individual Political Action Committees and not Biden’s campaign, would be free to do as they wish with the money they have raised.

WHO COULD THE DEMOCRATS TURN TO?

US Vice President Kamala Harris. Picture: Jim Watson/AFP

Kamala Harris

Current Vice-President. Her nomination would be in some ways the most simple, given she’s already on the ticket and is the beneficiary of the same “donation stream,” as Biden.

Gavin Newsom

The California governor, who Democratic pundits say could stand-in for Biden.

Gretchen Whitmer

The two-term governor of Michigan and Biden backer. More likely to run for president in 2028.

Pete Buttigieg

Ran for president in 2020. Current Transportation Secretary.

Josh Shapiro

First-term governor of Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state.

JB Pritzker

Heir to the Hyatt hotel chain and Illinois Governor. Called Trump a “liar” after the debate.

Wes Moore

Governor of Maryland. Prominently name-checked as an interesting contender in a George Clooney opinion piece earlier this month.

Andy Beshear

Governor of Kentucky. Also name-checked by George Clooney this month.

Michelle Obama

The only person who could beat Trump, according to a recent Reuters IPSOS poll. She has previously ruled out running.

Originally published as Next steps after Joe Biden drops out of White House Race