How Gaza could become ‘the new Iraq’

The world needs to quickly understand the catastrophic mistakes of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, if another multi-generational disaster is to be avoided in the Israel, Hamas conflict.

The world risked creating “another Iraq” in Gaza with Hamas’ bloody assault on Israel intended to provoke a cascading conflict to feed their image for generations to come.

World-renowned extremism expert Professor Greg Barton has warned global actors to construct a political solution to the conflict with military might not likely to resolve the broader issue.

He said Hamas’ October 7 unprecedented slaughter had to be condemned in every way but the West should not overlook mistakes made during the post-Saddam Hussein era.

He said after the 2003 Iraq invasion was the 2004 “de-Ba’athification” of tyrant Saddam’s ruling Ba’ath party.

US Marines carry a portrait of toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein at the Saddam International Airport, Baghdad, in 2003. Twenty years after the US-led invasion of Iraq toppled Hussein, the oil-rich country remains deeply scarred by the conflict and, while closer to the United States, far from the liberal democracy Washington had envisioned. Picture: Romeo Gacad/AFP

He said most of the middle class technocrats and professionals in Iraq under Saddam had to sign up as members of his party to function. There was no choice, so top military men, doctors in hospitals, police, bosses of schools, power and sewerage works all had to be members yet were removed with their names on the Ba’ath list.

“What that led to was a vacuum and people who went home to families with no money and no options, many of whom ended up getting drawn into insurgencies,” Prof Barton, from Deakin University, said.

Professor Greg Barton at Deakin University. Picture: Andrew Tauber

“So that was exactly the wrong response, exactly what you didn’t need … it wasn’t well thought through.

“There’s no argument with the fact that Hamas can’t play a role in the future but it will be very easy to extend it and say anyone associated with Hamas has been compromised, and the current sort of polarised language around the world … means you’re missing out on really understanding the challenge you’ve got and what you want to fix.

“It means that there are people who have been historically involved in Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip who aren’t morally culpable, who are not compromised in the way that a simplistic analysis might suggest and are essential to future administration.”

A grab from a video posted on October 9, 2023, shows an armed Palestinian militant leading a man during the Supernova music festival, where Hamas gunmen killed about 250 people. It was intended to provoke a response from Israel. Picture: Anonymous/AFP

People try to extinguish burning cars following a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip in Ashkelon, southern Israel, on October 7. Picture: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP

Prof Barton said al-Qaeda was not a very powerful or significant force prior to the 9/11 attack and, while its leadership was destroyed in ensuing conflict, it continued to grow and morph into Islamic State.

“It is true Hamas is different to a group like al-Qaeda or Islamic States but it was using the same tactics on October 7, it wanted to provoke a response,” he said.

“So Israel has given it that response and, of course, the outrage and pain of October 7 is understandable and has to be condemned in every way, but I think what we have to stop and think now about what can we achieve with military means, particularly in making a response, and how do we break the cycle that feeds what is a social movement and a set of ideas.”

Originally published as How Gaza could become ‘the new Iraq’