Donald Trump indictment: What’s next for 2024 presidential contender

The news that Donald Trump will face charges over hush money paid to a porn actress puts the US in unprecedented territory. See what happens next.

It is not surprising that of all 45 American presidents, Donald Trump is the first to be hit with criminal charges.

He sailed close to the wind for decades before descending down a gold escalator in the New York skyscraper bearing his name in 2015 to announce his campaign for the White House.

But any air of inevitability around his indictment should not diminish the history of this moment. A president is being charged with a crime. And not just any president – a president who is again running for the world’s most powerful office.

Anyone who tells you they know what will happen next probably has a bridge to sell you over a picturesque harbour in Sydney. Both in the courts and in the campaign, the US is now in genuinely unprecedented territory, as it has been for most of Trump’s political career.

The case against him is weak, so much so that it became known as the “zombie case” before Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg put it before a grand jury in January.

While the exact charges remain under wraps, the expectation is that Trump will be accused of falsifying business records to cover up hush money paid to a porn star in the days before the 2016 presidential election.

Bragg could upgrade this to a felony by alleging it constituted a campaign finance violation, a move that would bring jail time into play, although nonviolent first-time offenders rarely end up behind bars.

State and federal prosecutors have previously passed on taking it to court, with legal experts saying it represents a relatively untested charge.

Then again, in Trump’s left-leaning hometown of New York City, it is not hard to imagine finding 12 jurors willing to convict him.

For now, what is certain is that Trump will be arrested next week, fingerprinted and photographed and maybe even handcuffed. Reports differ on how he feels about this – some allies say he is anxious, having fought to avoid such a moment throughout his adult life, while others say he wants a public “perp walk” to fuel his 2024 campaign.

Adult-film actress Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels with her lawyer Michael Avenatti. Picture: AFP

Indeed, barely 90 minutes after word of the indictment leaked, the Trump campaign was spamming supporters seeking donations to help “write the next great chapter of American history”.

When Trump announced his third presidential run in November, he was at the weakest point. While his base within the Republican Party remained strong, donors and party leaders wanted to move on from a candidate who had not won since his first race.

For anyone else, a criminal indictment – and all the legal dramas that will flow from it over the coming months – would be the final nail in the coffin.

But not for Trump. Since he foreshadowed his arrest a fortnight ago, he doubled his lead among Republican primary voters over Ron DeSantis, with a Fox News survey putting him at 54 per cent and the Florida Governor at 24 per cent.

And the hush money case may only be the start of Trump’s pre-election court battles. He is facing far more serious charges over his efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat and incite the January 6 Capitol riot, as well as his handling of classified documents since leaving office.

For Democrats, the fear in Bragg prosecuting his relatively minor case first is that if it falls over, that may discredit such future indictments.

Either way, Trump will undoubtedly paint them as part of what he claims is an orchestrated witch hunt to keep him out of power.

The former president will embrace the fight.

That’s how he won in 2016, by fighting for tens of millions of Americans who felt like the political elites were no longer fighting for them.

The difference this time is that Trump is really only fighting for himself.

Originally published as Donald Trump indictment: What’s next for 2024 presidential contender