Two-party preferred swing of four per cent suggests Dutton’s plan is working, but not enough to get him where he needs to be

Detractors of Liberal leader Peter Dutton will say the Labor win in Dunkley shows his strategy of chasing outer suburban and regional voters isn’t going to be enough to get him to the Lodge.

Victoria is still Victoria. Despite all the hype in the past few days that the Liberal Party might come home with a wet sail the swing is likely to end up being bang on average and the minimum required to meet expectations: Four per cent.

The Liberals would be disappointed they couldn’t crack a primary of 40 per cent.

Labor folk should be worried there were booths in working class areas of the seat where there were double-digit swings to the Liberals.

The brains behind the right-wing activist group Advance were not hiding their disappointment at what their $250,000 had bought them.

Peter Dutton with Nathan Conroy. Picture: David Crosling

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese greets Labor Party volunteers at Derinya Primary School in Frankston South, on polling day for the Federal seat of Dunkley. Picture: Ian Currie

“Those working class Australians are not quite there yet on the Liberal Party,” one mused.

Those swings suggest Advance had some impact.

But expect moderate Liberals to say all Advance achieved was to bring over Palmer and Hanson voters to the Liberal Party.

Which isn’t that much of an achievement given neither of those parties were running.

The Greens too had a shocker, which was unsurprising since according to most witnesses on Saturday they had been completely absent from booths.

Peter Dutton’s detractors will say this result shows his strategy of chasing outer suburban and regional voters isn’t going to be enough to get him to the Lodge.

But a two-party preferred swing of four per cent suggests the strategy is working but not enough to get him where he needs to be.

But actually a good deal of that swing has come from the richer, Tealier parts of the electorate in one booth by more than 13 per cent.

Labor spent a lot of time in its ads targeting Dutton in an attempt to make him as toxic as Scott Morrison.

It didn’t work.

Two years after voters gave Morrison the flick, a decent chunk of them have come back to the Liberal Party.

Indeed the results in Tealy bits of this seat are so good it is certain to spark an internal debate about whether or not Dutton should rethink his strategy of leaving Teal land until the election after next.

Originally published as Two-party preferred swing of four per cent suggests Dutton’s plan is working, but not enough to get him where he needs to be