Shannon Deery: Senior Victorian Labor figures say it’s all over for Jacinta Allan

After 18 months in the top job most voters have decided they don’t like what Jacinta Allan is selling.

It’s all over.

That’s the increasingly common view within the highest levels of Victorian Labor when asked about Jacinta Allan’s leadership.

And while they’re more circumspect about voicing the same opinion, the view is shared among a growing number of people within government too.

What else is shared is a confusion about precisely why Allan has failed to resonate with Victorians.

But the numbers don’t lie.

At -35 Allan’s approval rating is the worst in the country and more than twice as bad as Peter Dutton’s. To put that number into context Dominic Perrottet was net positive before he lost the NSW election, Scott Morrison was -27 before he lost the keys to the Lodge and Steven Miles was -11 before losing in Queensland.

Across all ages, genders, religions, education level, employment status and household income Allan is in negative territory.

Jacinta Allan has failed to resonate with Victorians. Picture: David Crosling

Only among Labor and Greens voters does she creep into positive figures.

There is a reason Allan is featured so prominently alongside Anthony Albanese in the Coalition’s federal election attack ads.

Both Victorian Labor, and Allan, are toxic.

Most worrying for Allan should be that the latest polling numbers aren’t an aberration, they are a deep baked trend.

After 18 months in the top job voters have decided they, almost universally, don’t like what she’s selling.

And she’s hampered by her closeness to Daniel Andrews, her handling of the Commonwealth Games mess and years of being responsible for major project cost blowouts.

As Premier Allan has made housing attainability a key plank of her premiership, but still voters backed Brad Battin’s Coalition to manage the issue better.

Allan is featured prominently alongside Anthony Albanese in the Coalition’s federal election attack ads. Picture: Jason Edwards

The same goes for energy policies, infrastructure, literacy and numeracy standards in public schools, cost of living, hospital waiting lists and law and order.

Just 27 per cent of voters believe the Allan government has the right focus and priorities, while 52 per cent said they didn’t.

Support for the $34.5bn Suburban Rail Loop has plummeted, especially in the eastern suburbs where it should be of most benefit.

Much of the drop in support for Allan and her government will be tied to her pet project which she has stubbornly refused to reprioritise in any way.

She is adamant that Melbourne can’t live without the SRL.

It is her unwavering self belief that is likely to impede any plans Labor powerbrokers might have of trying to force Allan to resign, even amid disastrous polling.

There is a view among Allan and some of her closest allies that the opening of the Metro Tunnel later this year will be a boon for the government. That once opened voters will forget the cost blowouts and marvel at the transformational piece of infrastructure such that their current dissatisfaction with the government is forgotten.

Allan has been hampered by her closeness to Daniel Andrews. Picture: David Geraghty

Wishful thinking, perhaps. Allan could rightfully argue that she was handed a mess to clean up and is slowly doing that.

She could point to recent changes to bail and machete laws which polling shows were broadly popular and that her policy initiatives can hit the mark.

And she could point to the fact the Coalition’s primary vote dropped two points since Brad Battin took the reigns.

His approval rating might be much higher than hers, at plus 2, but 30 per cent of voters had no idea who he was.

Concern is growing inside senior Liberal ranks about a lack of policy articulation coming out of the Opposition Leader’s office.

Allan is not one for quitting, and if she digs her heels she will scupper plans of a smooth leadership transition.

For months now Labor has been trailing the Coalition 49 to 51 on a two party preferred basis.

With the Coalition needing to win 16 seats to form government, Labor could still crawl over the line on those numbers.

But it would take an absolute battering and could lose a dozen or more seats in doing so.

Which is why 18 months out from the election risk averse powerbrokers want to take the gamble out of a historic fourth term.

They know time to make a change successfully is running out. Whoever comes next needs at least a year and probably more to restore the bond with Victorians and convince the electorate it’s not yet time.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Senior Victorian Labor figures say it’s all over for Jacinta Allan