Metro Tunnel failure: Secret govt docs reveal $15bn rail project won’t deliver promised service boost

Victorians were told the $15bn Metro Tunnel would deliver turn-up-and-go trains, doing away with the need for a timetable — but months away from the grand opening, the leaked project map reveals it won’t deliver its promises.

The promise of turn-up-and-go trains when the $15bn Metro Tunnel opens this year has gone off the rails after upgrades to existing lines were cut back or delayed.

Leaked government data obtained by the Herald Sun shows almost none of the service boosts on existing rail lines made possible by the Metro opening will be achieved.

The secret figures reveal that across the network there are likely to be up to 33 fewer trains running each peak hour than the number modelled in the business case.

The Metro Tunnel project was promised to deliver service boosts across the network — but almost none of them will be delivered when it opens. Picture: David Geraghty

Passengers along the Sandringham line will be the worst affected by the cutbacks, with the potential for an extra eight peak-hour services scaled back to just two.

Commuters in the north of Melbourne will also be left waiting at platforms, with a total of just four services an hour in peak periods along the Upfield line – the same as for the past three years.

A promise of 16 peak-hour services along the Craigieburn line has been watered down to 10, while commuters coming from the booming western suburbs are likely to have six fewer services than promised.

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The public transport fail raises questions about the benefit-cost ratio for the Metro Tunnel, which has also blown its original $11bn budget by at least $4bn.

Confidential documents show the project has veered away from initial aims largely due to unfunded “interdependent” projects that were needed to “maximise the benefits” of the Tunnel – which will unlock capacity across the network as well as provide five new underground stations in inner Melbourne.

Commuters will not see promised boost to services when the Metro Tunnel opens at the end of this year. Picture: Supplied

Upgrades that have been unfunded include train turnback facilities, duplication of tracks, and signalling upgrades, which allow for more trains to run each hour.

When contracts were signed by former premier Daniel Andrews, he said Labor was “building the world-class turn-up-and-go train network Victoria deserves”.

But public transport users and the state opposition say it could be years before full benefits are realised.

Public Transport Users Association spokesman Daniel Bowen said Upfield’s poor service had plagued passengers for years, with service gaps of 40 minutes if a train is cancelled.

“All those problems would be helped by building the (originally planned) Gowrie turnback,” he said.

A promised turnback at Gowrie station could have delivered a vital service boost to the Upfield line. Picture: James Ross

Mr Bowen said “relatively inexpensive” upgrades could have “significantly enhanced passenger journeys”, and called for timetable boosts and service improvements to be made public like in other major cities.

“Having that detail I think would help people understand just how revolutionary (the Metro Tunnel) hopefully is going to be … and the value for money for taxpayers,” he said.

Opposition public transport spokesman Matthew Guy said falling short of modelled benefits once Metro opened was not a good sign for other projects.

“If the economic modelling is so far out for Metro Tunnel, what confidence can people have in the numbers for the $34.5bn Suburban Rail Loop?” he said.

The Cranbourne, Pakenham and Sunbury lines will run through the Metro Tunnel when it opens. Picture: Victorian government

Parts of the city’s busiest rail corridor, which takes in the Cranbourne, Pakenham and Sunbury lines and will be connected via the new Metro Tunnel, is one area where business case targets may be met.

The recent funding of a stabling facility in Kananook, along the Frankston line, could unlock more services.

Figures on potential capacity increases across existing lines once Metro Tunnel is running were advertised on the government’s public transport websites last year.

But they were recently removed, with a spokeswoman saying they were being updated.

The figures had shown a potential 71 per cent peak hour capacity increase on the Upfield line, 27 per cent on the Craigieburn line, 24 per cent on the Werribee line, 48 per cent on the Sandringham line, and 15 per cent on the Frankston line.

A Metro Tunnel spokeswoman said work to develop new timetables was under way and full details would be announced before the tunnel opens.

“This is standard practice around the world for the introduction of new major rail infrastructure,” she said.

“The Metro Tunnel will completely change the way Victorians move around our city and will free up capacity in the City Loop to run more trains more often across more lines.”

Government website archives reveal the now-scrapped promised service boost to metro lines. Picture: Supplied

On Wednesday, Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams said in response the frequency of train services would be scaled up over time.

“You can’t realise the full benefit of all of those other network enhancements until you’ve done the Metro Tunnel. It is the necessary first step to unlocking that future capacity, ” she said.

“Will there be a service uplift following the switch on of the Metro Tunnel? Absolutely. Will there continue to be over time? Absolutely.

“We haven’t actually released the timetable yet, it’s under construction as we speak. That timetable is going to be very important but it’s also not the end.”

Ms Williams said sequencing is “so very important” to also pave the way for other enhancements across the network, such as track duplications, signalling upgrades and train turn back facilities.

“You don’t build the second storey of a house before you build the first storey.”

But opposition major infrastructure spokesman Evan Mulholland said the project had turned out to be a “monumental stuff up”.

“Labor doesn’t deliver projects – they deliver debt, ” he said.

“They blew the budget, slashed the benefits, and now they’ve been caught out lying to Victorians.”

Originally published as Metro Tunnel failure: Secret govt docs reveal $15bn rail project won’t deliver promised service boost