Lord Mayor Nick Reece on course to win election, according to fresh analysis

Lord Mayor Nick Reece is on course to retain the city’s top job after a rollercoaster four-month campaign, according to fresh analysis.

Melbourne Lord Mayor Nick Reece is on course to retain the city’s top job, according to fresh analysis of tens of thousands of ballots.

The election analysis, conducted for candidates and obtained by the Herald Sun, reveals that the flow of preferences is set to deliver Mr Reece and his running mate Roshena Campbell a comfortable victory.

While thousands of votes are yet to be counted, the review of more than 63,000 ballot papers suggests Mr Reece will defeat the Liberal Party 62-38 on a two-ticket preferred basis.

Lord Mayor Nick Reece and his running mate Roshena Campbell. Picture: David Caird

Carlton great Anthony Koutoufides had been considered a chance to steal victory from Mr Reece following the distribution of preferences, but the numbers suggest he cannot leapfrog the Greens and the Liberals.

Of the 11 lord mayoral tickets, the Animal Justice Party is the first to be knocked out of the race, followed by Voices for Melbourne, Rip Up the Bike Lanes and businessman Gary Morgan, according to the analysis.

From there, current councillor Jamal Hakim is next to be knocked out, followed by Labor and former deputy lord mayor Arron Wood.

Lord mayoral candidates (from left) Labor’s Phil Reed, Jamal Hakim, Lord Mayor Nick Reece, Arron Wood, Anthony Koutoufides and Gary Morgan at the VCCI lord mayoral breakfast forum at Crown. Picture: Jessica Hooper

Of the final four tickets left standing, Mr Reece records 33.1 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals (23.6 per cent), the Greens (22.9 per cent) and Koutoufides (20.2 per cent).

Koutoufides’ votes are then distributed and largely split between Mr Reece and the Liberals, knocking the Greens out of the race in third place.

Mr Reece, who became Lord Mayor in July after Sally Capp stepped down, finishes with 62.1 per cent of the vote over the Liberals with 37.8 per cent.

Liberal lord mayoral candidate Mariam Riza. Picture: Supplied

Thousands of ballots posted on Thursday and Friday last week remain en route to the Victorian Electoral Commission and can be received and accepted until Friday.

While they may change the order in which candidates are eliminated, the voter trends are unlikely to vary so greatly to affect the final result.

The Herald Sun understands the analysis was conducted using a computer algorithm and was based on the recorded preferences of more than 63,000 voters, which were collated by the VEC and distributed to candidates.

One election insider told the Herald Sun it was clear that a large portion of voters ignored the candidates’ how-to-vote cards, which reflected the preference deals struck between teams.

As of 5.30pm on Tuesday, prior to the distribution of preferences, Mr Reece was ahead with 24.3 per cent of the primary vote, followed by the Liberals (14.6 per cent) and Koutoufides (13.8 per cent).

Mr Wood on Tuesday morning conceded that he and running mate Erin Deering would not win, having recorded a primary vote of only 10.2 per cent. The Team Wood website has already been shut down.

Arron Wood and his running mate Erin Deering. Picture: Kit Edwards

On the separate ballot for the nine councillor positions, the Liberals’ strong showing could secure two spots for their candidates Owen Guest and You Li Liston, a separate analysis has revealed.

But the party’s second spot could be lost to Labor’s Davydd Griffiths.

Team Kouta’s Gladys Liu, the Greens’ Olivia Ball, Team Wood’s Philip Le Liu and Residents 3000 president Rafael Camillo are favoured to get elected.

Team Reece should also claim two spots – Kevin Louey and Mark Scott – while a surprise winner is Innovate Melbourne candidate Andrew Rowse.

Anthony Koutoufides. Picture: Wayne Taylor

Under the preferential voting system, once primary votes are distributed, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are allocated to the next preferred candidate – where the voter has put No.2.

After this, the totals are counted again and the next lowest-scoring candidate is eliminated and so on and so forth. This process continues until one candidate receives an absolute majority of votes (more than 50 per cent).

Since Monday, more than 63,000 ballots have been tallied by VEC officials, overseen by scrutineers from each ticket.

According to the VEC, 136,563 voters are on the roll in the City of Melbourne.

In 2020, more than 90,000 ballots were returned from across the municipality.

The official result will be published by the VEC on November 7.

Originally published as Lord Mayor Nick Reece on course to win election, according to fresh analysis