Groom election: The final numbers that will determine ‘marginal’ status

There is one final factor that will determine whether Toowoomba’s federal seat will become what is defined as “marginal”. Here’s when we’ll know.

LNP candidate and Groom incumbent Garth Hamilton at pre-poll last week. Picture: Kevin Farmer

The wait to find out whether Groom will become what is determined as a “marginal” seat will continue throughout the week, as the postal vote count continues.

Counting continued during the Labour Day public holiday, and the Australian Electoral Commission had the numbers at about 55-45 in favour of incumbent Liberal-National Party MP Garth Hamilton at 2.30pm Monday.

If those numbers stuck, the swing would be about two per cent to high-profile independent Suzie Holt.

The AEC defines a seat as marginal when the two-candidate preferred margin is below 56 per cent for the winning candidate.

But there is a good possibility the two-candidate preferred count could change in the coming days, and it all comes down to the postal vote.

These votes show a large and typical gulf when compared to on-the-day voters.

More than 52 per cent of postal voters selected Mr Hamilton as their first preference, compared with about 39 per cent of on-the- day or pre-poll voters.

But in a trend that might worry some loyal LNP members, the primary vote of Mr Hamilton has dropped from 60 per cent at the 2020 by-election to about 40 per cent at 2.30pm Monday.

Even if the seat is defined as marginal, it will based on a contest between Mr Hamilton and Ms Holt – who has already announced she will not contest for a third time.

While Labor had an incredibly strong victory on the night, their national trend wasn’t reflected in Groom.

Labor candidate Richard Edwards’ vote slipped 2 per cent on the party’s performance in 2022.

One Nation and the Greens had minor swings away from them, landing on 9.28 and 5.55 per cent respectively.

About 75 per cent of the vote has been counted.