Groom by-election: LNP candidate Garth Hamilton expected to easily retain seat

One of Queensland’s leading political experts has offered his prediction on today’s Groom by-election results.

Lyn and Dennis Gillbard speak with Garth Hamilton at the Groom polling venue in Mort St. Wednesday. 11th Nov 2020

The LNP’s Garth Hamilton heads into today’s Groom by-election as the favourite to win the seat previously held by John McVeigh one political analyst says.

Queensland University of Technology political analyst John Mickel said he expected the LNP to “easily retain” the seat, which has since its inception only ever been held by the LNP or its preceding political parties.

“Historically there is usually a swing against the government of the day, particularly when they created the by-election,” Professor Mickel said.

“But this year, governments around Australia have been rewarded for their handling of the pandemic … in the Federal Government’s case that’s the economy.

“So I don’t expect any huge backlash in the by-election … it just hasn’t happened in any jurisdiction.”

Prof Mickel said it would be interesting to see what the turnout for the by-election would be, given it’s the third election for Toowoomba voters this year.

“The only thing on the line at the by-election is how much the LNP will win by,” he said.

Prof Mickel said the lack of a Greens candidate could boost Labor’s primary vote slightly.