Libs lead, but minority government certain: EMRS poll shows

The Liberal Party are on track to win the most seats, but Tasmanian voters look set to deliver neither major party a majority in Saturday’s election, according to the latest opinion polling.

Liberal MP Felix Ellis speaks to the media at Parliament Square in Hobart on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.

The Liberal Party are on track to win the most seats, but Tasmanian voters look set to deliver neither major party a majority in Saturday’s election, according to the latest opinion polling.

Polling conducted by EMRS on behalf of the Liberal Party shows the 2025 election likely returning a parliament similar to the one it voted in just 14 months ago.

It will mean the Liberals or Labor will need the support of the Greens or independents in order to form government.

The polling shows the government’s primary vote has lifted from 32 per cent to 37 per cent over the course of the election campaign, while Labor has dropped from 27 per cent to 26 per cent.

The Greens have remained steady on 14 per cent throughout the campaign and independents have declined from 20 per cent to 19 per cent of the stated primary voting intention.

At the 2024 state election the Liberals won 37 per cent of the primary vote; Labor, 29; the Greens, 14, and independent and Lambie Network candidates a combined 15 per cent.

That election returned 14 Liberal and 10 Labor members plus five Greens, three JLN and three independents.

Labor leader Dean Winter on the campaign trail on Thursday. SUPPLIED.

The EMRS polling shows the Liberals have built their lead over Labor from five percentage points (32 per cent to 27 per cent) at the start of the campaign to nine percentage points in its fifth week.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff has maintained his lead as preferred premier with support from 44 per cent of respondents, compared with 29 per cent for opposition leader Dean Winter.

Labor released its own polling on Thursday that it said showed Tasmanian voters had tired of the Liberals and would prefer a Labor government.

Liberal minister Felix Ellis appealed to Tasmanians to back his party.

“Dean Winter is getting desperate, he’s tanking in the polls, he’s on track for the worst result for Labor in 100 years,” he said.

“We’re looking for a majority government. That’s what we’re focused on, we’re focused on winning the trust and the majority of Tasmanians. And that’s the best way to certainty and stability.”

A PYXIS poll of 2204 Tasmanian voters carried out in late June revealed significant sentiment in the electorate that the governing party had been in office too long.

When asked “Which is closer your own view about the Tasmanian Liberal Government?”, 53 per cent of those surveyed responded “it’s time to give someone else a go” and 34 per cent agreed with “they deserve to be re-elected.

Those intending to vote for independents were most strongly of the view it was time for new government, with 73 per cent support.

A Labor internal analysis of multiple polls released publicly during the campaign shows that on a two-party preferred basis, a majority of Tasmanians would prefer Labor to from the next government.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Liberal MP for Clark Madeleine Ogilvie speak to the media at Kingborough Sports Centre on July 17, 2025.

The analysis gave Labor a lead varying between around ten and 19 percentage points.

Two-party-preferred preference flows do not necessarily translate well to Hare-Clark multi-member electorates, although Labor said it was a reflection of anti-government sentiment in the electorate.

Labor’s Josh Willie said that if they wanted a different government, they needed to back his party.

“The message for Tasmanians is very clear, if you want to change the government, the best way to do that is to vote Labor on Saturday, make sure there are enough Labor MPs elected to form government, to deliver a Labor agenda and to kick this 11-year-old Liberal government that is making an absolute mess of things across portfolios, whether it’s health, whether it’s education, whether it’s managing the budget.”

As polling day nears, more than 100,000 Tasmanians have already cast their vote by pre-poll centre, postal vote by phone, up from 74,000 for the same period in 2024, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission said.

Franklin has the most early birds, with 21,168 votes cast so far, followed by Braddon with 21,355; Lyons, 20,595; Clark, 19,426, and Bass with 18,530.

Originally published as Libs lead, but minority government certain: EMRS poll shows