David Killick analysis on Tasmania parliament’s no-confidence vote

For a little over a year, our new 35-member parliament has ran with fewer stunts than the last — but the shadow of uncertainty has returned, political editor David Killick writes.

Minister Eric Abetz, Premier Jeremy Rockliff, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett. Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff faces a no confidence motion. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

Even by the freewheeling standards of Tasmanian politics, Wednesday was an astonishing day in the House of Assembly.

The absolute rolled-gold chaos would be amusing if the stakes weren’t so high. We’re all on the same burning bus going over a cliff.

Tasmanians are highly politically engaged. News websites recorded bumper traffic on Wednesday and the Parliamentary webcast buckled under the unrelenting demand. (Blame budget cuts.)

Labor’s no-confidence motion laid on the table on Tuesday and had majority support by nightfall.

It prompted a flurry of panicked phone calls and messages and meetings and the hatching of plans well into the night.

For MPs in the ailing Liberal Party, there was the realisation they might be about to lose their greatest asset, a generally well-liked Premier who has no obvious replacement in the wings. And maybe their grip on government.

For Labor, it was something slightly different. The old saying about the dog that catches the car got a fair workout on Wednesday.

But the state’s budget crisis is undeniable. Something has to give and sooner is better than later.

But what happens now? This motion of no-confidence was in the Premier, not the government. A Premier who loses a motion of confidence typically resigns. But should Mr Rockliff visit Lieutenant Governor Christopher Shanahan and ask for a fresh election, is that the only possible alternative?

Some legal experts say that is the governor’s decision alone, taking into account the Premier’s advice.

But what weight does he put on the advice of a Premier who has lost the confidence of the parliament?

Is there anyone else who can command the confidence of a majority? Another Liberal? Mr Winter?

For 14 months, our new 35-member parliament has been operating with moderate efficiency. Gone have been the constant stunts and shenanigans of the last parliament.

But the old familiar uncertainty is back. It’s bad for business. It’s bad for governance. It’s bad for Tasmania.

We are the poorest state, with the worst health outcomes, the worst educational outcomes, the highest welfare dependency. On just about every measure of social development, we lag the nation.

The budget is broken and we’re sliding into debt. Tasmania cries out for good and stable government. Is there any sign of it in this?

If the state returns to the polls, will the electorate punish the government or the opposition who brought us to this point? Will another premier, another parliament, another government deliver better results?

The uncertainty of it all prompted Devils CEO Cath McCann to tears on Wednesday. There’s plenty to cry about for all of us.

Originally published as David Killick analysis on Tasmania parliament’s no-confidence vote