Both the Liberals and Labor could be punished by voters at early state election: Dr Robert Hortle
Tasmanians could deliver a rude shock to both the Liberal and Labor parties in the event that an early state election is called, according to a political expert.
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There is no reason to believe that voters will flock to either of the major parties if forced to cast their ballots at an early state election and both the Liberals and Labor could be punished accordingly, a political expert says.
At the 2024 poll, the Liberals suffered a 12.1 per cent swing and attracted 36.7 per cent of the primary vote, while Labor only enjoyed a minuscule 0.8 per cent increase in support to secure 29 per cent of the vote.
The Greens clinched a 1.5 per cent swing, while support for independent candidates rose by 2.9 per cent. The Jacqui Lambie Network, running candidates in the state election for the first time, won the approval of 6.7 per cent of voters.
Since 2006, the major parties’ share of the primary vote in Tasmania has plummeted by 15.39 per cent as the electorate has drifted towards minor parties and independents instead.
As Opposition Leader Dean Winter’s no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff continued to be debated in the House of Assembly on Thursday, Tasmanian Policy Exchange deputy director Robert Hortle said neither the Liberals nor Labor should expect the electoral trend away from them to be reversed if a state election is held this year.
“We’re seeing nationally that the trend has been towards a falling vote share for the two major parties. We’ve seen that at the state level, as well, and that continued at the recent federal election,” Dr Hortle said.
“So I don’t think that it would be a great idea for either Dean Winter or [Jeremy] Rockliff, if he stays as leader of the Liberal Party, to expect that they might improve their position at a new state election, especially if [they], or one of them, is seen as responsible for bringing Tasmanians back to the polls early.
“I think the general electorate sentiment is we don’t want to go back and have to vote again, and we don’t want to spend money on this at the moment.”
While the recent federal election result has been characterised as a thumping victory for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor, the results saw a continuation of the decline in both the major parties’ share of the primary vote and an increase in support for minor parties and independents, who doubled their aggregate primary vote to 31.7 per cent between 2007 and 2022 and increased it by a further 1.7 per cent this year.
Dr Hortle suggested that Mr Winter and Labor may feel “emboldened” by the federal result and the “wipe-out” of the Liberals in Tasmania.
“Potentially, that’s what is playing into this no-confidence motion, that maybe they think there’s a bit of movement for change, that they can ride off the coat-tails of that election result nationally,” he said.
“I think that is a pretty risky approach to take, and that Tasmanians are pretty good … [at] separating their feelings about state level political parties and federal level parties. So just because we saw support for federal Labor [in Tasmania], it doesn’t mean that we’ll see it necessarily for Tasmanian Labor.”
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