Liberals clinging to hope of a miracle in Dunstan by-election after first declaration votes strongly favour candidate Anna Finizio

The Liberals are clinging to an outside chance of a miraculous comeback in the Dunstan by-election as postal votes strongly favour their embattled candidate.

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The Liberals are clinging to an outside chance of a miraculous comeback in the Dunstan by-election after the first counted declaration votes strongly favoured their embattled candidate.

The Electoral Commission on Monday afternoon started tallying more than 8000 pre-poll and postal votes – at least a third of the electorate’s voters – as opposition recriminations mounted.

On Monday night, of the 2400 declared votes – mostly postal – more than 58 per cent favoured Liberal candidate Dr Anna Finizio, 37, compared with just under 42 per cent for Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon, 51.

The surprise surge, which party scrutineers said included at least 600 extra votes than Electoral Commission records, capped a day of chaos as it buoyed Liberals hopes of an upset victory after Dr Finizio, a lawyer, cut her opponent’s two-party preferred margin by 1.3 per cent to 52.5 per cent.

A result of more than 60 per cent of the declaration vote would have left them confident, but they said there was still a narrow path to overturning Labor’s jubilation.

Senior Labor Party officials, who were monitoring the count, still expected to pull off the first such by-election victory in more than 116 years, warning the spike would drop amid a closer pre-poll vote that will not be enough to rein in the margin.

As the Liberals’ state executive board met last night, under fire Opposition Leader David Speirs – who reportedly moved into a friend’s house at Payneham in Dunstan’s heart for six weeks during the campaign – appeared to earn an immediate stay of execution as speculation of a challenge evaporated.

SA Liberal Party Leader David Speirs insisted he would lead the party to the 2026 election. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Morgan Sette

After asking his Liberal colleagues whether he should quit, a defiant Mr Speirs on Monday insisted he would lead his party to the 2026 state election as he faced criticism over an admission he had “envy” of Labor’s factional machine.

Premier Peter Malinauskas described his comments as an “extraordinary response”.

While Liberal sources said there was a “disconnect between the anger of the party’s young members and MPs”, key challenger Vincent Tarzia publicly ruled out an immediate leadership tilt.

After going to ground following Saturday night’s abysmal result, Mr Speirs said he retained the “unwavering” support of his colleagues following the party’s likely “defeat”.

He also flagged new factional structures and tightening of background checks on future candidates.

“If there was even a handful of people who didn’t want me in the job I would exit but that’s really not the case,” he said.

An advertiser.com.au poll of potential future Liberal leaders found frontbencher Ashton Hurn, who will shortly go on maternity leave, the most popular choice, followed by Mr Tarzia and Mr Speirs.

A resurgent Greens, who recorded a shock 21 per cent of the primary vote, vowed to take their perceived popularity and target other Liberal MPs, including David Pisoni in Unley and Josh Teague in Heysen, along with Labor’s fledgling member for Adelaide Lucy Hood.

Greens upper house MP Robert Simms also vowed to unseat federal Liberal Sturt MP James Stevens, whose partner, the party’s state director Alex May, has also been heavily criticised for overseeing a “disgraceful” campaign.

Vincent Tarzia ruled out a tilt at the leadership. Picture: Russell Millard Photography

Mr Speirs acknowledged Labor’s current lead over the Liberals would be difficult to chase down.

“I’m counting it as a defeat,” Mr Speirs said.

“I think the margin will probably narrow significantly, I think it will get down to about 1.5 per cent. So it will be the most marginal Labor-Liberal seat, which it was before the by-election as well.”

He said the seat would have been lost at the 2022 state election had it not been for the personal vote of former premier and Dunstan MP Steven Marshall, whose resignation triggered the by-election. Mr Marshall held the seat by 0.5 per cent in 2022.

Mr Speirs said he would consider introducing a more structured factional system, similar to the one used by the Labor Party.

“It’s an option, it’s on the table. We should discuss the party’s internal discipline,” he said.

Asked about how such a system would work, he said the structure could include formally nominating a chair of each faction, who would then present ideas and opportunities to the leadership of the party.

“You could also then say that a ‘small-l liberal’ seat, Dunstan, that should go to a moderate. And that would be worked out that way,” he said.

But he said the party would want to ensure there was still “discretion around merit” for who it selects to be leader.

Anna Finizio with David Speirs at a press conference. Picture: Dean Martin

The Dunstan campaign was one of the most bitter in recent history, with both Labor and the Liberals launching multiple attacks on the backgrounds of opposing candidates.

Liberal candidate Anna Finizio came under fire for her role as a director of a failed family business that plunged into administration with debts of more than $22m. A leaked resume and cover letter also revealed she had applied for a job as an adviser to current Labor Attorney-General Kyam Maher while her party was in government.

It was unclear what had been declared to the party prior to her confirmation as the Dunstan candidate.

Mr Speirs said he expected there would be a tightening of the candidate review process.

Mr Speirs was a regular fixture on the campaign trail alongside Ms Finizio. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Morgan Sette

“It is pretty robust, but I think there will be additional questions added to the list, which you’d only really flush out when something comes to our attention publicly,” he said.

“I’m sure in the future we will be asking about job applications and things like that.”

However, he said he stood by Dr Finizio as the Liberal candidate, and hoped she would contest the seat again in the future.

“She was quite brilliant on the ground. She’s just the sort of person I want on the team,” he said.

But he conceded the Liberal campaign did not strike the right balance between statewide and local issues.

“I think we were right to hammer Labor on ramping but I think we could have been talking more about the local issues as well,” he said.

Liberal recriminations flew Sunday night as internal anger erupted over a lacklustre campaign and “disappointing” result, with the Liberal leader going to ground.

On Monday morning, he went on radio and revealed he had “canvassed” the possibility of his resignation before deciding to stay in order to pursue reforms within the party.

“I’ll be staying in this job,” Mr Speirs told ABC Radio Adelaide.

“I’ve canvassed many of my colleagues over the last 48 hours – since what is clearly not a good result in the Dunstan by-election for our party – and my colleagues were firmly in support of me continuing in this role.”

Mr Speirs said he raised his future with numerous people over the weekend, including members of parliament and those outside the political fray, and “everyone encouraged” him to stay.

Mr Speirs said he continued to believe he was the best person for the position.

“If I didn’t think I was the best person in the team at the moment to do this job and to lead the party with a level of unity … if I didn’t think I was the right person I would walk away,” he said.

However, since making the decision to stay, Mr Speirs said he thinks this is the perfect opportunity to take a leaf out of Labor’s book and consider a factionalised party.

“I know the Labor Party have a much more structured approach and I think we should look at that … I think formalised factions should be looked at,” he said.

“I’ll probably have the same overall approach in terms of the way I lead the party and bring my colleagues together but I can use this as a reason to take control within the party, drive a different approach to perhaps the party is run.”

No official changes have been made yet.

Labor's candidate for Dunstan, Cressida O'Hanlon, with Transport Minister Tom Koutsantonis at the 2024 Norwood Greek Festival. Picture: Facebook

At the end of counting on Saturday, Greens candidate Katie McCusker had polled 22.4 per cent of first preference votes – a rise of about 9 per cent from the party’s Dunstan result at the 2022 state election.

In contrast, the Liberal primary vote in the seat, which was vacated by former premier Steven Marshall’s resignation, had dropped from 46.7 per cent to 40 per cent.

The Labor vote had dropped about 3 per cent to 32.3 per cent, but candidate Cressida O’Hanlon is polling 53.8 per cent over the Liberals’ Anna Finizio in the two-party preferred count – a swing of 4.4 per cent.

Pre-poll and postal votes will now be counted but these would need to favour the Liberals by a large margin in order to overcome the existing deficit.

Transport Minister Tom Koutsantonis mocked Mr Speirs for supposedly attempting to separate himself from the Dunstan result

“I am surprised by some of his comments trying to distance himself from the campaign,” Mr Koutsantonis said.

“David Speirs was so committed to his campaign that he moved into Dunstan, he left his electorate and moved into Dunstan.

“I heard him (Mr Speirs) talk about his envy of the Labor Party. I think what people want him to focus on is his own party and his own policies.”

Originally published as Liberals clinging to hope of a miracle in Dunstan by-election after first declaration votes strongly favour candidate Anna Finizio