Black by-election: Liberal Party faces SA state election ‘annihilation’ after midterm whitewash result

South Australia’s Liberals are staring down electoral “annihilation”, party chiefs fear, after its disastrous Black by-election loss that has triggered its worst parliamentary slump in nearly a century.

South Australia’s Liberals are staring down electoral “annihilation”, party chiefs fear, after its disastrous Black by-election loss left it in its worst parliamentary slump in nearly a century.

Party leaders held multiple crisis talks on Sunday after Labor’s poll “whitewash” in the wake of David Speirs quitting amid a drug supply charge, which he denies any wrongdoing over.

Labor’s Alex Dighton, 46, beat Liberal opponent, Holdfast Bay mayor Amanda Wilson, 53, to become the southern suburbs electorate’s newest politician.

Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia, who sources said inherited a “complete f…ing s… sandwich” after securing the leadership from Mr Speirs in August, on Sunday conceded it was a “very disappointing result” but vowed “change” to rebuild its 13 lower house seats.

Leader of the Opposition Vincent Tarzia after the Black By-election loss with Heidi Girolamo MLC and John Gardner MP at Pavana Reserve, Hallett Cove. Picture: Russell Millard Photography

Party modelling, which sparked a major political row after being billed to taxpayers before the poll, is understood to have shown the Liberals were trailing four to five points pre by-election.

As a bitter internal blame game erupted over fears of a wipe-out at the 2026 state election, records show it's the Liberal’s worst SA parliament result in almost 100 years.

In the 1930 state poll, Labor premier Lionel Hill won 30 seats compared with 13 MPs to the Liberal Federation party, which Richard L Butler – grandfather of current federal health minister Mark Butler – led.

Premier Peter Malinauskas has 28 MPs in the 47 seat House of Assembly. Lower house speaker, independent MP Leon Bignell, is a former Labor member.

Labor became the first government in 116 years to win a midterm poll in March’s Dunstan by-election after former Premier Steven Marshall quit politics.

Liberal candidate for Black Amanda Wilson concedes the by-election triggered by David Speirs resigning from parliament. Pictured with Opposition leader Vincent Tarzia. November 16, 2024. Picture: Kathryn Bermingham

One senior Liberal warned of “annihilation” in 16 months’ time without dramatic change.

“We were faced with a unique set of circumstances in Black, but it speaks to a broader problem that our brand is completely f…ed,” they said.

“Either (we all) buy into rebuilding or we will be obliterated in 2026. If this is any indication … there will be nothing left. There’s no time. Wake up or be wiped out.”

Stephen Patterson Picture: NewsWire / Ben Clark

Josh Teague, left, and former Opposition leader David Speirs. Picture: Zayda Dollie

Some officials believe the midterm result had specific local challenges but others fear a similar swing would turf frontbench MPs including deputy leader John Gardner in Morialta, Josh Teague in Heysen, Stephen Patterson from Morphett and Matt Cowdrey in Colton.

It would also threaten Mr Tarzia’s Hartley, Unley, which Liberal MP David Pisoni is retiring from, and Jack Batty’s Bragg.

Jack Batty. Picture: Russell Millard Photography

Liberal front bench MP Matt Cowdrey. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

“This outcome boils my p..s because we should be staring down a third term at the moment rather than losing another seat held by a former leader,” another said.

Other optimistic sources say unity is key between the right conservative faction that controls operations and the moderate branch with a parliamentary majority.

One said: “The result is a real blow, but if we pull together with unity and discipline, we still have time to get back on track.

“The election is in March 2026. But the electorate want to hear us talking about their issues, not about ourselves.”

Sources angrily criticised people wanting to “rule over ashes rather than govern” and others “happily p…ing in the wind for the last few years, but it’s now blowing back in their faces”.

Another powerbroker said the “reality is it’s catastrophic but not unexpected”, adding: “How do you fix it before the next election? It’s not going to be easy.

“You reap what you sow. This is what happens when you don’t really believe in anything.

Premier Peter Malinauskas with Labor’s new MP Black Alex Dighton at the Boatshed Cafe, Hallett Cove. Picture: Russell Millard Photography

“Maybe it’s a clear out we need, because there’s talent waiting in the wings.”

Latest Electoral Commission data shows Mr Dighton, a father of two, won almost two thirds of the primary vote with huge double digit swings in all nine polling stations.

Senior government sources said Labor hoped “we would just get over the line but this result – everyone is stunned”: “A government three years old – to be getting a 13 per cent swing is just beyond our wildest dreams.”

While Labor has an almost 11 per cent margin, this is expected to tighten to between eight and 10 per cent after almost a third of 26,550 electors voted early.

Liberal sources warned of deep concern at repeating the 2021 Western Australian election wipe-out that left with two MPs.

“There aren’t many ‘glass half full’ types left in the party but it’s hard to see us avoiding what has beset the hapless WA Liberals,” another source said.

Sources argued the Black campaign was solid, with policy initiatives – some of which Labor copied – that was lacking in Dunstan.

Lawyer Ms Wilson, a mother of three, of Glenelg North – located outside the electorate – was a decent hardworking candidate although was politically naive about her successful background.

Some suggested Marion councillor Jana Mates was the “front runner” but Ms Wilson became a Liberal member the day before she was unveiled.

Jana Mates was considered the front runner. Picture: supplied

Officials argued Mr Speirs quitting had “cauterised” internal disputes and were aghast when he endorsed Ms Wilson outside court on Friday.

Federal concerns were dismissed as the national brand was strong and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was battling a cost of living backlash.

Originally published as Black by-election: Liberal Party faces SA state election ‘annihilation’ after midterm whitewash result