Russia now caught in a spider’s web of drone warfare

The Ukrainians’ stunning raid on Russian bombers fully debunks Putin’s personal and national mythology and shows how exposed and weak he and his regime are, writes Pete Shmigel.

The destruction by Ukraine of 40 of Russia’s best strategic bombers is of immense significance in several respects. And it may be the beginning of the end of the four-year-old, full-scale war.

First, the technological innovation and audacity of Ukraine’s attack is unparalleled in warfare’s history.

“Operation Spider’s Web”, directly managed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, took place nearly simultaneously at five separate air bases, one more than 4000km inside Russia, and featured low-cost, handheld drones smuggled by vehicles into the vast Eurasian country.

It marks a major milestone in the transformation of the war – and indeed warfare itself – to primarily drone-based combat.

With less manpower, it perfectly suits Ukraine to use $500 drones to destroy $150m aircraft; the “battlefield of drones” is Ukraine’s preferred place to fight.

Given all wars are ultimately about their cost/benefit to combatants, the attack represents a huge cost to Putin’s Russia. The least substantial part of this cost is the $8bn total cost of the destroyed aircraft.

Columns of smoke rise from Russia's Belaya air base located over 4000kms from Ukraine. Drones were used to destroy Russian bomber aircraft, were hidden in truck containers. Picture: X

What is costlier to Moscow is strategic – and Zelensky knows it. He has struck Putin where it most hurts – his pride and prejudices.

Just as one third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has been eliminated, so has the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative that it is winning the war. That claim has no credibility when one compares this historic loss with the tiny gains that Russia has been gruesomely grinding out in eastern Ukraine.

In this image released June 1 by a source in the Ukrainian Security Service shows a Ukrainian drone striking Russian planes deep in Russia's territory. Picture: Ukrainian Security Service via AP

Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it did three years ago and Spider’s Web shows that Putin’s military cannot even control its own land and airspace, let alone defeat a relentlessly resistant Ukraine.

This speaks to a further cost at the level of massacred myth. For his 20-plus year tenure, and particularly during his invasion of his smaller, democratic neighbour, Putin has promoted Russia as a global power fulfilling a neo-imperial destiny.

Much of Putin’s support among everyday Russians is based on this “strong country and strong man” positioning.

The Ukrainians’ raid fully debunks Putin’s personal and national mythology.

It shows how exposed and weak he and his regime are. If the country’s elite, interested only in wealth, act against him, Putin is done.

However, where the cost is highest to Russia is a very practical one. Strategic bombers which launch intercontinental nuclear missiles are a main way that a country projects its power.

They literally give it global reach. Russia’s global reach has now been massively curtailed; it is now fully vulnerable to any threats from the US or China.

It’s one thing to worry about beating Ukraine; it’s another level to be totally exposed to competing superpowers.

President Trump accused Zelensky of “not holding any cards”. Spider’s Web, which Ukraine didn’t consult the US about, might be the Ukrainian President’s ace in the hole.

By showing he can wipe out Russia’s airfleet, he now has leverage for a negotiated settlement closer to Ukraine’s terms. That starts with an unconditional ceasefire and the repatriation of 20,000 kidnapped children. Let that be the reward for this extraordinary feat of arms.

Pete Shmigel is an adviser to the Ukrainian Security and Co-operation Centre in Kyiv

Originally published as Russia now caught in a spider’s web of drone warfare