‘Totally tanked’: Labor’s by-election disaster

Labor powerbrokers will hold urgent meetings in the coming days as the by-election post-mortem gathers steam, with party leaders desperate to claw back support ahead of the October state election.

Labor powerbrokers will hold urgent meetings in the coming days as the by-election post-mortem gathers steam, with party leaders desperate to claw back support ahead of the October state election.

If the weekend’s extraordinary swing of nearly 18 per cent against the party in its heartland seat of Ipswich West was replicated across Queensland, the government would be whittled down to just three seats.

Woodridge, Gladstone and Bundamba would be the only electorates held, while a swing of 15 per cent would leave the party with just 11 MPs sitting on opposition benches.

The party’s defeat in Ipswich West was compounded by voters abandoning Labor in Inala, which was retained by the government despite a primary support collapse of more than 30 per cent.

LNP insiders cautiously tempered analysis given by-elections can fluctuate wildly, but a party source said both swings were a “huge kick in the guts” for Labor.

“Taking in Brisbane City Council as well, the Labor vote has totally tanked,” they said.

“Of course it’s a by-election so it’s an exaggerated result but some of the anecdotal stories of people coming up who were public servants and rusted-on Labor supporters who had just had enough.”

Premier Steven Miles faces the media following a huge swing against the government in two by-elections. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen/The Australian

The source said even if the swing was halved, a large number of critical seats for the Labor government would be vulnerable, including Energy Minister Mick de Brenni, Transport Minister Bart Mellish, Resources Minister Scott Stewart and Fire and Disaster Recovery Minister Nikki Boyd.

“Half the cabinet,” the insider said. “Suddenly, the focus goes from winning seats to sandbagging seats.”

Opposition insiders said there were parallels with the Ipswich West loss and the 2014 by-elections in Stafford and Redcliffe where both were lost by the LNP Newman government ahead of the party’s defeat in 2015.

Another LNP MP said it was fraught with danger to assume swings from by-elections when considering how a state election will unfold.

But they said the overall atmosphere and anti-Labor sentiment voiced on by-election booths was revealing of a trend against the government.

“We’ve just got to hold our nerve and stay on those things that really matter to people but, if anything, it’s very reassuring from the comments that were given on the booths,” they said.

Labor figures will meet with state party secretary Kate Flanders this week where a review of the elections will begin.

It’s expected the party’s focus will involve turning the blowtorch on the LNP rather than assessing internal issues, with a number of senior figures blaming a perceived lack of scrutiny on Opposition Leader David Crisafulli.

But a Labor MP told The Courier-Mail the collapse in support in a range of polls across the state on Saturday proved “we need a different strategy”.

The underwhelming performance from One Nation in the city where Pauline Hanson’s political career began was also noted by a range of figures from across the spectrum.

One Nation suffered a swing against the party of nearly 4 per cent to be easily eclipsed by Legalise Cannabis and finished in fourth place in a field with no Greens candidate.

Labor insiders hypothesised if Mr Crisafulli’s conservative approach to crime and treaty would sway One Nation voters to the LNP.

But Senator Hanson insisted her party was steadying itself for a “strong result” in October.

“I am very pleased to see the back of Labor in Ipswich West,” she said.

“Overall, it’s abundantly clear there is an appetite in Queensland to get rid of Labor at the October election.

“The cost of living, escalating crime and the housing crisis are hitting people hard and they think Labor has no solutions.”

Originally published as ‘Totally tanked’: Labor’s by-election disaster