Qld election analysis: Labor’s strange sense of calm in face of certain oblivion

Labor MPs are privately holding hope that the third-term government is in with a chance at a fourth, despite all signs pointing to the opposite, writes Hayden Johnson.

This election will be a calm and calculated removal of the Labor Party, or polling is very wrong.

The first week of the campaign is almost done and Labor MPs are privately holding hope the lack of anger in their communities indicated the third-term government is in with a chance at a fourth.

There’s no baseball bats, they insist.

While it might breed optimism in Labor, Queenslanders are likely following the trend of the recent UK election when voters decided a year out it was time for change.

In July 2023 Labour’s primary vote of 46 per cent was miles ahead of the Conservative’s 27 per cent.

While the major parties’ primaries would fall to 46-27 per cent on election day – largely through Nigel Farage’s surging Reform UK party – it indicated voters had long made up their minds.

State Development Minister Grace Grace together with Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Richard Walker

That’s the challenge facing Queensland Labor.

Despite the best effort of Premier Steven Miles, voters appear to simply desire a new government.

They’re not overly inspired or impressed by the platform of slogan policies presented by the LNP, but the emerging theme is anyone but Labor.

Polling repeatedly points to a convincing defeat of the nine-year Labor government, but you wouldn’t know it from the optimism of marginal seat MPs.

Even Tom Smith, the man in the state’s tightest seat of Bundaberg, is optimistic about his chances come October 26.

He’s expected to receive several senior ministers – even Premier Steven Miles – in the electorate before the end of the campaign.

It doesn’t indicate a party facing oblivion.

Adding confusion to Labor’s strategy then, was the location of its key energy plan promise for regional Queensland.

Premier Miles and his deputy made the announcement of a second publicly-owned energy retailer in Mackay – a seat Labor didn’t even lose in Campbell Newman’s charge up George St in 2012.

Every minister acknowledges there’s going to be a swing against Labor this election, but the campaign pushes on.

Queenslanders can look at the LNP’s campaign to get a strong read on how the government is faring.

Like he has done for four years, Mr Crisafulli is running a quiet, stage-managed campaign with little room for an unplanned moment.

He’s facing the pressure of the media each day and continuing not to detail critical policies.

The would be Health Minister Ros Bates should the LNP be elected. Picture: Liam Kidston.

Despite prosecuting health for almost four years Mr Crisafulli still can’t tell the state what ambulance ramping target he and his would-be registered nurse health minister Ros Bates would be. Does he have a figure?

Asked on Thursday what target Ms Bates would be held to deliver, the LNP leader deflected and declared it would only be revealed when the government releases the latest quarterly health data.

He then asked journalists to pressure the government to release said data – only then would Queenslanders be rewarded with an LNP ramping target.

It’s not good enough for a political party that’s stood next to victims of the state’s shocking ambulance ramping to then blame a lack of data for not having a policy.

Instead, Ms Bates witheringly wrote a letter to Health Minister Shannon Fentiman demanding that quarterly data be released.

It might as well have been written on bog roll.

Time’s up for vague dithering and politicking – Queenslanders want a clear plan to fix this “health crisis” they’ve experienced and heard so much about.

Positive shoots for the government are emerging in the inner-city electorates where support for the Greens appears to be softening.

MPs in those electorates argue the tide rushing towards the minor party at previous state and federal elections has slowed.

Mr Miles’s worthwhile effort to relieve families of cost-of-living pressures has taken the sting out of what would be a sharp policy attack from the Greens.

Cooper MP Jonty Bush campaigning in Bardon. Picture: John Gass

Labor’s attempts to promote “evidence-based” youth crime solutions are resonating with these younger and typically more highly-educated voters in Brisbane and – for the first time in 10 months – is offering resistance to the LNP’s runaway crime narrative.

As Cooper MP Jonty Bush rightly points out, voters in her electorate are also pleased with the environmental and social credentials of the Labor left Premier Miles.

It neutralised a key Greens’ key policy position and forced the party to refocus on rental support and expanding state-provided services.

Since 2020 the Greens have become a more divisive minor party with unwavering support of Palestine blamed for inciting violence and abuse at Jews and other minorities.

Expect Labor to go door-to-door and quietly exploit this.

Moment of the week: Zeb the Mackay local yelling ‘hey mate’ at Premier Steven Miles from a shopping centre massage chair – then peppering him about fixing the Bruce Highway while plonked in the chair.

Originally published as Qld election analysis: Labor’s strange sense of calm in face of certain oblivion