Battleground seat revealed as Qld heads for a hung parliament in 2024 state election

David Crisafulli has adamantly ruled out doing any deals with the crossbench to become Queensland’s next Premier.

• Editor’s view: Countdown to minority

David Crisafulli has adamantly ruled out doing any deals with the crossbench to become Queensland’s next Premier, after polling showed both major parties were heading towards a minority government scenario in 2024.

It comes after Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk insisted a $1.3bn pledge to build the CopperString energy project was not made to appease Katter’s Australian Party, whose support could be crucial in deciding the next state government.

Ms Palaszczuk faced questions on Monday for the first time about a YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail that showed her personal popularity diving and Labor trailing the LNP 52-48 on a two-party vote.

Ms Palaszczuk reiterated her pledge not to do deals with minor parties, despite the poll showing both major parties would fall short of a majority at the October 2024 state election.

Today, the Opposition Leader said “Queenslanders need stability”, and insisted “the only people talking about doing deals is a very, very desperate government”.

“Queenslanders need stability, and they need a government that listens, and they need a government that has the right priorities,” he said.

Asked again whether he would be open to forming a government with any of the minor parties, Mr Crisafulli said “no”.

“The only person talking about deals is the Premier,” he said.

CopperString chief executive Joseph O’Brien is the nephew of federal MP Bob Katter.

Ms Palaszczuk visited Townsville on Monday to announce $1.3bn funding to start early works on the $5bn CopperString project, which has been championed by the Katter’s Australia Party.

The project will facilitate the extraction of about $500bn in critical minerals from northern Queensland.

Development rights for the project were previously bought by the state government for an undisclosed amount from C U String, run by Joseph O’Brien, the nephew of federal MP Bob Katter.

The major investment comes after last week’s YouGov poll revealed Ms Palaszczuk was no longer preferred Premier, prompting her to insist Queenslanders “know my track record”.

“We have to work a lot harder and I have to work harder – I know that,” she said.

“The only poll that matters is on election day and we’ve been in worse positions before.”

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at a media announcements on CopperString in June. Picture: Shae Beplate.

Polling released exclusively by The Courier-Mail last week shows Labor and the LNP failing to secure the 47 seats needed to form a majority government – forcing deals with the crossbench.

The 52-58 per cent two-party vote represents a 5.2 per cent swing against the Palaszczuk government, enough to lose 10 seats to the LNP.

It would leave Labor with 42 seats and the LNP with 44 – short of the 47-seat majority needed.

With the Greens expected to hold their two seats and a chance of winning several more, the minor party could hold the key to pushing Labor to the verge of re-election.

Labor could also seek the support of Noosa independent Sandy Bolton, who Ms Palaszczuk recently named chairwoman of a committee to tackle youth crime.

In Noosa, the LNP has selected high-profile Mayor Clare Stewart as its candidate in an attempt to win back the idyllic seaside seat from the two-term independent MP – boosting its own chances and pushing Ms Palaszczuk towards a possible deal with the Greens.

Independent Noosa MP Sandy Bolton. Picture: Lachie Millard

Ms Bolton won Noosa off the opposition in 2017 and cemented her standing in 2020 with a large 4.3 per cent swing towards her over the LNP’s James Blevin.

Winning Noosa would give the LNP 45 seats, opening the door for negotiations with the more sympathetic Katter’s Australia Party or One Nation to form a minority government.

An LNP spokesman insisted, however, that “no deals will be considered”.

In the current parliament, Labor holds 52 seats and the LNP 34, while a seven-person crossbench includes three Katter’s Australia Party MPs, two Greens, one One Nation and one independent.

Polling last week put David Crisafulli’s LNP marginally shy of the 13 seats it needs to win majority government, with the predicted 5.2 per cent swing against Labor delivering only 10.

It puts the opposition at 44 seats, three short of forming a majority government.

In Labor’s danger zone are Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay and Caloundra – considered Covid-19 seats won by the ALP in 2020 due to Ms Palaszczuk’s handling of the pandemic.

Minister Craig Crawford’s Barron River and the three seats of Thuringowa, Townsville and Mundingburra – considered ground zero of the state’s crime epidemic – are also expected to fall to the LNP.

Education Minister Grace Grace. Picture: Liam Kidston

Redlands and Aspley, held by Ms Palaszczuk’s right-hand Assistant Minister Bart Mellish, could also be Labor losses.

A rising Greens vote is likely to see the party hold its two seats of Maiwar and South Brisbane, and the party has high hopes to win several more.

It has pledged to never form a minority government with the LNP, making Labor the only option in a hung parliament.

An attack by the Greens also threatens Labor’s inner-city electorates of Cooper and McConnel, held by first-term MP Jonty Bush and Education Minister Grace Grace respectively.

Cooper – covering Ashgrove, Red Hill, Paddington, Milton and Kelvin Grove – could fall to the Greens if the minor party can find 1509 first-preference votes to overcome Ms Bush.

McConnel, which includes New Farm, Newstead, Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley, is considered more of an outside chance for the Greens, with 2353 votes needed to overcome Labor and the experienced Ms Grace.

Originally published as Battleground seat revealed as Qld heads for a hung parliament in 2024 state election