Why Toowoomba North should no longer be considered a swinging seat

The once marginal Labor electorate has been won by the LNP at the last four elections. Here’s what’s happening.

Toowoomba North should no longer be considered a swinging seat, at least for now, a University of Southern Queensland political commentator says.

Professor Geoff Cockfield said Trevor Watts’ fourth consecutive win for the LNP in the seat that had been held by Labor multiple times in the past, showed “it’s no longer really a swinging seat”.

He said there were several factors that were contributing to that, including demographic changes and incumbency.

“Incumbency is worth somewhere between two to five per cent usually, but it’s interesting in the seats that did change hands (on Saturday night) from the LNP to Labor (Caloundra and Pumicestone), they had their LNP MPs retiring … it may have made a difference,” he said.

“There is also this regional effect,” he said.

“Toowoomba might be in southeast Queensland, but demographically it’s not.

“Outside of the southeast, the LNP did increase their share of the vote in many seats, the trouble is it was seats they already held.

Prof Cockfield said despite this, Labor should not give up hope on ever winning Toowoomba North again.

“If you look at Toowoomba North it cuts up into Highfields, and as Highfields has grown it’s got a different demographic to the more working class demographic in the north of Toowoomba,” he said.

“In coastal areas, you’re getting family influxes into new suburbs which turn seats marginal.

“You wouldn’t give up on it, as demographic changes can work both ways over time.”

Prof Cockfield said he wouldn’t be surprised if potentially more working class families were moving to the western Toowoomba suburbs and changing voting patterns in Condamine.

“But their vote is essentially diluted by the fact that it’s such a strong LNP seat,” he said.

“But in the future as Toowoomba grows, there will be a necessary redrawing of the electoral boundaries.”