Qld taxpayers slugged to fill multibillion-dollar hole in future state budgets

Cameron Dick’s controversial royalties increase has helped rake in a whopping $25bn from coal, but the State Budget has revealed this will shrink to a trickle of $5bn a year out to mid-2028.

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Taxes on Queenslanders will help plug the state’s revenue hole as the golden era of coal royalties comes to an end.

Treasurer Cameron Dick’s controversial royalties increase has helped rake in a whopping $25bn from coal in the last two years, but his latest State Budget has revealed this will shrink to a trickle of $5bn a year out to mid-2028.

But the coffers remain healthy amid a spike in taxes and other revenue gleaned from Queenslanders through property, payroll, and misbehaviour on the roads.

There is also an impending crackdown on tax compliance and overdue fines worth nearly $1bn.

Queensland will rake in $88.1bn in revenue in the upcoming financial year budget papers show, marking a $4.36bn drop in resource royalties and near $1bn decline in GST cash compared to 2023/24.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles (right) and Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment Cameron Dick during a press conference before handing down the 2024-25 State Budget, at Parliament House. Photo: Dan Peled

But a booming jobs and property market means the state government will rake in a combined $13.5bn in 2024/25 from payroll tax and stamp duty, increasing each year to until it hits an estimated $15.4bn in 2027/28.

Rising land values has also increased the state government’s land tax revenue, which is set to rise from $2.5bn in 2024/25 to $3.3bn in 2027/28.

A 20 per cent discount on car registration will set the government back $435m. But the measure is set to run out in September 2025, with revenue from those fees bouncing back to $2.47bn in 2025/26.

Mr Dick argued Queenslanders still had among the lowest tax burdens compared to other states.

“We remain committed to being a low tax state … and to maintain a competitive tax environment,” he said.

According to the budget papers Queenslanders pay $1052 less tax on average than New South Welshmen and $1061 less than Victorians.

The state government is set to make $794m in 2024/25 through fines and forfeitures.

Queensland taxpayers will foot the bill for the coal royalty revenue hole.

And an expansion in the state’s camera-detected offence program--- which whacks misbehaving motorists large fines for speeding, running red lights, or using their phones while driving--- will see an increase in revenue.

From 2025/26 the state government expects to earn $912m a year from fines and forfeitures.

Overall the state’s coal rivers of gold driven by sky-high prices and tax increases have tapered off.

And the unprecedented riches — of $25.9bn in just two years between 2022 and 2024 — won’t be seen again in the near future.

Indeed Queensland’s total revenue won’t return to 2022/23 levels until 2027/28.

Queensland Resources Council chief executive Janette Hewson said the State Budget again confirmed the importance of the sector and how Treasury had again underestimated the impact of a new royalty tier installed in mid-2022.

“Six months ago, the Government forecast coal royalties would reach $9.2bn this financial year but that figure has now soared to $10.5bn. Overall, the resources sector contributed 14 per cent of all State Government revenue, which is more than any other industry,” she said.

“Queensland’s resources sector is proud of the contribution it has made to our state that benefits everyday Queenslanders.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick delivers the 2024-25 State Budget. Photo: Dan Peled

“But without a fair and balanced royalty system that encourages new investment, our resources will remain in the ground, and no-one will benefit, and the biggest damage will be to small businesses and jobs in regional Queensland.”

Mr Dick argued the mining industry had continued to do well despite claims of doom and gloom caused by the increased royalties, with an extra 4500 workers were added to the coal sector from September 2022

“According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics private capital expenditure in the mining industry in Queensland went up by $1.1bn over the last year,” he said.

Mr Dick, in the weeks leading up to the budget, had warned a steep drop in the metallurgical coal price would hit the state’s coffers.

The budget papers confirmed the drop in coking coal price was driven by a decline in steel demand in China and India and better supply chains. Moving forward Treasury expects the coking coal price to “continue to moderate”.

Royalties from coal in 2024/25 is expected to be $6.2bn, before tapering off to $4.5bn in 2027/28.

Originally published as Qld taxpayers slugged to fill multibillion-dollar hole in future state budgets