Qld election: Rental reckoning dawns on Palaszczuk government

The Premier faces the threat of being wiped out as the fury of one particular group of Queenslanders threatens to throw next year’s election into chaos. SEE THE MOST AT-RISK SEATS

Annastacia Palaszczuk faces the threat of being wiped out of office as the fury of renters dawns on next year’s state election.

Labor’s most marginal seats are vulnerable to the depths of the housing crisis, with a high proportion of voters struggling to cope with crippling rental affordability in electorates held by the government.

Of the 20 slimmest-held seats Labor holds, 16 are above the Queensland average for either being low-income tenants in rental stress or are above the state average for the number of renters, according to analysis of government data.

Jackie Trad lost the South Brisbane seat to Amy MacMahon in 2020. Picture: Jono Searle/Getty Images

Terri Butler lost the federal seat of Griffith to Max Chandler-Mather. Picture Gary Ramage

The issue is compounded further in the inner city where the Greens plan to capitalise on the discontent.

The progressive minor party has shifted its legacy focus away from macro environmental policies and has narrowed its pitch, which has proven successful in recent years booting out state Labor stalwart Jackie Trad and federal frontbencher Terri Butler.

The Greens will reapply the strategy that increased its state seats from one to two and federal representation from zero to three — probing the inner suburbs to ruthlessly campaign on the concerns dominating kitchen table discussions, such as housing and cost-of-living more broadly.

The Courier-Mail can reveal the party has expanded its target seats from nine to 10, which are also all above the Queensland average for proportion of renters or proportion of low-income renters in rental stress, or both, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Department of Housing.

Labor’s most marginal seats are vulnerable to the depths of the housing crisis, threatening the Premier’s tenure. Picture: Dan Peled / NCA NewWire

In an exclusive sit down with The Courier-Mail, Greens MPs Michael Berkman and Amy MacMahon plotted their path to fill seats on the crossbench.

They anticipate retaining their seats of Maiwar and South Brisbane respectively, and reaffirmed their plans to gain Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes, Bulimba and Miller from Labor and Clayfield and Moggill from the LNP.

But the Greens have also set their sights on Labor’s seat of Stafford, further riding the wave of rental discontent in an electorate that falls in the boundary of the party’s federal occupation.

“Most people are feeling the results of one of the worst housing crises in a generation,” Ms MacMahon said.

“People are facing levels of rent they just can’t afford and the Labor government really doesn’t seem willing to do anything to stand up for renters.”

Mr Berkman anticipates the Commonwealth representation in the seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan will pave the way for success in the electorates that fall within the state boundaries.

He said feedback on the “west side” is voters are feeling heard by Member for Ryan, Elizabeth Watson-Brown.

“They have access to their local member in a way they’ve never had before,” Mr Berkman said.

Michael Berkman and Amy MacMahon mull crossbench success a year out from the state election. Picture: Josh Woning

A senior Greens strategist said the extrapolation of polling from RedBridge in September that showed the party’s primary support rose to 14 per cent would deliver victory in Cooper, McConnel and Greenslopes.

He said the swing would also place the Greens within striking distance of Clayfield, Moggill and Miller.

If the Greens boost their electoral haul to 10, it is likely the progressive party will wield significant power over a hung parliament.

A deal to form a minority government with the LNP has already been ruled out and Ms MacMahon said the party’s negotiating demands would be dictated by a democratic process among members.

“But given the scale of the housing crisis that we’re in now, we will be doing everything we can to push whoever’s in government next to put in place a rent freeze,” she said.

Originally published as Qld election: Rental reckoning dawns on Palaszczuk government