Qld bushfire forecast: State facing increased risk of dangerous grass fires

Conditions are perfect for extremely dangerous, fast-moving fires, the likes of which haven’t been seen for a number of years in Qld, firefighters have warned.

• Bushfire season: Everything you need to know

Queensland’s bushfire season is well and truly under way, with the Queensland Fire Department (QFD) identifying an increased risk of fires this spring, particularly fast-moving grass fires.

A perfect recipe of late summer rainfall and a drier than usual winter in Queensland has resulted in a significant curing event – in which grass dries and dies out – producing enough fuel to drive up fire risk.

Chief Officer Rural Fire Service Queensland Ben Millington said they had not seen conditions like this for a number of years leading into spring, potentially paving way for a hazardous summer.

A bushfire tears through Tara in 2023.

“We had a very wet back end of summer last year and a relatively dry and warm winter, so that’s certainly accelerated grass growth across the state in those areas,” he said.

“So all of those things coming together have resulted in this heightened outlook for the spring.”

The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), released its national spring outlook on Wednesday which detailed an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures across Australia.

There are several regions of concern for the state including much of southern and central Queensland, as well as the far north from Townsville up to Cape York and west to the Northern Territory.

Apart from Far North Queensland, areas at highest risk include the Scenic Rim west to the Darling Downs and Charleville, then north as far as Winton, including parts of the Central Highlands, Maranoa and Warrego.

“The increased risk at the top end is a bit unusual as it has seen elevated grass growth because of the flooding they had earlier this year and an unseasonal dry winter, and with above-average temperatures forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology we are expecting to see increased risk and fire activity in those areas,” Mr Millington said.

Aerial footage of the destructive Tara fires in 2023. Photo: Supplied

While the fire department is also looking at bushfires, its main concern lies in the increased vegetation growth around the state which can start hazardous grass fires.

Known to be extremely dangerous due to their fast-moving nature and ability to spread quickly, grass fires can travel up to 25 kilometres per hour and cause widespread damage.

“That is very concerning, because grass fires are very different to bushfires or forest fires, in that grass fires certainly travel a lot faster and we also see a lot of impact on farms and landowners in that regard as well,” Mr Millington said.

“I think it’s really important to point out that even if you live in an area that isn’t at increased risk, you still may experience fires.”

Over the weekend, firefighters battled seven grass fires throughout the Scenic Rim, with harsh conditions testing fireys' early on this season.

“This previous weekend in the Scenic Rim for example, we’ve seen these unseasonably warmer than average temperatures and windy conditions, and that’s something we generally would expect to see during summer,” Mr Millington said.

There have been multiple fires burning across the state this week coming off a gusty and hot weekend across much of the state.

This includes three ongoing fires as of Wednesday in the Scenic Rim around Beaudesert, Christmas Creek and Tamrookum Creek, as well as two fires near Warwick.

The fire department as well as other agencies conducted 10 planned burns since Monday, including one at Daisy Hill Conservation Park near Logan where about 200 hectares of dried grassland is set to be burned over Wednesday and Thursday.

Coastal and adjacent inland areas around central and southern Queensland have escaped heightened fire risk at least for the beginning of spring due to delayed winter rain, which Mr Millington said was quite the anomaly.

“We did see that burst of rain a couple of weeks ago, so soil moisture and fuel moisture is certainly in those places,” he said.

Fast moving bushfire which commenced on November 18, 2023 in the Queensland town of The Pines, near Millmerran. Picture: supplied

The southern interior region is likely to experience elevated fire risk during mid spring, driven largely by exposed grass and crop lands.

To help mitigate the risk of out of control fires, QFD alongside agencies such as Queensland Parks and Wildlife and private property owners conduct planned burns in order to clear fuel.

More than 400 planned burns have been reported from January to August this year, almost 100 more than the previous year partly due to increased risk, but also due to ideal weather conditions to conduct the burns.

QFD carry out planned burns year-around in the case weather conditions leading into the bushfire season are unfavourable.

“Planned burns are really important work, and our rural fire brigades have certainly been out undertaking, training and exercises,” Mr Millington said.

“So the brigades are certainly well advanced in terms of their training and preparations for the season ahead, we’re certainly in a good position to deal with any fires that we see a rise of over the coming weeks and months.

D Fire damage around Dalveen (near Warwick) Bushfires burning through the Southern Downs regional area near the Queensland to NSW border. Picture: NCA NewsWIRE / John Gass

He said the Department are well equipped with their resources heading into the season, including access to 160 aircraft and 27,000 volunteers across the state, but are always looking to attract new members across the 1400 brigades.

Looking forward, the Bureau of Meteorology long range forecast for September to November shows an increased chance of above-average rainfall for much of Queensland, as well as maximum and minimum temperatures likely to be above average.

AFAC spring bushfire outlook. Picture: Supplied/AFAC

Despite the rainfall outlook, the added element of warm temperatures is set to create ideal growing conditions for high fuel loads.

“Given the forecast of warmer conditions over spring and leading into summer, we’ll be very much keeping a close eye on that drying trend in our fuel loads, because that could see even a further risk of fire activity.

QFD are urging Queenslanders to prepare now for bushfire season by ensuring they have a bushfire survival plan, gutters and overgrown vegetation around homes is cleared and gather sufficient personal protective clothing and equipment.

For more information on how best to prepare visit the Queensland Fire Department website.

AREAS OF CONCERN

SOUTH EAST

Parts of the Gold Coast hinterland and much of the Scenic Rim, including Beaudesert and west to Rosevale.

NORTH COAST

Pockets of the Sunshine Coast hinterland.

SOUTH WEST

Toowoomba, much of the Darling Downs including Tara, Dalby and other areas in the Maranoa and Warrego districts.

Includes Toowoomba, Roma and Charleville LGA’s.

CENTRAL

Emerald, Blackall, Tambo, Jericho, Longreach and Winton.

LGAs west of Rockhampton through to Longreach, north to Winton and south to Charleville.

NORTH

Townsville area, including Hervey’s Range, Woodstock, Oak Valley.

Much of Flinders Shire, Richmond Shire, McKinley Shire, Cloncurry Shire and pockets of Mt Isa.

Includes Townsville, Charters Towers, Ingham and Mt Isa LGA’s.

FAR NORTH

Much of the far north spanning from Innisfail to Cape York, including Cairns, Cooktown and Weipa LGA’s.

Spans west through the Tablelands and Carpenteria to the territory border, including the Gulf of Savannah.

Originally published as Qld bushfire forecast: State facing increased risk of dangerous grass fires