Andrew Willcox, Michelle Landry set for election victory: exit polls

Voters in Central and North Queensland still appear rusted on to the major parties but experts say there could be a bigger showing for the minors on Election Day. Read the analysis.

THE Mackay Isaac Whitsunday region will almost certainly remain Nationals territory for the next term.

Early Daily Mercury exit polling places Whitsunday Mayor Andrew Willcox and incumbent Michelle Landry firmly ahead in the federal seats of Dawson and Capricornia.

On preliminary first preference data collected over the past two weeks, Mr Willcox leads in Dawson with an impressive 48.7 per cent of first preferences.

His chief competitor, Labor candidate Shane Hamilton, trails with 30.7 per cent of the primary vote.

Ms Landry, meanwhile, leads with 50.6 per cent of first preferences over her Labor challenger Russell Robertson, who has nabbed 32.3 per cent of the vote.

Andrew Willcox and Michelle Landry will almost certainly win the seats of Dawson and Capricornia. Picture: Contributed

Minor parties appear to have flopped but experts say final results should be higher.

One Nation is the largest minor with between 10 and 12 per cent across Dawson and Capricornia.

Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party barely registers, with a meagre 3 per cent in Capricornia and just 1.1 per cent of the vote in Dawson.

The LNP’s thumping primary totals must be viewed with some caution, of course.

The exit poll data, which is not statistically significant, was collected midweek during working hours, which means two-income families and young people would be under-represented in the numbers.

The poll also skewed towards older voters, who as demographic group tilt towards the LNP.

Nonetheless, University of Queensland political science lecturer Dr Glenn Kefford said the poll data fit with his expectation the Coalition’s primary vote would likely hold across much of Central and North Queensland.

“My expectation was really that for Central and North Queensland, the LNP primary vote was probably likely to hold up relatively well,” he said, noting the vote across Capricornia and Dawson had held up at 40 per cent or more for the past three election cycles.

“They’ve got a rock solid base in these electorates,” he added.

“When you’ve got a really established base, something has to go really wrong for you to lose significant parts of that base.

2022 Australian Federal Election – Dawson ballot voting paper. Picture: Rae Wilson

“Morrison still remains very popular in certain parts of Queensland and then less popular in say inner-city Brisbane.”

Though Labor will almost certainly not win in Dawson and Capricornia, the exit poll suggests the party’s primary vote has improved from its calamitous 2019 totals.

Then incumbent George Christensen secured a 11.2 per cent swing to create a 14.6 per cent margin for Dawson while Landry went from a marginal 0.6 per cent seat to a 12.4 per cent margin after a 11.8 per cent swing towards her.

Mr Hamilton has said during the campaign the best outcome for the people of Dawson would be for the seat to turn marginal so the money flows in the future.

It seems likely the LNP will lose some of the margin it gained in 2019.

“What (the exit poll) says is that Labor was coming off such a disastrous performance in 2019, they are starting from such a low base that the only way was up,” Dr Kefford said.

“It’s probably going to take a while for Labor to rebuild the trust and the relationship with many voters in Central and North Queensland.”

Griffith University politics guru Dr Paul Williams said the exit poll showed the region was “back to square one”.

“(The exit poll is) not scientific, but I think it is broadly indicative that Labor is not going to win these seats,” he said.

“These seats seem to be rusted on to the LNP.

“Albo has failed to cut through into regional electorates and economically-sensitive electorates where cost of living is critical and where climate change perhaps is not.

Based on exit polling, Dawson Labor candidate Shane Hamilton looks to have increased Labor's primary vote in the electorate compared to 2019. In this photo, Mr Hamilton stands at the Mercury House pre-poll booth in Mackay on May 18. Picture: Duncan Evans

“Labor will be scratching its head.”

Dr Williams added he believed the final vote count on election day would reveal a larger primary vote for minor parties across Queensland.

He also questioned whether campaigns were as vital and persuasive as they once were.

“Election campaigns appear to be mattering less and less,” he said.

“People are making up their minds.”

The money markets back the exit poll.

TAB has priced LNP victories in Dawson and Capricornia as near certainties.

For Dawson, TAB prices a Coalition victory at $1.10.

A Hamilton victory is priced at $8.

The betting firm prices an LNP victory in Capricornia at $1.03 and Labor at $11.

Exit polling:

Dawson: 566 voters

Capricornia: 164 voters

Originally published as Andrew Willcox, Michelle Landry set for election victory: exit polls