Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s impact on South East Queensland in coming days

As it creeps south adjacent to the Queensland coastline, the category three Tropical Cyclone Alfred will still pose a threat over coming days, experts have warned.

TC Alfred is expected to cause havoc for Queensland with huge waves and gale force winds regardless of whether it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is set to impact South East Queensland in coming days regardless of whether it makes landfall or not.

The Bureau of Meteorology on Friday morning said the category three system was located about 750km east northeast of Mackay and 770km northeast of Rockhampton.

“Alfred is forecast to continue moving to the south through the Coral Sea today,” the bureau’s latest update said.

“On Saturday it may take a turn to the south southwest towards the Queensland coast before tracking away from the coast during Sunday.

“There is increasing confidence that Alfred will stay offshore. However, Alfred is likely to be slow moving next week with some ongoing uncertainty as to how close to the southern Queensland coast it may come.

“Regardless of the track Alfred takes, severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales.”

The bureau warned for large and powerful to a potentially damaging easterly swell from abnormally high tides from today into the weekend.

TC Alfred is expected to cause havoc for Queensland regardless of whether it makes landfall. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

Weatherzone reported that Alfred was expected to remain a “severe” cyclone over the next 48 hours before moving into a less favourable environment with increased shear likely reducing it to a category two system.

“There is good model agreement that the cyclone will creep closer to the central or southern Queensland coast on the weekend tracking parallel to the coast, bringing gusty southerly winds and large swell to the coast,” it reported.

Overnight, Higgins Storm Chasing reported TC Alfred had whipped up wind speeds of more than 230km/h off the coast of Rockhampton.

Earlier on Thursday, the Bureau’s Jonathan How said the latest computer model guidance showed a coastal crossing was less likely, but the south east would still feel some effects even as it remained offshore.

Bureau tracking suggested TC Alfred would reach a category four system before dropping back to a category three system by the weekend and a category two system early next week.

A ridge to the south of Alfred is trying to push the system west towards the coast, while westerly winds to the north of Alfred are pushing it east.

The Tasman Sea ridge would need to develop more to push Alfred towards the coastline.

Satellite images have captured a rare sight of three tropical cyclones spinning over the South Pacific Ocean this week, Weatherzone reported.

Infra-red satellite image shows three tropical cyclones over the South Pacific. Source: Weatherzone.

The image above showed the three cyclones, Alfred over the northern Coral Sea, Tropical Cyclone Seru near Vanuatu and Tropical Cyclone Rae to the southeast of Fiji.

“None of these tropical cyclones are expected to directly impact populated landmasses during the next few days,” Weatherzone reported.

“However, the broad mass of cloud associated with these three tropical systems will cause rain and thunderstorms over some South Pacific islands in the coming week.”

Mr How said while the likely scenario will be that TC Alfred will remain offshore as it travels south, there were still a range of scenarios that could play out.

“At this stage, the expectation is that it will start to drift towards the south east and sort of do a bit of a … turn away from the Queensland coast, but still remain a category two system all the way into early next week,” he said.

“But overnight, it looks like some of the computer model guidance has backed off on the possibility of it crossing the coast, but it’s still likely to get close enough to the coast that residents will start to feel some of those indirect impacts.”

The weather bureau's Thursday morning mapping for Tropical Cyclone Alfred's predicted path, showing a peak intensity of category three.

Mr How said the closest the system will track towards the Queensland coast at this stage was about 300 to 500km offshore in line with Hervey Bay and K’gari (Fraser Island).

He went on to say the main effects residents will feel is wind, wave and swell with the risk of torrential rain unlikely if it remains well offshore.

“So we already do have strong wind warnings all the way from Rocky (Rockhampton) down to K’gari Island, that’s today, and we also do have hazardous surf warnings for the Capricornia and K’gari coast.

“So what that means is that we’ve got very strong winds up to 30 knots,” Mr How said.

The coast near Rockhampton has already recorded swells of two to three metres on Thursday, and Friday and is expected to reach up to four metres from Friday onwards.

“So that will create … very large and powerful surf conditions, so for people rock fishing and people on the boat and people further offshore snorkelling, could be quite dangerous,” he said.

Mr How said based on the current track map the wind and wave action will extend down onto the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed into a category three monster overnight, but is now a category four system. Picture: Weatherzone

Mr How warned beach goers to expect swells as high as three metres.

“These large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities like crossing bars, boat and also rock fishing,” he said.

Originally published as Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s impact on South East Queensland in coming days