BOM, Higgins dismiss long range forecast of 1000mm deluge

The long range forecast that parts of the south east Queensland, northern NSW and the Wide Bay could be in for up to a metre of rain over three days in early 2024 has been dismissed as too ambitious this far out.

A private weather watching Facebook page’s prediction that the Wide Bay could be in for up to a metre of rain over three days in early 2024 has been dismissed as akin to throwing darts at a dart board.

The post from Brisbane Weather, which has 137,000 Facebook followers, spread like wildfire, with more than 200 shares and 500 comments, many from those in the region who are desperate for rain.

While the Brisbane Weather admin said they were hesitant to share such a tight prediction, they did not shy away from narrowing the event down to the day it could all be happening – about January 26, 2024.

“I have a new one for you guys and am posting this due to my past predictions and to see what happens,” group admin Dave said.

A private weather watching Facebook page’s prediction that the Wide Bay could be in for up to a metre of rain over three days in early 2024 has been dismissed as akin to throwing darts at a dart board.

“January 2024 300-1000mm to fall on parts of Southern Wide Bay, SEQ, and northern NSW, this will fall in a short period of about 3 days. The date will be around 26th.”

The event would be caused by “either a very strong low from the coral sea or even a cyclone,” or more likely a weakening cyclone which would become a rain depression.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson said on Thursday the BOM would not validate or otherwise the predictions made by others. But they said their long range weather forecast, released on November 16, told a different story.

A private weather watching Facebook page’s prediction that the Wide Bay could be in for up to a metre of rain over three days in early 2024 has been dismissed as akin to throwing darts at a dart board.

“During spring, El Nino typically increases the chance of below average rainfall for eastern Australia and warmer than average days for the southern two-thirds of Australia,” they said.

“In summer, El Nino increases the likelihood of drier than average conditions for the northeast of Australia and warmer than average days across much of the eastern half of the country.”

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Higgins Storm Chasing, a group which has more than a million Facebook followers, said they could not back such a detailed prediction.

“Anything more than a week out is far too far out for specific predictions like that,” a group spokesperson said.

They said nobody could guess the likelihood of a cyclone weeks before it even began.

“We are waiting until 48-72 hours out at the moment to see if storms are possible,” the spokesperson said.

“Guessing a cyclone three months in advance is just throwing darts at the board and hoping to hit.”

Originally published as BOM, Higgins dismiss long range forecast of 1000mm deluge