BOM dumps global climate model outlook comparison

The Bureau of Meteorology has dumped a comparison of how its climate model compares to those produced by the US, UK, EU and Japan.

Bureau of Meteorology climate manager Karl Braganza said “we are moving away from focusing on individual environmental phenomena”.

The Bureau of Meteorology has stopped publishing an easily accessible comparison of its own El Niño – Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole forecasts with those of the US, UK, European and Japan.

A BoM spokesman refused to answer questions as to why it had blocked public access to multi-model comparison, simply stating “we have ceased providing third party information that is readily accessible via the originator’s websites”.

Easy access to the BoM’s climate model comparisons allowed farmers to weigh up the probabilities for themselves, such as last spring when the US, UK and Japanese forecast a wetting La Nina this summer, while the BoM’s model remained neutral.

The climate model comparison the Bureau of Meteorology has stopped publishing.

Farmers and agronomists are perplexed by the BoM’s decision and fear the information gap it has created would soon be filled with misinformation.

Bendigo agronomist and Cropfacts director Harm van Rees said “God knows” what people will use to fill the void, given “there’s so much fake stuff out there”.

Rupanyup grain grower Andrew Weidemann said the BoM’s actions seemed strange and it was “hard to understand why they’ve dropped this information”.

Part of the BoM’s reasoning may lie in criticism of its 2023 El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole forecast of dry conditions that instead led to widespread rain and floods.

Last month BoM Climate Manager Karl Braganza said as “our climate continues to change, our historical experience is less aligned to the present and future climate.

“Therefore, old methods of prediction have become less reliable and new models based on current information are a more reliable way to help the community and industry best plan and prepare for coming seasonal trends.

“We are moving away from focusing on individual environmental phenomena. In a changing climate it is more difficult to make predictions based on events when they are looked at individually – climate systems are complex and cannot be explained by just one influencing factor.”

The BoM has also ceased issuing its fortnightly Climate Driver Updates, ENSO Outlook Watch and Alert statements and using the ENSO dial.

International models’ outlooks can still be found by going direct to:

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

The UK Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Originally published as BOM dumps global climate model outlook comparison