Analysis: Why Ipswich West is such a key battleground for Labor

The result of the Ipswich West by-election today carries major ramifications for Labor, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

Premier Steven Mile with Wendy Bourne far left, s at Ipswich West with candidates ahead of today’s by-election, in the Ipswich Mall, Friday 15th March 2024- Photo Steve Pohlner

The scars of leadership turmoil that dominated the dying months of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s leadership will be exposed today.

Her ill-fated dash to Europe in August after locking children in watch houses and refusing to publicly meet victims of crime set off a leadership snowball that culminated in Ms Palaszczuk summer exit on December 10.

Steven Miles, Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick used Ms Palaszczuk’s two-week sojourn to fuel the leadership speculation that would hang above her until she capitulated.

Those months of distractions allowed David Crisafulli and the LNP to posture as a credible, less chaotic alternative.

It opened the door for Queenslanders – who so often resist major change – to consider the alternative.

Now Mr Miles, whose forces helped bring down Ms Palaszczuk, is in a desperate battle to hold Ipswich West and convince the state to give Labor a fourth term.

The loss of Ipswich West would push Mr Miles to the edge of becoming a lame duck premier.

At the United Workers Union, which ultimately made the decision to bring down Ms Palaszczuk, extra attention is being paid to Saturday’s by-election result.

It’ll indicate whether, as Newspoll predicts, seven of its aligned MPs are set to lose their seats in October.

Experienced political operators are relying on the “vibe” of pre-polling in Ipswich West.

Such is politics, that regardless of the result, both Labor and the LNP will attempt to spin it in their favour.

Nobody really knows where the government would be had Ms Palaszczuk remained premier, but Newspoll indicates the leadership change hasn’t saved the furniture.

While Mr Miles may say polls come and go, 18 Labor MPs – including five ministers – are now on the chopping block as the election looms.

MPs are privately praising Mr Miles for running a more open, positive and collaborative government than his predecessor.

That praise will be short lived if he can’t actually put them back in the fight.

Expect debt reduction to be put on the backburner in June as Treasurer Cameron Dick uses the ballooning coal royalty revenue to dish out cash across the state.

Labor insiders say Mr Dick’s budget will be the best chance to show Queenslanders Mr Miles is listening.

The problem for the government, though, is they might have stopped listening to him.

Originally published as Analysis: Why Ipswich West is such a key battleground for Labor