Peter Dutton confirms he plans on claiming Labor’s heartland in the federal election

The Opposition leader has doubled his visits to Western Sydney in the last year, in a bid to snatch seats from Labor’s traditional stronghold.

Peter Dutton and the Liberals have honed in on western Sydney in a brazen bid to snatch seats from Labor’s heartland, as they look to capitalise on a swing from the party in its traditional stronghold.

The results of last month’s council elections – in which swathes of western Sydney turned away from Labor – has ignited new concerns within the party of what the voting patterns will mean for next year’s federal election.

The Opposition leader, meanwhile, has ramped up visits to the region – visiting western Sydney more times so far this year than the last two years combined.

Mr Dutton has taken eight trips to the burgeoning battleground in 2024 – compared to four last year and two the year before.

The Liberals have also named Parramatta and Werriwa – which has been held by Labor since 1934 and was once represented by Gough Whitlam – as key targets at the 2025 vote.

Peter Dutton visiting western Sydney business Kypreos Group in September. Picture: Instagram

Mr Dutton confirmed to The Telegraph his party was aiming to win over Labor’s western Sydney heartland.

“Western Sydney is an economic powerhouse, but it’s a region that clearly the Albanese Government has ignored. For many years now, the modern Labor Party has neglected Western Sydney – once its traditional base,” he said.

“The Liberal Party has Western Sydney’s back, whereas the Albanese Government has completely failed Western Sydney. And we’ll be continuing to prosecute the case to the people of Western Sydney that we need to get our country back on track – because Western Sydney just can’t afford another three years of a bad Labor Government.”

The Coalition’s renewed focus on the region comes in the wake of damaging results for Labor at last month’s council election, a pattern analysts say embeds a swing from Labor kickstarted by Independent Fowler MP Dai Le’s shock win in 2022.

Peter Dutton on a walk through Parramatta car yards in Western Sydney in February. Picture: Supplied

Ms Le – who had campaigned on a humble platform of making the ultra-safe Labor seat of Fowler marginal at that 2022 federal election – claimed victory in a surprise result over Labor’s high-profile, if misplaced, pick of former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally.

Key results from the council vote, announced this week, include Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone, an outspoken independent, increasing his mayoral vote to a staggering 82 per cent – with Labor’s pick receiving just 18 per cent.

In South Granville, a ward of Cumberland Council, Labor’s vote collapsed from 65 per cent to 21 per cent, with the party losing a councillor – a result one Labor insider said “blew me away”.

And in Liverpool, Liberal Mayor Ned Mannoun was re-elected with an increased margin – despite the NSW Labor Government’s push to place his council into administration.

The change in fortunes means, after decades of being a set-and-forget region for Labor, western Sydney is now being honed in on by multiple candidates eager to rip seats away from them.

Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone. Picture: Richard Dobson

Mayor Carbone and MP Le have also formed a political party, Western Sydney Community, with the pair currently planning what seats they will run candidates in.

Multiple Labor sources said concerns were growing within the party following the council results.

“Labor can’t be complacent (across western Sydney), Fowler is historically Labor territory and I think Frank (Carbone) and Dai Le are doing a really good job of putting an independent base in Labor’s backyard. That’s a real challenge for us,” they said, adding “The two areas of concern for us would be Bennelong and Werriwa”.

Another party source said Australia could follow America’s lead, likening Sydney’s aspirational western fringe with blue-collar, working-class conservative voters in the United States.

“I think overtime that makes a lot of those seats really vulnerable,” they said.

The Liberals late last year held a shadow cabinet meeting in Penrith, while in March Mr Dutton appointed Lindsay MP Melissa McIntosh as a shadow Minister for western Sydney.

Peter Dutton in western Sydney earlier this week. Picture: Supplied

Mr Dutton also had dinner with Mr Carbone and Ms Le in April, at a restaurant within Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon.

His itinerary so far this year has included three trips to Parramatta, held by Labor’s Andrew Charlton, a visit to Werriwa, and two trips to Lindsay, held by Ms McIntosh.

“We’ve been on a lot of visits to Parramatta, and Werriwa recently,” a Liberal source said.

“Peter appointing Melissa McIntosh as shadow minister for western Sydney shows the importance with which we hold that region. Peter always makes the point that western Sydney is an economic powerhouse and we need to keep it that way.”

Rumours abound that popular Mayor Carbone could have a run at next year’s federal election, cashing in on his huge local polling figures by running for the Senate.

“My focus is delivering for the community that just elected me, and that is the Fairfield community – no matter what position I’m in,” Mr Carbone said when queried on his federal ambitions.

A federal Labor source told The Telegraph, in response to the Liberal’s new western Sydney front, that “over the last two years Labor has helped families in western Sydney with tax cuts, energy rebates, cheaper medicines and cheaper childcare”.

“The cost of living pressure that western Sydney is under would have been worse under the Coalition who opposed all this relief,” they said.

The Opposition leader with Parramatta Liberal candidate Katie Mullens. Picture: Supplied

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was in western Sydney on Friday, when he announced Labor’s candidate for Fowler, Tu Le.

Labor does have heavy hitters in the region, including senior ministers Jason Clare and Chris Bowen, but polling experts backed that a change in voting patterns away from Labor could be permanent, and not an anomaly.

“The new political landscape for Labor is that no seats are safe,” Redbridge Group’s Kos Samaras said.

“Labor do understand they have a problem in Sydney … If you were to go back 10 or 15 years and look at the current results in (western Sydney) areas in safe Labor seats, they’d think you’re crazy.”

“It is akin to what we’re seeing across the world – lower income, diverse working class communities, no longer have that automatic bond to Labor.”

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, head of politics and international relations at Monash University, said the western Sydney swing at council level could herald similar results at next year’s federal election.

“What’s happening in south western Sydney is indicative of what’s going on around Australia – we saw at the 2022 election, voters feeling highly supportive of non-major party candidates,” he said.

Anne Stanley, Labor’s Werriwa MP who holds the seat with a 5.8 per cent margin, said “I don’t take any vote in this electorate for granted”.

“I think we’re all marginal seats and that’s very much the way I look at it,” she said.

“We have a very intelligent, very switched on electorate who want the best representation they can get.”

Parramatta MP Andrew Charlton told The Telegraph following the council election “every election is a challenge”.

Originally published as Peter Dutton confirms he plans on claiming Labor’s heartland in the federal election